Anybody got a portfolio for Cheltenham yet?

I don't think there's much value in that bet though. I can see him being 12/1 in February given his tendency to be a bit in and out in the winter and how competitive the GC market will be compared to the novice events.
 
fonz said:
Champagne Fever for the GC can be added to that at 14/1
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Why not. I think you just keep adding a different 4th leg between here and January and then have a massive spread out position come March. Just watch the max payouts!
 
Euronymous said:
I don't think there's much value in that bet though. I can see him being 12/1 in February given his tendency to be a bit in and out in the winter and how competitive the GC market will be compared to the novice events.
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True his annual stinker at Christmas will see him pushed out but his festival form will see him backed into single figures at least, The same would be true with the Ryanair but with a shorter price.
 
Slim,
Is this a new strategy or one you gone with before?
I wait until just before the November Cheltenham meeting to jump in with the multiples. I pick a core of 3 or 4 and do a series of either Yankees or super Yankees . There are genuine markets at that time. You are right about max payouts, spreadsheets are required. For relatively small amounts you can hit the limit of several bookies. Make sure you know the limits!
I've been doing this for 30 plus years. Nowadays it is possible to do much more thorough research and it is no coincidence that that my average returns are much better in recent years with the amount of data available and wider more competitive markets. Whilst there are years when I go into Friday hoping for a place double these have fortunately been surprisingly few.
My own experience leads me to discard horse that are less than 4/1 as a) stakes need to be higher to win the target amount, b) the short priced ones I've picked do not do better than longer shots and the game is to make a significant amount to balance risk/reward.
Lose and you haven't lost much but get an early winner and you are buzzing. In addition throughout the winter you can calculate your virtual profit as the odds shorten which makes one feel superior until a selection is directed to a different race.
 
No this is more in relation to Willie Mullins. He is the key to all the novice races. Guess the right races and your multiple is worth over ten fold. I'm looking for spots to put my money in cheap where the odds can collapse. The targets of Mullins string is completely related yet bookmakers don't price accordingly.

Again this will go over the head of the likes of Bar The Bull.
 
Tout Seul said:
Slim,
Is this a new strategy or one you gone with before?
I wait until just before the November Cheltenham meeting to jump in with the multiples. I pick a core of 3 or 4 and do a series of either Yankees or super Yankees . There are genuine markets at that time. You are right about max payouts, spreadsheets are required. For relatively small amounts you can hit the limit of several bookies. Make sure you know the limits!
I've been doing this for 30 plus years. Nowadays it is possible to do much more thorough research and it is no coincidence that that my average returns are much better in recent years with the amount of data available and wider more competitive markets. Whilst there are years when I go into Friday hoping for a place double these have fortunately been surprisingly few.
My own experience leads me to discard horse that are less than 4/1 as a) stakes need to be higher to win the target amount, b) the short priced ones I've picked do not do better than longer shots and the game is to make a significant amount to balance risk/reward.
Lose and you haven't lost much but get an early winner and you are buzzing. In addition throughout the winter you can calculate your virtual profit as the odds shorten which makes one feel superior until a selection is directed to a different race.
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Interesting, TS. I've never considered this kind of approach.
 
SlimChance said:
No this is more in relation to Willie Mullins. He is the key to all the novice races. Guess the right races and your multiple is worth over ten fold. I'm looking for spots to put my money in cheap where the odds can collapse. The targets of Mullins string is completely related yet bookmakers don't price accordingly.

Again this will go over the head of the likes of Bar The Bull.
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Briar Hill looks worth a look then in the RSA. He's a pure stayer so won't be Jewson bound and I cannot believe he'll stay hurdling. Willie strikes me as not giving two shits about the World Hurdle.
 
SlimChance said:
But I'm using the doubt to my advantage.
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In that the doubt about one horse's participation in a race (and hence the potentially skinniness of his price) is more than compensated by the prices of the other 2 as you are taking the view he essentially has 3 horse for 3 races and if you guess the correct race for the first horse, the odds for the other 2 represent decent value.

