Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Marb said:
Not ante post anymore, but anyway.

I'm torn between three horses for the Sprint on Saturday. Can anyone help me out, what would you back of the three if the gun was at your head, and why. Saying to me don't have a bet is not allowed, that's a fannies way out.

El Bodon. Placed form in a group race and had the all important gelding operation, which appeals to me. No real form of soft ground though, if that's how it comes up.

Quest For fun. A horse I've believed wants 6 furlongs for a while. He gets it here, and his soft or heavy ground, but he does he have enough class? Would he be better over the same conditions, but in a class 3 or 4 now.

Secret Guest. This has improved lately, especially since the win operation. He has an each way chance for sure, although at the moment is third choice of the three for me.

Any help appreciated.
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Can't say as I've looked all through it or have a fancy of my own but had a quick look for you Marb all the pace is centre to high so think the high draw is favourable. Quest for Fun has a high draw is a big price and has already placed twice at York off higher marks at 7f. Looking at how those went a more forceful ride over the 6f here off a lower mark if drawn in the right place which I think he is should see him go close again out of your 3 marb gun to my head that's the one I'd be on but my mrs has me well insured so its win win.
 
Danny said:
Can't say as I've looked all through it or have a fancy of my own but had a quick look for you Marb all the pace is centre to high so think the high draw is favourable. Quest for Fun has a high draw is a big price and has already placed twice at York off higher marks at 7f. Looking at how those went a more forceful ride over the 6f here off a lower mark if drawn in the right place which I think he is should see him go close again out of your 3 marb gun to my head that's the one I'd be on but my mrs has me well insured so its win win.
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Cheers Danny.

I've obviously got a long shortlist. Even Archduke Ferdinand is interesting now stepped up in class and bang in form. Then there's Orazio, but no one can be sure what Orazio will turn up.

I'll stick with Quest For Fun as a token pick in the yankee. He like the ground and 6F is what he needs. A class two is a big ask, but what the hell, eh.
 
Best of luck Marb if you look at how Easterby's have run today at york Marb he couldnt have his string in better order.
 
Balmoral handicap. Oct19th.

Ouzo 50/1 too big imo.
Bopedro 25/1. Bet365 also too big.

They will do for me.
 
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I reckon JP has one of the best prospects he had in years and will be one to follow this coming season.

He oozes class and once we know what his Cheltenham target is he should be backed without hesitation

Majborough who might go Arkle despite his young age​

 
Tanlic said:
I reckon JP has one of the best prospects he had in years and will be one to follow this coming season.

He oozes class and once we know what his Cheltenham target is he should be backed without hesitation

Majborough who might go Arkle despite his young age​

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Interestingly Majborough is slightly shorter for the Brown Advisory. That’s even more of an ask for a young horse but he’s some unit and may well cope. I’m sure Willie will run him in the right race but it’s likely he’ll go where Ballyburn doesn’t IMO
 
Theatre Man 2m4 handicap chase on Saturday, 8s at Denise. Also in a graded race over 3m later in the card but he's never run in that company nor over that trip before.
 
I'm quite interested in Thunder Rock's entry in the 365 Hurdle on Saturday. He's not been over the smaller obstacles for a while, and is rated 7lb lower there, but he's 4/6 in that sphere, and this goes back to his novice hurdling days before he went over fences.

He's clearly shown talent over fences, and like many horses, he would have been pushed into that at the time, probably regardless of what he could have achieved over hurdles, but the Charlie Hall Chase on Saturday is a big ask. I feel there's a good chance they'll declare this fella for the graded hurdle at Wetherby instead and he'll go and win too. I'm not involved ante post, but I'd make him one of my best bets come Saturday if they stick him back over hurdles. See the final declarations tomorrow.
 
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Couple I like at Ascot on Saturday. Cianti Classico is a bad fav for the Sodexo, he's not as good a horse going right handed and so I've taken a chance on Victtorino who loves the course and distance, though obv don't know where Venetia's will be this time of year.

