Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

I've just had a look at the Ebor ante-post market.

There are 42 horses listed before you get to a 33/1 shot and the favourite is generally 5/1. It might end up twice that price on the day.

Waste of time.
 
I hear what your saying about often there being no advantage to backing anti-post as opposed to on the day, DO. However, in this particular instance, I'd argue Teodoro will go off a single figure price, or thereabouts, as his profile is very strong and it doesn't take a form book expert to know that's he'd have a live chance. I'd also argue, that with this being the creme de la creme of staying handicaps in the North, the entries at this stage have so many quality horses in, that it essentially creates value on a few of them.
 
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That said, I'm in no great hurry to back Teodoro, but will do at some juncture. I like to get my posts down on here if I fancy one, and am quite liberal in this way. I'm sure in the same situation a few would wait til five days before the race, but there you go. Each to their own.
 
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I had a quick look at Teodoro. To be honest, I'm not sure he'll even run. I don't see any room for encouragement in his pedigree that a step up in trip will suit. He's already been beaten - and not necessarily improving - off his Ebor mark of 101. If you believe he wasn't trying last time, which is unlikely given the trainer and jockey's record at the track, then a case could maybe be made but I suspect last time out was his target for the first half of the season and they'll be trying to get his mark back down ahead of an assault on a decent pot later on, probably back at Haydock.
 
Ive had my fingers burnt a few times but 33/1 gifted master made up for it.
As i had a good day yesterday ive just done one the Ebor after he finished last yesterday and has an OR of 103 and is trained by Easterby.
MY REWARD 40/1.a bit of rain wouldnt hurt.ran a cracking race at york last year over 2m and only got beat by Magic Ciircle(gave 2lb)
Magic circle is now rated 117.
I expect my reward will try and lead all the way thats if he can get the lead off a johnson horse.
I havent gone mad,i never do.i know more than anyone the dangers of a/p betting.
I sometimes wonder if its worthwhile as you only get 4 places whereas on the day it will be 6 or 7 places like the stewards cup was yesterday.
So i await your thoughts Marble.and Do.
 
The place betting is a valid point regarding a/p betting, outsider.

These were my ratings and thoughts ahead of Saturday's race:


GWD 2.25 QATAR SUMMER HANDICAP (Class 2) (3yo+) Winner £62,250 14 runners 1m6f Good ITV(STALLS Inside)
[TABLE="width: 1001"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Draw
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Stats
[/TD]
[TD]Days
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]TS
[/TD]
[TD]MON
(122+)
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD]935-49
[/TD]
[TD] Hochfeld
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]9-6
[/TD]
[TD]Mark Johnston
[/TD]
[TD]Martin Harley
[/TD]
[TD]102
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD]111394
[/TD]
[TD] Watersmeet
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 35
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]9-1
[/TD]
[TD]Mark Johnston
[/TD]
[TD]Joe Fanning
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]83
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD]AN
[/TD]
[TD]111
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD]/48-00
[/TD]
[TD] Arch Villain
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]9-1
[/TD]
[TD]Amanda Perrett
[/TD]
[TD]Yuga Kawada
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD]866870
[/TD]
[TD] Soldier In Action
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD] 35
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]9-1
[/TD]
[TD]Mark Johnston
[/TD]
[TD]Silvestre De Sousa
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD](127)
(131A)
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD]254464
[/TD]
[TD] Time To Study
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]9-10
[/TD]
[TD]Mark Johnston
[/TD]
[TD]Gerald Mosse
[/TD]
[TD]106
[/TD]
[TD]90
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD]051285
[/TD]
[TD] Sofia's Rock
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]9-3
[/TD]
[TD]Mark Johnston
[/TD]
[TD]David Probert
[/TD]
[TD]99
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD](124)
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD]842307
[/TD]
[TD] Sir Chauvelin
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]9-2
[/TD]
[TD]Jim Goldie
[/TD]
[TD]Robert Winston
[/TD]
[TD]98
[/TD]
[TD]105
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD]14-288
[/TD]
[TD] On To Victory
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 35
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]9-8
[/TD]
[TD]Eve Johnson Houghton
[/TD]
[TD]Charles Bishop
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]? p?
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD]655-12
[/TD]
[TD] Platitude
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD] 28
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]9-8
[/TD]
[TD]Amanda Perrett
[/TD]
[TD]Adam Kirby
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]81
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]? +p
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD]4-6213
[/TD]
[TD] Walton Street
[/TD]
[TD]p C
[/TD]
[TD] 43
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]9-8
[/TD]
[TD]Charlie Appleby
[/TD]
[TD]William Buick
[/TD]
[TD]104
[/TD]
[TD]92
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD]-30105
[/TD]
[TD] My Reward
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]9-7
[/TD]
[TD]Tim Easterby
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Hanagan
[/TD]
[TD]103
[/TD]
[TD]87
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]? p?
[/TD]
[TD]113
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]7-4621
[/TD]
[TD] Pacify
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD] 22
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]9-4
[/TD]
[TD]Ralph Beckett
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Bentley
[/TD]
[TD]100
[/TD]
[TD]95
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]-52801
[/TD]
[TD] Nabunga
[/TD]
[TD]t 1
[/TD]
[TD] 32
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]9-0
[/TD]
[TD]Gianluca Bietolini
[/TD]
[TD]Stephane Pasquier
[/TD]
[TD]96
[/TD]
[TD]87
[/TD]
[TD]117
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]112
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD]20-411
[/TD]
[TD] Melting Dew
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD] 29
[/TD]
[TD]4
[/TD]
[TD]9-1
[/TD]
[TD]Sir Michael Stoute
[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Moore
[/TD]
[TD]97
[/TD]
[TD]107
[/TD]
[TD]116
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is further testament to the handicapping skills of Mark Johnston. His five entries occupy five of the top six ratings on my figures and any of them could beat the race norm. He reminds me of Jenny Pitman in that respect. She would run certain horses every other week yet when they took in a big ‘un they won as often as not. I’m sure I read some years ago that Johnston gave regular feed to his horses most of the time but gave them ‘premium’ nosh in the days running up to a big race. I’m not sure that’s the case any more. He just seems to run them rather than train them, in such a way that they run well without going up the weights yet he’s able to sharpen them up for when it matters. Then again, maybe I’m just being too saintly towards him…

