I've sent you an email. If right we can tell the bastards on here when we bet it into EVS...
Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.
- Thread starter Marb
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I've sent you an email. If right we can tell the bastards on here when we bet it into EVS...
We both know average ratings mean little. Fwiw the highest rated horse today was Bacardy's on 153.
The best measure of the form is actually a useful measure, that of the third horse, Sixshooter, a 147 rated horse that they've pulled a dozen lengths clear of.
If you do not rate todays form, then do you also not rate the form of Sixshooters previous run, when he was 3L third behind Sire Du Berlais?
As strictly on the form Sams Profile has bettered Sire Du Berlais's form from several months ago by 9 lengths, which is not bad going is it?
I actually think both the first two horses have improved a lot on their official marks, but given the winner was coming back from a fractured rib and never took to fences, he's probably of more interest in the stayers than the second horse.
As I say, I'm a Ronald Pump fan. I'm sure Paisely Park is a worthy favourite too, but Sams Profile is a 155 + + + horse after today.
We'll see how long the 25's lasts.
Ps, expecting them to have run a fast time on heavy ground is also misguided.
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Desert Orchid
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The key to understanding form is to be able to identify which form is reliable and which isn't.
You might well be right, Marb, in which case I hope he wins for you but right now I'd be urging extreme caution.
Maxbet
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Why, extreme caution DO???....He's not putting his house on it, he's just adding to a portfolio!
It would certainly be a lot shorter if the ground came up desperate...
Diol Ker, who was well touted for the RSA by his trainer, before ever jumping a fence, fell first time out and reverts back to hurdles...slaughtered Monkfish in heavy ground.
The figures Marb refers too, do add up DO...What's more, there are others in the race that back it up!
His dosage would indicate stamina should be his forte too...
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That's right Max, I have nothing in my anti post portfolio at present I should add. I cashed out my Shan Blue RSA bet for obvious reasons.
I do try my best to 'know' as much as humanly possible in my own head, (before I consider a bet for Cheltenham anti post) , that there is some angle or edge that I think I might have.
In this case, my logic is straightforward. My overall summary of this year's stayers thus far, despite some big looking names and reputations at the head of the betting, is that the race is there for the taking for anything that is going to improve on the day. Sam's Profile sort of fits the profile, (excuse the pun).
His trainer said after the race the stayers is his target, (so that gives confidence he'll get there on the day), and I do feel there's every likelyhood that he's a live chance, which isn't properly represented by his odds of 25/1.
I'm obviously glass half full on the form whereas you're clearly glass half empty, Do.
I do try my best to 'know' as much as humanly possible in my own head, (before I consider a bet for Cheltenham anti post) , that there is some angle or edge that I think I might have.
In this case, my logic is straightforward. My overall summary of this year's stayers thus far, despite some big looking names and reputations at the head of the betting, is that the race is there for the taking for anything that is going to improve on the day. Sam's Profile sort of fits the profile, (excuse the pun).
His trainer said after the race the stayers is his target, (so that gives confidence he'll get there on the day), and I do feel there's every likelyhood that he's a live chance, which isn't properly represented by his odds of 25/1.
I'm obviously glass half full on the form whereas you're clearly glass half empty, Do.
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Desert Orchid
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That's fair enough, Maxbet. I just got the impression the more he talked about it the more he was talking himself into [what I would deem right now to be] a rash bet. To say he's a "155+++" horse suggest to me he's thinking in terms of it being a 170 horse (@ a notional 5lbs per +).
What he is is a fair horse who has shown he acts in very deep ground, the type Matt Chapman on TV a fair few times recently has advocated as the type of "slow old boat" you need to win these races (one of the stupidest things I've ever heard on TV, by the way, from a so-called professional pundit).
But fortune favours the brave and all that. I have a history of enthusiastically suggesting ante-post outsiders which turned out to be based on seriously flawed judgment. They are lessons that vary in terms of how expensive they've been but I find I'm make fewer of them these days so the money wasn't entirely unwisely spent :lol:
Yeah Luke, I obviously don't know Mouse Morris, but he also trained a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner in War Of Attrition. I'm guessing he may have had other good horses run there over the years?