In the Byrne Group kind of not happy to see Entain top price about Saint Segal earlier in the week as I can't bet with the firm I work for and he's a tad short for my liking now even though his credentials like Victtorino are very solid over this particular course and distance and I like that he's had a run already this season. I've put him in a double with No Risk des Flos who is overpriced at Stratford tomorrow because of the Skelton thing who's a ridiculous price honestly.
 
Marb said:
I'm quite interested in Thunder Rock's entry in the 365 Hurdle on Saturday. He's not been over the smaller obstacles for a while, and is rated 7lb lower there, but he's 4/6 in that sphere, and this goes back to his novice hurdling days before he went over fences.

He's clearly shown talent over fences, and like many horses, he would have been pushed into that at the time, probably regardless of what he could have achieved over hurdles, but the Charlie Hall Chase on Saturday is a big ask. I feel there's a good chance they'll declare this fella for the graded hurdle at Wetherby instead and he'll go and win too. I'm not involved ante post, but I'd make him one of my best bets come Saturday if they stick him back over hurdles. See the final declarations tomorrow.
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He's in the final field, and his trainer has pulled out the ante post favourite, Strong Leader.

Lump on.

That said, Denise is being a bit stingy only going 9/2.
 
Euronymous said:
Couple I like at Ascot on Saturday. Cianti Classico is a bad fav for the Sodexo, he's not as good a horse going right handed and so I've taken a chance on Victtorino who loves the course and distance, though obv don't know where Venetia's will be this time of year.
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Of course it's the ideal race for him but that dumb bitch couldn't be arsed getting him ready. So why enter him.
 
I like that Kateira is going for the Grade 2 hurdle at Wetherby on Saturday instead of what looked an easier opportunity in the mares race

Will play her each way, currently 13-2
 
Can I ask why? He's very exposed.

I like Imagine via his form with Pinkerton and the JP horse with the stupid name and Colonel Harry who went in my tracker today. Obv hated going right handed and should be much better at Cheltenham.
 
Euronymous said:
Can I ask why? He's very exposed.
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But is he?

Either way, for me and presumably for Outsider, it's purely down to his current mark (138) off which he won a £100k PP race at the track the season before last and was short-headed off 143 by Fugitif in a £150k hcap here last season for which he went up to 148 and was third, again here, to Ga Law in a £100k PP hcap. I think at that point Nicholls accepted that mark was beyond him and his campaign since then has been to get him competitively handicapped, which he has absolutely achieved.

He's maybe exposed as not being able to win off 148 but 138 is a different matter.

With two weeks to go he only needs six to come out to get a run and that will almost certainly happen. They maybe need the likes of Protektorat (top weight 167 at the moment) to come out to raise the weights enough to prevent him from running from out of the weights but I'm sure Nicholls will have some good claimer on standby. It will then depend on whether Nicholls runs Stage Star (163, second top). If he does the IR would be on 10-1 so only a pound 'wrong'. The next top is Ga Law (155) but the Irish horses haven't been listed with ratings as yet so that's unlikely to remain the case with the weights out tomorrow (?)

I reckon once the pundits look at the race they'll be giving IR a strong mention and the odds will halve. This new handicap mark is very generous.
 
I backed IR a few weeks ago on the strength of his generous mark. IIRC the fat controller said he hadn’t been tuned up and that run would put him spot on for the PP. He’s had plenty of runs but I’d agree he’s not exposed off 138
 
I might have 1/6d or 2 Shillings on Imagine if he runs in the PP but I find it hard to trust any horse anywhere in the AP market for real money..
.except , boringly 7/4 Constitution Hill who I have. Backed very discretely in Thailand Scotland and Australia I got the life of me can't understand why anyone thinks he won't turn up...he had a virus has fully recovered and looks stronger than ever according to a very well informed source that I trust. As long as he remains odds against I will continue backing him....when he hacks up in his first race I expect he will be 4/7 at best

.
 
November Hcap - Flash Bardot 14/1 - career best last time, only 3lbs higher. I suspect they were looking for the win last time but came up against one. Will now make the cut. Hit good form late last season in soft ground.
 
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