I agree with Euro on briar's hill.
 
SlimChance said:
Yeah I'm easily confused by this ditch jumping nonsense. My mistake.

Faugheen - Champion
Vaultour - Jewson
Arkle - Un De Sceaux

That's the 3 legs of a Lucky 15 life changer. It's important to remember the whole year that Willie Mullins runners are fairly related in that only one will go for each race so there is an edge in getting the right horses for the right races in multiples. This will be over the head of a few on here.
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Cant see Un De Sceaux over fences, Vautour will be there Arkle horse.

I'd prefer the Ricci treble of:

Faugheen Champ, Vautour Arkle, Champagne Fever GC
 
Hamm said:
In that the doubt about one horse's participation in a race (and hence the potentially skinniness of his price) is more than compensated by the prices of the other 2 as you are taking the view he essentially has 3 horse for 3 races and if you guess the correct race for the first horse, the odds for the other 2 represent decent value.

I agree with Euro on briar's hill.
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Correct. Their prices are completely related.

My self and OnTheBridle backed Faugheen/Briar Hill for the opposite races they ran in last year in a double for small stakes. Although we done our money if they did switch we were getting 3,000/25 about a 10/1 shot. You've got to look past winners and losers and realise there is a potential to put your money in ridiculously good for button stakes.

Surely that's what we're all trying to do?

Last year I started a thread about doing e/w multiples involving horses in the Champion Chase. had anyone listened to me they would have been corking Champagne when Sprinter Sacre got injured because they were on for a potential jackpot.
 
Euronymous said:
Briar Hill looks worth a look then in the RSA. He's a pure stayer so won't be Jewson bound and I cannot believe he'll stay hurdling. Willie strikes me as not giving two shits about the World Hurdle.
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Reckon he mite be a dog you know. Might end up a national horse. He will handle better ground.

Not one that excites me to be honest
 
SlimChance said:
Correct. Their prices are completely related.

My self and OnTheBridle backed Faugheen/Briar Hill for the opposite races they ran in last year in a double for small stakes. Although we done our money if they did switch we were getting 3,000/25 about a 10/1 shot. You've got to look past winners and losers and realise there is a potential to put your money in ridiculously good for button stakes.

Surely that's what we're all trying to do?

Last year I started a thread about doing e/w multiples involving horses in the Champion Chase. had anyone listened to me they would have been corking Champagne when Sprinter Sacre got injured because they were on for a potential jackpot.
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This is true.
 
Frankel said:
Don Poli could be his RSA horse.
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Possibly more likely to go the Jewson route.
Interesting that On His Own opened WPM's eyes about Gold Cup types.
After the Thystes he stated that the Dreaper Gold Cup horses won handicaps like The Thystes off top weight leading all the way and using their jumping ability to full advantage.
Do not be surprised if he takes this type of route more often in future.
RSA is notoriously tough on younger horses without racing experience as WP knows to his cost.
 
Just not sure he's got enough boot to win a Jewson edgt, though I could be wrong. I know he won the handicap at the festival, but he was flat to the boards for the most of that.

Get your point regards taking the less taxing route of the Jewson, with the future in mind.
 
The Gold Cup betting will probably go topsy turvy between now and March. No doubt Bobsworth will win something and be shortened up as will Silviana Conte.

Can't see Jonjo changing Holywell's routine of training him on the course so he'll probably drift.

If Simonsig wins the King George he'll be nearer 2/1 than the current 20/1.

No doubt a couple of others will come into the reckoning but the likes of Champagne Fever, Boston Bob last years winner LW, O'F's Boy, Cue Card and Boston Boy I can't see any of them ever winning a Gold Cup.

The one horse I wouldn't be concerned about drifting in the market is Holywell. He's never won 1st tie up and it's doubtful if Jonjo will push to get him fit before the King George if he decides to take that route.

He's now won twice at the Festival and was even more impressive when AP rode him at Aintree so he's def going the right way.

He's only 7 years old coming on 8 and sure to improve and he's, at this time, my idea of the most likely winner.
 
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