This maybe irrelevant in terms of this year's stayers, but at least this shows that if he trains a horse that's good enough then he knows how to train them.
I notice Bacardys finished third in last years stayers and was comprehensively beaten today. A further boost for the form.
This maybe irrelevant in terms of this year's stayers, but at least this shows that if he trains a horse that's good enough then he knows how to train them.
I notice Bacardys finished third in last years stayers and was comprehensively beaten today. A further boost for the form.
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Maxbet
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I wouldn't be measuring anything against Bacardy's Marb....He never runs two races the same and you never know when he's going to pop up with his best performance...Having said that, if that was one of his better runs, hmmmm!
Yes I might be stretching my case there.
I'll be backing Sam Profile this Saturday morning, (hopefully there's still 25s about then). I'm waiting for some readies to clear into my account.
In relation to the other thread/race being discussed on this forum as I type, it's worth mentioning that there's an interesting grade 3 chase in Ireland on Sunday where several National Hunt Chase possibilities for the festival could take each other on.
FWIW, my top tracker for the national hunt season now, Notice To Close, is also entered in that race on Sunday, although he's entered in a lower class race over 2M4F on the same day too.
He might have a lot to find on ratings mind, especially in the grade three, but I did state if he was entered in a chase of 3M+ in the next few weeks, that I'd have a little speculative bet at 66s for the National Hunt Chase.
He could end up in something like the Kim Muir yet, once the handicap entries arrive, but we'll see if he runs on Sunday and in what race, etc. I'm looking forward to Sunday.
Anyhow, just remember I've told you well in advance Notice To Close is a good horse!
I'll be backing Sam Profile this Saturday morning, (hopefully there's still 25s about then). I'm waiting for some readies to clear into my account.
In relation to the other thread/race being discussed on this forum as I type, it's worth mentioning that there's an interesting grade 3 chase in Ireland on Sunday where several National Hunt Chase possibilities for the festival could take each other on.
FWIW, my top tracker for the national hunt season now, Notice To Close, is also entered in that race on Sunday, although he's entered in a lower class race over 2M4F on the same day too.
He might have a lot to find on ratings mind, especially in the grade three, but I did state if he was entered in a chase of 3M+ in the next few weeks, that I'd have a little speculative bet at 66s for the National Hunt Chase.
He could end up in something like the Kim Muir yet, once the handicap entries arrive, but we'll see if he runs on Sunday and in what race, etc. I'm looking forward to Sunday.
Anyhow, just remember I've told you well in advance Notice To Close is a good horse!
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Elliott has nominated the NH Chase for today’s Thyestes winner; Coko Beach.
It was only after the post race comments of Kennedy that I rewatched the race and boy did he travel and jump.
His mark was a good few lbs less than Galvin would have had to carry but it still takes some doing to be up with the pace from the off in a race of that nature and still be full of running coming to the last.
He’s only a 6 year old who was 2nd in a Boodles and then unlucky (badly hampered) not to place in the Coral Cup.
I’ve just taken the 14/1 win only, NRNB (hopefully Royale Pagaille goes elsewhere) because no way on earth is he that price if/when he runs.
The majority of horses above him won’t run
It was only after the post race comments of Kennedy that I rewatched the race and boy did he travel and jump.
His mark was a good few lbs less than Galvin would have had to carry but it still takes some doing to be up with the pace from the off in a race of that nature and still be full of running coming to the last.
He’s only a 6 year old who was 2nd in a Boodles and then unlucky (badly hampered) not to place in the Coral Cup.
I’ve just taken the 14/1 win only, NRNB (hopefully Royale Pagaille goes elsewhere) because no way on earth is he that price if/when he runs.
The majority of horses above him won’t run
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Maxbet
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In his very next race after winning the Galmoy no less!!!
Notice To Close has been declared for the 2M4F handicap chase on Sunday. A more winnable race than the grade three. See how he goes. Maybe a handicap chase at the festival is possible/plausible if he wins on Sunday.
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Desert Orchid
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That was a really sore one, I have to admit.
