Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Fingers crossed. Trainer thinks he's back to his best after taking a long time to recover from the last 4m NHC. If he's right he must go very close today.
Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.
- Thread starter Marb
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Desert Orchid
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Won't winning the National on the back of that, even if he did run well. The race rather fell apart but even allowing VLR running to his career best you'd have to say neither LB nor KC will be winning the big one. Neither will VLR since he doesn't stay the trip.
Desert Orchid
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I'm indebted to a seldom [these days] seen forumite for highlighting one for the Welsh National and the reasoning is entirely sound.
We'll know more tomorrow but the chances are Secret Reprieve will go up 12lbs or thereabouts for his win at the weekend and I was too late for the 10/1 that was on offer. I've taken 7/1 this evening and I fully agree with my my co-forumite that this will go off around the 9/4 mark. I mentioned elsewhere that Native River probably will be taken out and Secret Reprieve will only have a 4lbs penalty so will be around 8lbs well in - that's 16 lengths in soft ground at the trip, which is a huge advantage - and will almost certainly make the cut.
I'm not given to over-excitement about ante-post bets because I know the pitfalls but, as I've mentioned before, once the betting public latches on to one that is officially lobbed in the price will collapse (eg Potterman 40-12/1 and Secret Investor 20/1-15/2 in the Ladbrokes Trophy) regardless of any other factors in play.
We'll know more tomorrow but the chances are Secret Reprieve will go up 12lbs or thereabouts for his win at the weekend and I was too late for the 10/1 that was on offer. I've taken 7/1 this evening and I fully agree with my my co-forumite that this will go off around the 9/4 mark. I mentioned elsewhere that Native River probably will be taken out and Secret Reprieve will only have a 4lbs penalty so will be around 8lbs well in - that's 16 lengths in soft ground at the trip, which is a huge advantage - and will almost certainly make the cut.
I'm not given to over-excitement about ante-post bets because I know the pitfalls but, as I've mentioned before, once the betting public latches on to one that is officially lobbed in the price will collapse (eg Potterman 40-12/1 and Secret Investor 20/1-15/2 in the Ladbrokes Trophy) regardless of any other factors in play.
Desert Orchid
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12lbs it is so the horse will be officially 8lbs well in and if they want to make absolutely sure they could always employ someone like Millie Wonnacott (7lbs) or Jack Tudor (3lbs) to lighten the burden even more. It's down to 5/1 in places but 7s still going here and there.
Desert Orchid
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Yes, the logic is the same and I'm tempted for that reason. The exchange price, though, has me wondering if he'll be going for it. The big difference is that Secret Reprieve is on a steep curve and likely to be better than his 12lbs rise suggests. 6/1 tops now and 7/2 with some of the kid-on outfits.
Desert Orchid
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I've also taken 16/1 Musical Slave for the Massey-Ferguson/Caspian Caviar this Saturday.
It's JP's only entry but I'm not sure how significant that might be considering his runners didn't get that close in the Mackeson. I backed this one last time at Newbury, though, and by halfway I was convinced I was on a total non-trier.
I'm not a fan of Johnson, something I've always openly declared, but he was godawful on this horse last time out. I couldn't help thinking he was deliberately putting the horse wrong at his fences yet he wasn't beaten at all far without being given too hard a race. The lasting impression I had was that Musical Slave is significantly better than he showed that day.
If he's just an iffy jumper the chances are they'll take him out so I'd have been on a loser anyway but if he gets into a rhythm just off the pace in order to show his real ability he can't possibly be far off winning.
It's JP's only entry but I'm not sure how significant that might be considering his runners didn't get that close in the Mackeson. I backed this one last time at Newbury, though, and by halfway I was convinced I was on a total non-trier.
I'm not a fan of Johnson, something I've always openly declared, but he was godawful on this horse last time out. I couldn't help thinking he was deliberately putting the horse wrong at his fences yet he wasn't beaten at all far without being given too hard a race. The lasting impression I had was that Musical Slave is significantly better than he showed that day.
If he's just an iffy jumper the chances are they'll take him out so I'd have been on a loser anyway but if he gets into a rhythm just off the pace in order to show his real ability he can't possibly be far off winning.
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I must admit that is off putting.
I wanted to get a look nice and early on the big handicap hurdle at Ascot next Saturday - fail to prepare, prepare to fail and so forth.
Loads of horses and form to get through, though at this stage the one sticking out at me is Alan King's Isolate.
To begin with I didn't think he'd make the cut off a mark of 128. However, I see Not So Sleepy won off a mark of 127 last season. There were just sixteen runners that day.
The maximum amount that can run next Saturday is 21, so it looks to me like Isolate could just sneak in?
He's totally unexposed over hurdles, having won his novice hurdles well. He could be the best handicapped horse in the race.
I'm going to wait until Monday to see the entries.
If I backed him on Monday evening anti-post at least I know so long as Alan King confirms him and/or if he is balloted out I'd get my money back.
I think he will sneak in there yet though.
If I can take 16's Monday evening I'll be happy.
Loads of horses and form to get through, though at this stage the one sticking out at me is Alan King's Isolate.
To begin with I didn't think he'd make the cut off a mark of 128. However, I see Not So Sleepy won off a mark of 127 last season. There were just sixteen runners that day.
The maximum amount that can run next Saturday is 21, so it looks to me like Isolate could just sneak in?
He's totally unexposed over hurdles, having won his novice hurdles well. He could be the best handicapped horse in the race.
I'm going to wait until Monday to see the entries.
If I backed him on Monday evening anti-post at least I know so long as Alan King confirms him and/or if he is balloted out I'd get my money back.
I think he will sneak in there yet though.
If I can take 16's Monday evening I'll be happy.
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Desert Orchid
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How do I go about getting a price about a horse winning any race at the festival?
Is it just a question of trawling through all the sites or is there a link (which I'm not seeing) via oddschecker?
Thanks in advance.
Is it just a question of trawling through all the sites or is there a link (which I'm not seeing) via oddschecker?
Thanks in advance.
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Diamond Geezer
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Entries at todays forfeit stage should be in soon...be interesting to see what will stand their ground.
William Hill give you the option to back 'any race' each way, whereas the others are win only.
Hi marb,I've took a chance with BALLINSKER.took 33s.ran well in 6th last time and the time before he was easily beaten by Milkwood but is 13lb better off.milkwood does look good on his unlucky run last time but it's only 8s so I'm going for a bit of value and even William's seems to be in form.
Good luck, Outsider.
I figure Isolate's price could contract during the week, I really like his profile. I'm waiting for some cash to clear into my debit card at present.
Plus not all the bookies have prices on the race. I'm tempted to back him on the nose to maximise potential returns, although each way is a safety net in the event he places on the day.
His best performance the last day was on soft ground, so forecast rain at Ascot isn't a major worry.
I figure Isolate's price could contract during the week, I really like his profile. I'm waiting for some cash to clear into my debit card at present.
Plus not all the bookies have prices on the race. I'm tempted to back him on the nose to maximise potential returns, although each way is a safety net in the event he places on the day.
His best performance the last day was on soft ground, so forecast rain at Ascot isn't a major worry.
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Aye I hope that's the case, Lee!
King could always take his other one out.
Looks like he already has.
I'm confusing you I think.
I thought edwardian,I think that's its name,was running but when I looked later he wasnt in the betting.so it looks like there is still 22.
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