Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

[Desert Orchid]

Asc Oct 5th, Challenge Cup - I've taken the 10/1 on offer about Lethal Levi after his big win today. I reckon he'll go up at least 10lbs and will have only a 6lbs penalty. Only one bookie (Hills) is pricing the race up, presumably having taken the betting down to reappraise it following today's race, but 6lbs wouldn't have made any difference to LL today and it looks to me like he's suddenly started to improve a lot.

I actually went into his details to see if he was entered for the champions' sprint race since he looked better than a handicapper today but they'd need to supplement him for that.

Surprisingly, LL has only been raised 9lbs. Had he won a neck he'd have been raised at least 3lbs (as a winner of a big race) but he won by three lengths, going away, if anything.

Maybe the handicapper reckoned taking him up to 111 would put him beyond handicaps anyway and saw no point in clobbering him further. He's a 115+ horse in my book and looked better than ever the other day.

 

[Danny]

I reckon Mr King is a player you know.

A gradual improver for Ger Lyons in Ireland. He finished off racing over there when giving a horse called Barbapapa 4lbs and a length and a half beating. That horse is no mug in his own right, having recently ran well at big odds in a class two at Newcastle. Mr King's had three runs for Iain Jardine over here, with the last run being at Ayr, when a very eye catching third, especially given he was too keen. Only a couple of necks behind Aragon Castle that day. He could be one to thrive under the likely faster pace and kick on again form wise. I think 25s is a fair price at present.

I've had a good look at this race and agree with Euro its just impossible! Toimy son was my idea at 50's but i think he's been tipped up somewhere as he shortend up this afternoon. He's done nothing wrong since stepping back up in trip dotted up in the golden mile. Then would have beat Godwinson next time out if he'd got a clear run. Might well improve again for stepping up in trip. Anyway that aside i too had looked at Mr king but i actually like Jardines other runner better. Paddy the squire. He came back after a long break ran a cracker just behind Theory of everything who went on to win again what looks like a solid race at Ascot. Paddy again ran another cracking little race at Chester. For different reasons i thought he was slightly unlucky both times. I also think he'll be suited better by the test of the Cambridgeshire. He'll also be better at the weights with Theory of Everything whos chance i believe gets better the softer the ground gets.

Think i'd also be crossing my fingers for a highish draw marb after the last few years only 2 horses in a single figure draw have made the first 3 and I think i went back 8 years.

Anyway that other Jardine one is worth a look. Why Toimy boy was such a big price ill never know.

Good luck lads if youre having a spin on the Newmarket Roulette Saturday afternoon.

 

[Outsider]

I've had a pound ew on Zozimus100/1

Probably won't get in off this mark but he did last year.2 yrs ago he finished 4th when with Joseph o'brien off 94.
Last year off 85 he finished 14th but he wasn't beaten far after having to switch.
And of course its one of O'Meara's.

Im happy with the 33/1 i put Bopedro up at in an earlier post and just hope he gets a high draw.

 

[Marb]

I've had a good look at this race and agree with Euro its just impossible! Toimy son was my idea at 50's but i think he's been tipped up somewhere as he shortend up this afternoon. He's done nothing wrong since stepping back up in trip dotted up in the golden mile. Then would have beat Godwinson next time out if he'd got a clear run. Might well improve again for stepping up in trip. Anyway that aside i too had looked at Mr king but i actually like Jardines other runner better. Paddy the squire. He came back after a long break ran a cracker just behind Theory of everything who went on to win again what looks like a solid race at Ascot. Paddy again ran another cracking little race at Chester. For different reasons i thought he was slightly unlucky both times. I also think he'll be suited better by the test of the Cambridgeshire. He'll also be better at the weights with Theory of Everything whos chance i believe gets better the softer the ground gets.

Think i'd also be crossing my fingers for a highish draw marb after the last few years only 2 horses in a single figure draw have made the first 3 and I think i went back 8 years.

Anyway that other Jardine one is worth a look. Why Toimy boy was such a big price ill never know.

Good luck lads if youre having a spin on the Newmarket Roulette Saturday afternoon.

Toimy Son is still backable odds if you fancy him mate. You shouldn't be put off because someone on the Sporting Life tipped him at 40's or whatever. If anything that should boost confidence.

Paddy The Squire I'll have a saver on for sure, even though I couldn't have him over Mr King, who looks open to much more progress.

I'm waiting on what you said about a high draw before having a mans bet on Mr King. I think Sean Levey is an excellent jockey booking.

 

[Marb]

My fella drawn 33. Beware the mans bet...