This is actually a proper race. In addition to the Johnston mob, we’ve got Sir Chauvelin who’s been running well in big races, being perhaps unlucky more than once. He might need a penalty to get into the Ebor. We’ve also got a GIAH in Walton Street for whom nothing went right at Ascot. Other possible big improvers are Platitude and Melting Dew while Arch Villain was fourth in the Ebor first time up last season off 7lbs higher and might need a penalty to get in this time.

Most of this field already can beat, or have strong prospects of beating, the norm so if they all run to form something could hit the norm and not finish in the first six. I’m going to give Soldier In Action another go as the main saver since his very best form should be more than good enough. Walton Street will be the main bet but note that if he wins this his penalty will make life difficult in the Ebor; however, Godolphin might have something they fancy more. They have eight other entries with good prospects of making the cut. Arch Villain will carry some sickness insurance at big odds.

You'll see My Reward was some way down the table but there's a possibility he might still be on a general upward curve. On balance, he probably doesn't have the winning of an Ebor off this mark as the norm for that is higher than the norm for the above race but you never know with Easterby!!

When Walton Street was withdrawn I tried to get a half-point on Sir Chauvelin as he was very much on my radar being a '+p' runner but they were off before I could get the oddschecker page up.
 
Desert Orchid said:
On balance, he probably doesn't have the winning of an Ebor off this mark as the norm for that is higher than the norm for the above race but you never know with Easterby!!
Click to expand...

Agree with the prognosis. While he's proven himself in class 2's he's no right to win an Ebor on form.
 
I've just seen C'Est No Mour who was third behind Teodoro two starts ago, is entered at Kempton on Wednesday night.

A bit like Teodoro the last day in The Newton Cup, C'Est No Mour has shown he's a quite a decent horse but has repeatedly failed to have the finishing speed at 1M4/1M6F, but this doesn't necessarily mean he needs stepping down in trip, it means he might need further against, possibly against lesser opposition. so the switch/step up to 2 miles at class four level is very interesting. I'm working under the assumption C'Est No Mour can run on Tapeta. I might be looking to back this come Wednesday night...doubt it'll be 12/1 early price that Sporting Life have him at.
 
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Nice piece that DO.

Surely a rating of 103,2lb above tesoro and 3lb above cosmelli entitles him to be up to it.

I know my thinking is not the norm,but if tim easterby had the ebor on the agenda then his runs will be geared up to and results up to it are just to protect his mark.

Plenty of time to change my mind.i just thought 40/1 was huge.my life is full of dreams.
 
Thanks, Outsider. I think when it comes to the bigger races our thinking isn't that far apart (hence Sir Chauvelin, Cosmelli, Dougan, etc).

I don't go by handicap marks per se, ie a rating of 103 means it can win. In these big races it's a question of what should his mark be compared to what it is. If I rate a horse 103 and its OR is 103 then for me it simply cannot win a big handicap. For me, if its OR is 103 I'd need to be rating it at least 115, or at least with the potential to hit 115, before I'd even consider it.

In the above example my (MON) ratings are adjusted to 10-0 so my own rating for Sir Chauvelin was 108+p compared to his OR of 98.
 