I do think, though, that CDN was the best horse in the race. Unfortunately his jumping wasn't fluent enough in this class of race. He must have lost half a length (and momentum) and half the fences. He'll struggle in the near future off 3lbs higher but at least he went some way to franking Royale Pagaille.
I'm keeping an eye out for where David Pipe declares Eden Du Houx. He was supposed to run at the now abandoned Cheltenham last Saturday.
He's now been entered at Sandown this Saturday in a decent handicap chase, while he's also entered this Thursday in a lesser value handicap chase.
If he's not declared tomorrow for Thursday, I'll be looking to back him for Sandown this Saturday. He didn't run too badly the last day so could be a big improver after wind surgery at a fair price.
He's now been entered at Sandown this Saturday in a decent handicap chase, while he's also entered this Thursday in a lesser value handicap chase.
If he's not declared tomorrow for Thursday, I'll be looking to back him for Sandown this Saturday. He didn't run too badly the last day so could be a big improver after wind surgery at a fair price.
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Desert Orchid
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Yes, he was on my radar at the weekend too and would almost certainly have carried a saver.
Admin, I can't seem to view the 'what are you backing today thread'. Is anyone else having the same problem?
I'm hoping for at least 8/1 or thereabouts tonight on this David Pipe horse, Eden Du Houx tomorrow, (Win 2.10). He's nicely handicapped to win a race, and new headgear can do the trick.
I'm hoping for at least 8/1 or thereabouts tonight on this David Pipe horse, Eden Du Houx tomorrow, (Win 2.10). He's nicely handicapped to win a race, and new headgear can do the trick.
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Beef or Salmon
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Same problem here, noticed it last night, I assume the thread is too big and needs to be closed and a new one opened.
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PlaceBacker
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ditto
Desert Orchid
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I've taken 10/1 Dame De Compagnie for the Mares' Chase.
She was impressive in the Coral Cup, looking better than a handicapper over hurdles and she scalped a decent horse in Cornerstone Lad at Ayr on her debut over fences. I'm not sure what it amounts to but if she makes the 10lbs progress from hurdles to novice chasing, she is entirely capable of shaking up any of the favourites for the Mares' Chase.
I'm hoping Saturday's race at Sandown will pay for the bet :lol:
She was impressive in the Coral Cup, looking better than a handicapper over hurdles and she scalped a decent horse in Cornerstone Lad at Ayr on her debut over fences. I'm not sure what it amounts to but if she makes the 10lbs progress from hurdles to novice chasing, she is entirely capable of shaking up any of the favourites for the Mares' Chase.
I'm hoping Saturday's race at Sandown will pay for the bet :lol:
Elimay is my biggest bet of the festival so far at average 9/1 so not sure what to make of Dame chasing now. A line through Black Tears gives Elimay the upperhand but that's confirmation bias of the highest order on my part.
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Guys and girls. I'm looking at placing an anti post bet in the next day or two. I need advice.
I am looking to place a Lucky 15 each way, the first race is the Betfair this Saturday, the next three races at the Cheltenham Festival.
One horse I'll be sticking in is Sam's Profile in the Stayers Hurdle. The trainer says if he's well he'll take his chance.
The last two horses I'm looking at backing in this each way lucky 15, - (yes I know these races have red hot favorites, but anyway), I just wanted opinions on Sporting John running in the RSA Chase, and Chatham Street Lad running in the Marsh. Both these horses I like. I think at the odds present, I'd be betting them to run in the races above.
What do you think? Should I wait until NRNB?
I am looking to place a Lucky 15 each way, the first race is the Betfair this Saturday, the next three races at the Cheltenham Festival.
One horse I'll be sticking in is Sam's Profile in the Stayers Hurdle. The trainer says if he's well he'll take his chance.
The last two horses I'm looking at backing in this each way lucky 15, - (yes I know these races have red hot favorites, but anyway), I just wanted opinions on Sporting John running in the RSA Chase, and Chatham Street Lad running in the Marsh. Both these horses I like. I think at the odds present, I'd be betting them to run in the races above.
What do you think? Should I wait until NRNB?
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