 

[Marb]

I don't think there's any ante post prices for the Bronze and Silver Cups, with the three handicaps at Ayr all being tied in based on who makes the cut for what race. It doesn't matter to me anyway, as I want to see these two declared before throwing any money away.

One horse who is interesting if dropped back to six furlongs is Quest For Fun, from Tim Easterby's yard. He's battle hardened over seven furlongs in his racing career. However, there are question marks on this seasons form whether he is seeing out the seven furlong trip, so you could argue he's crying out for the drop to six furlongs now. I haven't been through all the weights yet, but I think he'd make the cut for the Silver Cup, and his handicap mark is workable.

Timothy Easterby has another horse I'm keeping an eye on called Valentine Catcher, who is not battle hardened, and the complete opposite to Quest For Fun, but still could be on the upward cup. He wasn't disgraced last time, where he may have just bounced second time out, after an excellent come back run, when winning first time out after his gelding operation. He actually had some half decent novice form too, so overall his profile for a race like the Ayr Bronze Cup is quite good.

Quest For Fun declared for Haydock tomorrow, (5 10), over 7 furlongs, or a class two at Ripon over six furlongs on Saturday.

I think I'd rather see him run on Saturday over the 6F.

 

[Outsider]

Cambridgeshire. Dutch Decoy + Majestic, proven in this race + handicapped to go well again in it.
Ponrios is an interesting 3yo. Particularly on his London gold Cup 2nd at Newbury.
They're my short list of 3.

Dutch decoy and majestic are overpriced imo.

 

[Marb]

Decided to keep stakes small this weekend. No mans bets. It's all too open, especially the Cambridgeshire.

 

[Marb]

Quest For Fun declared for Haydock tomorrow, (5 10), over 7 furlongs, or a class two at Ripon over six furlongs on Saturday.

I think I'd rather see him run on Saturday over the 6F.

He was bang there until a furlong out apparantly. He needs six furlongs. He could run tomorrow in Ripon's 3.20 over the six.

He goes on the soft and heavy. He'd have a chance. A token bet for me if he runs.

 

[Marb]

I've had a good look at this race and agree with Euro its just impossible! Toimy son was my idea at 50's but i think he's been tipped up somewhere as he shortend up this afternoon. He's done nothing wrong since stepping back up in trip dotted up in the golden mile. Then would have beat Godwinson next time out if he'd got a clear run. Might well improve again for stepping up in trip. Anyway that aside i too had looked at Mr king but i actually like Jardines other runner better. Paddy the squire. He came back after a long break ran a cracker just behind Theory of everything who went on to win again what looks like a solid race at Ascot. Paddy again ran another cracking little race at Chester. For different reasons i thought he was slightly unlucky both times. I also think he'll be suited better by the test of the Cambridgeshire. He'll also be better at the weights with Theory of Everything whos chance i believe gets better the softer the ground gets.

Think i'd also be crossing my fingers for a highish draw marb after the last few years only 2 horses in a single figure draw have made the first 3 and I think i went back 8 years.

Anyway that other Jardine one is worth a look. Why Toimy boy was such a big price ill never know.

Good luck lads if youre having a spin on the Newmarket Roulette Saturday afternoon.

Your fella Paddy into 12s or thereabouts, Danny. What a market move that is, from where he was earlier in the week. I've taken him, albeit at lesser odds than what he was, and my original fancy, the other Jardine horse, Mr King, who has drifted a bit too much the other way for my liking. But I'd settle for a place.

 

[Marb]

He was bang there until a furlong out apparantly. He needs six furlongs. He could run tomorrow in Ripon's 3.20 over the six.

He goes on the soft and heavy. He'd have a chance. A token bet for me if he runs.

Awful. There's no better trainer than Tim Easterby to make a tit of you. I give up.

 

[Euronymous]

Shite race. I thought the racing today up until the Cambs was top drawer and then you get a shit show like that. I backed Liberty Lane in the race last year, he was awful. Probably the last animal I'd have backed in it.

 

[Marb]

I'm having a good look at Hamsiyann in the Cesarewitch. He was a solid performer in France before being gelded and moving to Ireland. He's ran a couple eye-catching races, including one over hurdles. I get the impression he could be open to any amount of improvement. He's been nibbled at from 16s to 14s today. The owner likes a runner in these long distance flat races. Which boosts confidence that they will run the horse. I might get involved at 14s or so.

 

[Marb]

A few interesting entries for Kelso on Sunday in the grade 2 handicap chase. It'll be interesting to see if Traprain Law runs. I'd stick with him, provided there is cut in the ground. Light rain due tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday at Kelso. See if it gets in. This horse needs soft ground.

