Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Euronymous said:
Had an ew double on Sea of Class/Hazapour for the Oaks/Derby. I have double figures about Lah ti Dar for the fillies race so the Haggas filly is in as protection (looks the only realistic danger) and Hazapour is just overpriced at 16s in a juicy ew market.
Click to expand...


Difference between an average flat season and a good one is this type of ****. Has there ever been a luckier classic winner than Forever Together.
 
Marble said:
YORK EBOR HANDICAP - This is another prestigious handicap race which I've had a provisional look through. I'll just cut to the chase and put forward the horse I believe can get there to run well on the day. TEODORO looks to still be improving: He's trained by Tom Dascombe, has slowly worked his way up the handicapping ranks, and ran creditably in fourth place when 3/1 favourite at Haydock the last day. This was his first real attempt at top handicap level so it was no disgrace to finish fourth. His overall profile shows he can win at different distances and can win from varying race positions too, when being held up or alternatively racing prominently. These attributes put him in good shape for a crack at The Ebor. He didn't have the turn of foot in the closing stages, (over 1M4F), but my feeling is that he'll improve for a stronger pace and the step up to 1M6F.

So there you have it - The York Ebor winner in three weeks, currently available at a pony 25/1!

I'll be having a few coins on in the next week or so.
Click to expand...

Come on Teo!
 
Ran like a non-stayer after all but maybe bounced.

I have to say, Muntahaa was never on my radar for this. Gosden is an absolute genius.
 
That's another big handicap winner showing fundamental improvement after being gelded. The Melrose winner earlier was the same. I'm actually tempted to go through the entire Portland Handicap, Ayr Gold Cup, Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch fields in a minute to look for horses that have been gelded at some point during their racing career, (and possibly changed trainer), then create a shortlist from those.
 
Last edited:
Ripp Orf, Big Country, Tanasoq, Settleforbay, Bacchus, Waarif, Withhold, Rainbow Rebel, Burnt Sugar, Euchen Glen, Gifted Master, Gunmetal, Mikmak, Flaming Spear, Ghostwatch and Muntaahaa today. (All winners of valuable 3yo+ handicaps after being gelded).
 
Last edited:
I feel a bit sorry for horses who haven't been gelded, including fillies. You have got no chance in big handicaps by the looks of it.
 
Last edited:
I'd say 95% of handicap runners and winners will be geldings by virtue of not being good enough to run in group 1/2 races therefore not being valuable enough to stand at stud.
 
Marble said:
Ripp Orf, Big Country, Tanasoq, Settleforbay, Bacchus, Waarif, Withhold, Rainbow Rebel, Burnt Sugar, Euchen Glen, Gifted Master, Gunmetal, Mikmak, Flaming Spear, Ghostwatch and Muntaahaa today. (All winners of valuable 3yo+ handicaps after being gelded).
Click to expand...

On their first outing after being gelded?

Remember there are lies, damned lies and statistics :)
 
fonz said:
I'd say 95% of handicap runners and winners will be geldings by virtue of not being good enough to run in group 1/2 races therefore not being valuable enough to stand at stud.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure the percentage would be as high as 95 percent.

I recently looked at a sample, which looked at the races of the winners I mentioned earlier.

From my sample, about 70 percent of runners were geldings, but they won something like 90+ percent of the races in question.

Some started their careers off as geldings, in which case there's not much to gauge. Others, (Withhold, Ghostwatch, Burnt Sugar, etc) are definitely interesting to look at, having improved beyond all recognition after the operation. Also, Ghostwatch was one of about 6 geldings contesting the 16 runner Melrose yesterday, he was definately in a minority: Whereas The Ebor was dominated by geldings, in terms of sheer numbers. The Melrose being a 3 year old handicap for younger horses, probably explains some of this, and relates to your stud theory.

The right horse/specimen it seems, after being gelded, can improve their ability, beyond what any form study can reveal, (certainly more than most punters might give this credit for.)

Obviously backing geldings blindly isn't a cast-iron way to making money, but you could say, that it's interesting to note, how many winners found their 'true potential' not long after being gelded, (and in a fair amount of cases), simultaneously changing trainers.

It's more of an observation, than a statistical analysis, but in many instances it does explain where the improvement has come from.

I personally couldn't back a filly or colt in a top handicap in England at present with any real confidence, unless it was a filly-only handicap like The Sandringham at Royal Ascot, or I thought the colt was extremely fast.

