Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Ground apparently despite being by Frankel out of a mare who acted on heavy. Hughie Morrison another old c*** who should do a Stoute and retire. Wanker.
 
Nice one, Reet. I did Cuban Grey the last time it ran at York, so had to to follow you in today, over the shorter distance.
 
I don't think there's any ante post prices for the Bronze and Silver Cups, with the three handicaps at Ayr all being tied in based on who makes the cut for what race. It doesn't matter to me anyway, as I want to see these two declared before throwing any money away.

One horse who is interesting if dropped back to six furlongs is Quest For Fun, from Tim Easterby's yard. He's battle hardened over seven furlongs in his racing career. However, there are question marks on this seasons form whether he is seeing out the seven furlong trip, so you could argue he's crying out for the drop to six furlongs now. I haven't been through all the weights yet, but I think he'd make the cut for the Silver Cup, and his handicap mark is workable.

Timothy Easterby has another horse I'm keeping an eye on called Valentine Catcher, who is not battle hardened, and the complete opposite to Quest For Fun, but still could be on the upward cup. He wasn't disgraced last time, where he may have just bounced second time out, after an excellent come back run, when winning first time out after his gelding operation. He actually had some half decent novice form too, so overall his profile for a race like the Ayr Bronze Cup is quite good.
 
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Relief Rally for the sprint at Newbury on Saturday - Hills are going 4s, 8s generally available still very backable. Powers initially went 12s which was crazy.
 
Ayr Gold Cup - Wiltshire 12/1, 5 places (Betfred) - I haven't studied the form for this yet and can't say I'm familiar with the horse but Haggas targets this race, has held this one back for three months and has entered it for the Champion Sprint race so I have to assume he rates it some way better than 101. It isn't like me to back a 12/1 shot at this stage; I'm usually looking for much bigger and likely to shorten but my gut is churning with this one and I can see it as the type Kealy or Segal would put up which would see it shorten.
 
chaumi said:
There's some evidence he doesn't like it too fast...and if it doesn't rain (as seems possible) it could well be GF by Saturday - "The ground went against him last time as it was a bit quick and he didn't let himself down on it."
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Cheers, chaumi. It didn't occur to me to check going requirements but I might get the chance to cash out and will decide if and when.

That said, I welcome the idea of an Ayr Gold Cup on fast ground. It doesn't happen all that often and they'll probably water the buggery out of it. They're calling it G/G-S just now but the going stick reading is 7.9 which would be fast on any other course.

There's no Turftrax map up yet.
 
Marhaba The Champ is in to run on Thursday and it will be a big surprise if KR lets him go on anything softer than good. That should at least be a clue to ground conditions come Thursday. But you're right DO, they could flood it at any time.
 
I almost had a huge antipost double on Constitution Hill and Bedtime Story...as luck would have it zI decided against it.. can't believe she finished stone last. What put me off was the price they were offering on Sunday..I would have made her 1/3 so something didn't sit well with it
 
Robicheaux said:
Cambridgeshire. I'm a little surprised Holloway Boy is as big as 33s (WH ).
His consistency his probably not helping his handicap mark, but given good, good to firm ground, he must go well. 33/1 looks generous to me.
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Unfortunately for me, Karl Burke said on Atr today, he's likely to go to the Balmoral on Champions day. Doubt he'll get decent ground there.
 
Oviedo is currently 40-1 B3 and 33-1 a couple of others for the Cambridgeshire. That looks very wrong. Was roughly 4-5 lengths down for the first three-quarters of last year's race on the far side, drifted left inside the last two which possibly lost more ground, and still finished strongly a length down.

This will be a carefully worked season target. It's likely Ed Bethell will expect to win or run close today at Ayr which could see that 40 disappear with 20-1 more likely.

Has new headgear today so there's even a plausible excuse if something goes wrong.


*****

Fivethousandtoone looks big enough at Ayr on Saturday (40-1 some) to warrant an attempt at a speculative EW double. Another one that may well have had this as a season target and looks set to get his ground.
 
Asc Oct 5th, Challenge Cup - I've taken the 10/1 on offer about Lethal Levi after his big win today. I reckon he'll go up at least 10lbs and will have only a 6lbs penalty. Only one bookie (Hills) is pricing the race up, presumably having taken the betting down to reappraise it following today's race, but 6lbs wouldn't have made any difference to LL today and it looks to me like he's suddenly started to improve a lot.