 

[Marb]

A few interesting entries for Kelso on Sunday in the grade 2 handicap chase. It'll be interesting to see if Traprain Law runs. I'd stick with him, provided there is cut in the ground. Light rain due tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday at Kelso. See if it gets in. This horse needs soft ground.

I'm not sure if the ground will be soft enough for Traprain Law?

I don't know. Trainer should pull him out if he can't act on good ground.

One that would like good ground is Malystic. He could run well again. But realistically I'll be disappointed if Traprain can't win this. He can reverse that form with Tommy's Oscar, on his way to better things.

 

[chaumi]

Traprain Law

I don't know. Trainer should pull him out if he can't act on good ground.

Lucinda appears to be moderately concerned, although has high hopes for the season.

"we are slightly worried about the ground as he would prefer softer conditions, especially first time out"

Could be they'll let him go (if it's safe enough) just to get this run out of the way.

 

[viking]

This belongs on the What are you backing today thread but Fringill Dike looks a decent price at 8/1

 

[Marb]

Lucinda appears to be moderately concerned, although has high hopes for the season.

"we are slightly worried about the ground as he would prefer softer conditions, especially first time out"

Could be they'll let him go (if it's safe enough) just to get this run out of the way.

She's pulled him out. The right thing to do.

 

[Marb]

I'm having a good look at Hamsiyann in the Cesarewitch. He was a solid performer in France before being gelded and moving to Ireland. He's ran a couple eye-catching races, including one over hurdles. I get the impression he could be open to any amount of improvement. He's been nibbled at from 16s to 14s today. The owner likes a runner in these long distance flat races. Which boosts confidence that they will run the horse. I might get involved at 14s or so.

Glad I didn't, not confirmed today. Dodged a bullet.

 

[Euronymous]

Couple for Friday. In the Old Rowley Cup I like the Menuisier trained Promethean who was most eye catching behind Grey Cuban at Doncaster of 10f. His trainer had Master Builder in this as well but pulled him at the five day stage, which was nice of him.

In the Challenge Stakes I do not like Noble Dynasty or Royal Scotsman at the front of the market and have dutched Witness Stand who looked well up to this level last time out and also the French trained Topgear who seems overpriced for this given his run in the Prix du Pin. The fourth that day was placed in the Foret yesterday and 8/1 appeals.

 

[Robicheaux]

Cesarewitch looks like an Irish benefit.. Bashful Boy, may be worth an ew poke. 4th last year, 4lb lower now. Hasn't run on the flat since. Given the stables history in the race, they'll probably have a crack. 66s available.

 

[Euronymous]

Jockey booked for Topgear, so presume he runs. And not Demuro which is a bonus.

I wouldn't have a clue about the Ces, I don't go above 12f when I video review the handicaps and next year I'm dropping 6f, they're becoming as bad as 5f sprints. This gives me way more time (so many 6f handicaps at class 4 and above) so I'm gonna start reviewing all 2yo races at listed level and above.

 

[viking]

The favourite for the Persian War on Friday looks very short for one that bombed in the Festival bumper. He may be much better than that but I’ll be looking elsewhere.
The Peter Bowen mare Flying Fortune looks progressive and may be value at 8/1 although she’s been on the go all summer
Brechin Castle was disappointing at Ascot in December and his absence since then is a worry

The other one that catches my eye is the intriguingly named Handlethekettle at 14/1 with Gavin Sheehan jocked up. The form of his recent win at Worcester may not be up to much but he did it well enough from the front

 

[Marb]

Not ante post anymore, but anyway.

I'm torn between three horses for the Sprint on Saturday. Can anyone help me out, what would you back of the three if the gun was at your head, and why. Saying to me don't have a bet is not allowed, that's a fannies way out.

El Bodon. Placed form in a group race and had the all important gelding operation, which appeals to me. No real form of soft ground though, if that's how it comes up.

Quest For fun. A horse I've believed wants 6 furlongs for a while. He gets it here, and his soft or heavy ground, but he does he have enough class? Would he be better over the same conditions, but in a class 3 or 4 now.

Secret Guest. This has improved lately, especially since the win operation. He has an each way chance for sure, although at the moment is third choice of the three for me.

Any help appreciated.

 

[Euronymous]

Gun to head I;d back Germanic in that. Looks all speed and 7 in a hot handicap at Ascot was too much for him.

Saturday looks hard, if there isn't much rain I'd be tempted by Saint Segal at Chepstow upped in trip and after a wind up.