Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Desert Orchid said:
I'm indebted to a seldom [these days] seen forumite for highlighting one for the Welsh National and the reasoning is entirely sound.

We'll know more tomorrow but the chances are Secret Reprieve will go up 12lbs or thereabouts for his win at the weekend and I was too late for the 10/1 that was on offer. I've taken 7/1 this evening and I fully agree with my my co-forumite that this will go off around the 9/4 mark. I mentioned elsewhere that Native River probably will be taken out and Secret Reprieve will only have a 4lbs penalty so will be around 8lbs well in - that's 16 lengths in soft ground at the trip, which is a huge advantage - and will almost certainly make the cut.

I'm not given to over-excitement about ante-post bets because I know the pitfalls but, as I've mentioned before, once the betting public latches on to one that is officially lobbed in the price will collapse (eg Potterman 40-12/1 and Secret Investor 20/1-15/2 in the Ladbrokes Trophy) regardless of any other factors in play.
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I see Simon Rowlands has advised Secret Reprieve, reasoning that his true odds should be shorter than the 4/1 on offer this evening in a place or two. He doesn't say what price he thinks it should be but I'm wondering how often he tips a 4/1 favourite in a race of this nature.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I see Simon Rowlands has advised Secret Reprieve, reasoning that his true odds should be shorter than the 4/1 on offer this evening in a place or two. He doesn't say what price he thinks it should be but I'm wondering how often he tips a 4/1 favourite in a race of this nature.
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3/1 fav and 11/4 fav won 2 of the last four runnings....

The terrible ground conditions very often narrow the field down..when it's not abandoned...
 
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He’s a worthy fav but is 1/5 over fences and has fell already in non novice chases. And this is a brutal race in these conditions.

4/1 ? No thanks. There have been stronger favourites than him beaten in this over the years and I’ll prefer to take the double figure price e/w about The Two Amigos who is likely to run his race and if Griffiths can get the fractions better than last year will have these fully strung out 4f from home.

Unlikely to go ahead anyway but as I’m too twatted to look it up, when was the last trial winner to follow up ?. Feels like a long time.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
We'll know more tomorrow but the chances are Secret Reprieve will go up 12lbs or thereabouts for his win at the weekend and I was too late for the 10/1 that was on offer. I've taken 7/1 this evening and I fully agree with my my co-forumite that this will go off around the 9/4 mark.
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Nice to be right once in a while :whistle:
 
Big difference between being right and how you spoke about this bet. You grabbed my attention. Well done. A superb shout.
 
I've taken 9/1 Royale Pagaille to win any race at the festival.

I've only just got round to checking out the form of his win at Kempton at Christmas and it has bowled me over. I remember being seriously impressed on the day but the figures I'm coming up with are even more impressive.

On time ratings - never the most reliable, I admit - I have him only 4lbs behind Shishkin. On form ratings, he's in the 160s.

That would make him the most likely winner of either the RSA or NH Chase, assuming he stays and improves again, and has me worrying about my Galvin bet for the latter, which I never thought would be in jeopardy.

I would go as far as to back him for the Gold Cup if I could get 50/1 NRNB but I'll probably have to wait for that.
 
I've just read the article on him via the RP, not sure if you've seen it, DO?
 
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Paper or website, Marb?

Bookies up here are shut so wouldn't have access to it that way.

I don't buy the paper and only use the website for double-checking some form.
 
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Would it not make sense to take 8s for the NHC at Powers with the NRNB concession.

RSA a very tough ask for horses sans Festival form
 
Cheers, Marb. It didn't occur to me to check his his new OR compared with other novices as I thought there would be plenty higher than 152 and I wasn't aware of the extra 2lbs he was hit with this week until seeing that article you linked.

I usually check the Weekender for stuff like that but I haven't even read that yet. I've spent most of the last couple of days concentrating on the Betfair Hurdle.

Top novices on RPRs as per the Weekender regular feature:

Shishkin 170
Chatham Street Lad 163
Envoi Allen 162
Royale Pagaille 160
Protektorat 160
Monkfish 160

That's pretty lofty company.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken 9/1 Royale Pagaille to win any race at the festival.

I've only just got round to checking out the form of his win at Kempton at Christmas and it has bowled me over. I remember being seriously impressed on the day but the figures I'm coming up with are even more impressive.

On time ratings - never the most reliable, I admit - I have him only 4lbs behind Shishkin. On form ratings, he's in the 160s.

That would make him the most likely winner of either the RSA or NH Chase, assuming he stays and improves again, and has me worrying about my Galvin bet for the latter, which I never thought would be in jeopardy.