Crack On Crack On was about the only colt I could find, (there may be one or two others), to win a decent handicap this year.

John Gosden's Anna Nerium was one filly who won the European Handicap at Newmarket against the boys at start of the season, which I reckon takes some doing.

There may be more, but I'm referring to the big showcase handicaps, (or whatever else) they're called these days...
 
Last edited:
Marble said:
John Gosden's Anna Nerium was one filly who won the European Handicap at Newmarket against the boys at start of the season, which I reckon takes some doing.
Click to expand...

Only now seen she's now trained by Richard Hannon, after checking the 4:10 at Goodwood. :)
 
Last edited:
I might have an early bet on Martyn Meade's Infrastructure for the handicap at Sandown on Saturday. He was gelded so never ran at two years of age, but looks interesting with some big handicap entries at three years of age. He won a decent pot two starts ago. Priced at 10/1 for Saturday, bigger prices for The Cambridgeshire. Definately on a exploitable rating.
 
Last edited:
Lady Frankel 12/1 for the l'Opera on Arc day. Suffered an horrendous passage in the Jean Romanet and is way overpriced for a race that would have been top of her agenda all year.
 
Marble said:
I might have an early bet on Martyn Meade's Infrastructure for the handicap at Sandown on Saturday. He was gelded so never ran at two years of age, but looks interesting with some big handicap entries at three years of age. He won a decent pot two starts ago. Priced at 10/1 for Saturday, bigger prices for The Cambridgeshire. Definately on a exploitable rating.
Click to expand...

Taken out today. Thankfully I held fire so nothing lost.
 
Last edited:
The "Foxy Bingo Fur Ever Friends Handicap" at Chester on Saturday looks an interesting betting heat.

Mark's Johnston's pair head the market. Lake Volta ran well the last day. Poets Society won at 20/1 at York.
I guess the question is: How reliable are those two horses? Both in terms of maintaining that high level of form that they showed last time and carrying their respective weights. I'm prepared to take them both on, with AL ERAYG, at 16/1 with Boylesports. This former Qatar-owned horse, scored on his first career start in 2016 over at Maisons Laffitte, when beating the formerly trained Andre Fabre horse Repercussion (rated 101). Al Erayg was then beaten a shortish odds a couple of times in 2017 in France, before leaving F-H Graffards yard for Tim Easterby's (after being gelded). This is his first start for Tim Easterby. He's been off the track for 390 days, but showed he can win first time out in France, and is on an exploitable mark (93). I'll be having more on in terms of stake than I usually would. The horse at the very bottom, Documenting, is probably overpriced. He may run into a place, but Al Erayg, (with the low draw), looks much more appealing.

In Marb we trust :)
 
Last edited:
I've had a bet in that myself. Oh This is Us ran a stormer behind Plumatic in the Sovereign and I always like top weights at Chester so thought he was worth chancing at 9s.
 
Cheers. Another one, The Tin Man is still trading at 10s in a place for the Sprint Cup despite being confirmed as on course for the race today. That's too big given his liking for the race and the doubts about the fav after his stalls incident at Ascot.
 
Marble said:
The "Foxy Bingo Fur Ever Friends Handicap" at Chester on Saturday looks an interesting betting heat.

Mark's Johnston's pair head the market. Lake Volta ran well the last day. Poets Society won at 20/1 at York.
I guess the question is: How reliable are those two horses? Both in terms of maintaining that high level of form that they showed last time and carrying their respective weights. I'm prepared to take them both on, with AL ERAYG, at 16/1 with Boylesports. This former Qatar-owned horse, scored on his first career start in 2016 over at Maisons Laffitte, when beating the formerly trained Andre Fabre horse Repercussion (rated 101). Al Erayg was then beaten a shortish odds a couple of times in 2017 in France, before leaving F-H Graffards yard for Tim Easterby's (after being gelded). This is his first start for Tim Easterby. He's been off the track for 390 days, but showed he can win first time out in France, and is on an exploitable mark (93). I'll be having more on in terms of stake than I usually would. The horse at the very bottom, Documenting, is probably overpriced. He may run into a place, but Al Erayg, (with the low draw), looks much more appealing.

In Marb we trust :)
Click to expand...

Documenting has shortened a bit.

I think an e/w bet on Tim Easterby's horse, with a saver on Documenting, is the way to play this.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top