I actually went into his details to see if he was entered for the champions' sprint race since he looked better than a handicapper today but they'd need to supplement him for that.
 
Padishakh, probably went in a few notebooks today.
Surprising then you can get 50s + 33s for the Balmoral on Champions day.
A race the trainer likes to win.
 
There's some evidence (from French days) Padi might be better again on softer ground, too. Currently around 38 in the list (20 runners) but DOM has 5 or 6 higher up that he could choose to pull from if it looks tight nearer the time. I guess there's a chance he won't make it in either way???

My instinct was that Padishakh had a profile (mainly from France, up until yesterday) that potentially suggested he might be hovering around G3 level when DOM got him fully acclimatised and into top form. Yesterday could well have been that indicator, yes.
 
chaumi said:
Oviedo is currently 40-1 B3 and 33-1 a couple of others for the Cambridgeshire.
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Ran well under the level he should have been capable of at York the other day. I was hoping it was the ftv, but looks like he's been pulled from the Cambridgeshire. Suggests something may have gone amiss in the York race. Given current weather, the ground may well have gone against him by Saturday anyway.
 
chaumi said:
There's some evidence (from French days) Padi might be better again on softer ground, too. Currently around 38 in the list (20 runners) but DOM has 5 or 6 higher up that he could choose to pull from if it looks tight nearer the time. I guess there's a chance he won't make it in either way???

My instinct was that Padishakh had a profile (mainly from France, up until yesterday) that potentially suggested he might be hovering around G3 level when DOM got him fully acclimatised and into top form. Yesterday could well have been that indicator, yes.
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There is a meeting at Ascot a week on Sat, Oct 5th.
A valuable 7f, or mile handicap run that day. Escobar won it easily a couple of years ago. Same owner now has Padi. Let's see if he turns up there.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Asc Oct 5th, Challenge Cup - I've taken the 10/1 on offer about Lethal Levi after his big win today. I reckon he'll go up at least 10lbs and will have only a 6lbs penalty. Only one bookie (Hills) is pricing the race up, presumably having taken the betting down to reappraise it following today's race, but 6lbs wouldn't have made any difference to LL today and it looks to me like he's suddenly started to improve a lot.

I actually went into his details to see if he was entered for the champions' sprint race since he looked better than a handicapper today but they'd need to supplement him for that.
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To me this race looks way more palatable than the Cambridgeshire which is impossible. I've backed Akkadian Thunder who was most eye catching behind Fresh at the track recently.

I've taken 6/1 about Matauri Bay each way for the Royal Lodge next Saturday, Each Way because AOB has Lion of Winter in it at the moment. Beckett's horse has strong claims of reversing with Field of Gold over a mile imo.

Couple I've been mulling over - Relief Rally in the Abbaye (yesterday hurt, lost it at the start but loved the run and the ground might be similar in Paris) and switching to the jumps l'Homme Presse for the Betfair Chase. He ran a smasher in the Gold Cup up until two out and I'd have him as the best horse in the race. Problem is who knows what tf Venetia will do with him.
 
Cambridgeshire. Dutch Decoy + Majestic, proven in this race + handicapped to go well again in it.
Ponrios is an interesting 3yo. Particularly on his London gold Cup 2nd at Newbury.
They're my short list of 3.
 
I'm on Poniros. Got 33s last night - upset Ralph has kept him to 12f after he patently didn't stay at Royal Ascot but this should suit him. Also had a little on Balmacara who should be suited by the ground. I laughed when I saw an Emmet Mullins horse shortening for the race. This is flat racing, Irish handicappers don't enjoy the advantage in this realm that they do over the sticks.
 
I reckon Mr King is a player you know.

A gradual improver for Ger Lyons in Ireland. He finished off racing over there when giving a horse called Barbapapa 4lbs and a length and a half beating. That horse is no mug in his own right, having recently ran well at big odds in a class two at Newcastle. Mr King's had three runs for Iain Jardine over here, with the last run being at Ayr, when a very eye catching third, especially given he was too keen. Only a couple of necks behind Aragon Castle that day. He could be one to thrive under the likely faster pace and kick on again form wise. I think 25s is a fair price at present.
 
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