You deserve to get winners for the amount of work you put in.
Im just idle.i look at form sometimes but not very often.
If i see a horse catches my eye through not getting a clear run,hampered runs on,travels strongly then i upgrade the run and in my opinion(and its the one that matters,as its my money)if it can run well once it can do it again.i might have to wait but im patient.
Cosmelli was a good example.he caught my eye in last years plate where he finished 8th 100/1 but was only btn 3l.
Im sure the plan after that was to get its weight down 3 or 4 lb which she did to perfection only then to find it didnt get in.
I would have loved to know what gaye kellaway was thinking.i bet she was fuming.lol
Anyway the rest is history.
So that race over two mile that my reward was 2nd to magic city is my yard stick. Showed it acted around york and seems to handle any distance between 12 and 16 furlongs.seems to act on any going.
We do seem to think along the same lines and its good to discuss but i do get confused eas
Incidently,i almost did arch villain on sat,but chose my reward instead.

And i will say it again,i still dont know why i didnt back sir chauveliin,after all ive said about him.one of lifelong mysteries.
He even helped me win thhe ascot comp
 
Euronymous said:
I'm a bit like that. Like, for handicaps **** looking at all the runners. If I like one I'm punting it.
Click to expand...

So long as it works for you it's entirely valid. My brother is a like that too and does quite well. He never studies form for any race but seems to have a good memory for what he's seen and read. He'll phone me up and tell me he's backed x because he remembered it had run well in some race and thought the jockey got it beat/it wasn't trying/was unlucky etc etc.
 
Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap. FIRE JET fits the profile of a very good staying handicapper. Trained by John Mackie, I think a couple of his runs this season were very good, and he hinted at a return to form last time. He is on a workable mark. I'm looking forward to seeing him over 2 miles at Ascot, and the current 16/1 should shorten up depending on him being declared tomorrow.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I had a quick look at Teodoro. To be honest, I'm not sure he'll even run. I don't see any room for encouragement in his pedigree that a step up in trip will suit. He's already been beaten - and not necessarily improving - off his Ebor mark of 101. If you believe he wasn't trying last time, which is unlikely given the trainer and jockey's record at the track, then a case could maybe be made but I suspect last time out was his target for the first half of the season and they'll be trying to get his mark back down ahead of an assault on a decent pot later on, probably back at Haydock.
Click to expand...
Declared for the Rose Of Lancaster on Saturday at Haydock over 1M2F.
 
Marble said:
Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap. FIRE JET fits the profile of a very good staying handicapper. Trained by John Mackie, I think a couple of his runs this season were very good, and he hinted at a return to form last time. He is on a workable mark. I'm looking forward to seeing him over 2 miles at Ascot, and the current 16/1 should shorten up depending on him being declared tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Declared. Big chance.
 
Marble said:
Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap. FIRE JET fits the profile of a very good staying handicapper. Trained by John Mackie, I think a couple of his runs this season were very good, and he hinted at a return to form last time. He is on a workable mark. I'm looking forward to seeing him over 2 miles at Ascot, and the current 16/1 should shorten up depending on him being declared tomorrow.
Click to expand...

Declared. Big chance.
 
I always find the Shergar Cup to be fairly pointless - I'd rather they just had a normal days racing. Just my opinion obviously.


That said - a winners a winner, so good luck Marble!
 
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I'll be giving the Shergar Cup a complete miss unless a tracker alert for something comes through, in which case I'll check out the horse/race.

The whole event is just a PR stunt.

The rhyming slang works too.

I might give Saturday a complete miss as there are no serious races elsewhere. The lull between Goodwood and York.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'll be giving the Shergar Cup a complete miss unless a tracker alert for something comes through, in which case I'll check out the horse/race.

The whole event is just a PR stunt.
Click to expand...

I'm the same, unfortunately three of mine:
Bless Him
George of Hearts
Tis Marvellous

are all declared. And the latter I have on my notes as "only really being of interest at Ascot" - I didn't back him last week.
 
I dont blame you fellas. I will be out all day on Saturday doing some voluntary work helping a local charity. I'll check the results Saturday evening just to see if Fire Jet can do something different to most of my recent selections lol.
 
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I meant to mention last night that I was going through some form and came across Teodoro's Haydock run. I can't help being suspicious when something that normally runs straight ends up 'hanging'.

In the dim and distant penumbral recesses of my mind, I vaguely recall putting together what I'd seen and studied and concluded that it's a sign that the horse is being pulled off balance deliberately so I now wonder if Haydock really was the target for Teodoro. That's the day I backed it and it was very heavily punted in from the 13/2 I took in the morning to 3/1f. So it really should be on my radar for something decent but the Ebor takes some winning!
 
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