I would go as far as to back him for the Gold Cup if I could get 50/1 NRNB but I'll probably have to wait for that.
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If it's any help Maurice, he went in my notebook after Haydock, and I backed him for the NH Chase at 17/1 with a boost after Kempton. Specifically, the bit you'll be interested in is I had the Kempton performance a pound higher than the rating I gave Un Temps Pour Tout at Newbury. The RPR comparison has Royale Pagaille's run 11 pounds higher than UTPT's Newbury win!
 
Maruco said:
If it's any help Maurice, he went in my notebook after Haydock, and I backed him for the NH Chase at 17/1 with a boost after Kempton. Specifically, the bit you'll be interested in is I had the Kempton performance a pound higher than the rating I gave Un Temps Pour Tout at Newbury. The RPR comparison has Royale Pagaille's run 11 pounds higher than UTPT's Newbury win!
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Glad you're coming up with mega-figures too, Maruco!
 
Copied from the Longshot thread.


An ante-post longshot for the Festival:

Cepage 40/1 NRNB (PP) Ryanair

I'm coming up with G1 figures for his Chepstow win the other day. The Ryanair is his only current festival entry although it's possible he goes for a handicap instead, hence I took the lower odds with the concession.

It's arguably the hottest race of the meeting but if my figure is correct he wouldn't have many to fear, assuming they also run.
 
Slim said:
He's up to 156 so he's not exactly a dark one is he?
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The point is he's put up a performance that is a whole lot better than 156 Slim. He could run in a Grade 1 right now. If he turned up in the three mile handicap chase (20/1 Ultima), on the first day he could **** up as a novice off 156! That also gives you some idea of his price relative to Galvin's in the National Hunt Chase.

I have a chunky early antepost on Galvin at 25/1, but Royale Pagaille has put up a level of performance that's well ahead of Galvin, and whilst there might be more to come from Galvin at the trip, Royal Pagaille is now the more likely winner. Currently Galvin is half the price of Royale Pagaille and still available at double figure odds. So essentially Mo and I aren't putting him up as a dark horse, just as antepost value at his price.
 
He jumped okay at Kempton where he put a performance in that was off the charts Darren.

Cheltenham's fences are much softer than Kempton's these days as you know. He's also been with Venetia for two seasons now, and his jumping has improved significantly over that time, although I concede he can be guessy occasionally, and does have a mistake in him. If anything though he's beginning to look quick, low, fast, and economical generally, with a tendency to jump slightly left. All of which suggests he should jump round Cheltenham better than he did Kempton.

Galvin is the safer jumper of the pair, and I'd say if the two of them are within a length or two at the last, because of his style, you'd be covering your eyes if you're a Royale Pagaille supporter. And for that reason you couldn't be balls beep in either. They should have the what could potentially be a very good NH Chase between them though.
 
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tiggers1972 said:
I'm a big fan of Royale Pagaille.......but have reservations about his jumping at Cheltenham.
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He's entered in the Peter Marsh at Haydock on Saturday, off top weight. A horse myself and Maruco backed the last day at Aintree, Smooth Stepper, is also entered. I'm sure this Venetia Williams horse is all class but it would allow a few other horses to run off lovely low weights.

I'd be tempted to back Smooth Stepper each way. There's an inspection at Haydock tomorrow. He won on heavy there last season off a mark of 136. He had Lord Du Mesnil and Yala Enki back in second and third, so on only a four pound higher mark he'd be a major contender in this. He's 12 years old now so probably good that his trainer is giving him decent breaks between races.
 
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At the risk of incurring the wrath of the majority...

I took 25/1 Mother Earth for the 1000G this morning after reading Simon Rowlands's blog on cadence/frequency on the ATR site.

I wanted to check for info on my other bet, Miss Amulet, so looked up her form and the video only to notice Mother Earth finishing fast from the back at Keeneland.

There is no data for the race but the winner made all and MA finished second from midfield, so the pace probably wasn't over-strong yet Mother Earth must have made up at least eight lengths on Miss Amulet from the turn to overtake her near the line for second place. I imagine she will get a big mark-up for it, suggesting she improved a fair bit again from the fillies' mile race at Newmarket, in which she also came from the back. (That was the race in which she and Snowfall got thier IDs muxed ip.)
 
Defi still looks overpriced for the Clarence House. 7/2 now at Hills

This is surely too short a trip for Waiting Patiently. Ran a cracker in the TC in 2019 but Sandown is much stiffer.


I'm also eyeing If the Cap Fits at in the Portman at Taunton. He was rampantly outpaced in the Feltham but stayed on like gang busters. This trip over fences could really suit. Not backing him until decs though.
 
wilsonl said:
I'd save your time Martin. The noises coming from Tellwright suggest no way is the meeting going ahead
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Yes what an earth was I thinking! I've been placing bets recently the night before and 70 percent of my Yankees are wiped out by the next day. It's costing me money and winners....
 
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