Arc 2016

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
19,195
Location
Leyland
Odds at the end of July:

11/2 Postponed
6/1 Harzand
8/1 Minding
12/1 US Army Ranger
14/1 Le Cressonniere
16/1 Almanzor, New Bay, Found, Makahiki
20/1 Highland Reel, Fascinating Rock, Hawkbill


Postponed looks solid and missing the King George might be a big help. The thing that jumps off the page for me is the price differential between
Harzand and USAR. Normally I'd be against any Ballydoyle 3yo for an Arc as they are usually racing when they should be resting in high summer, but USAR hasn't run since Epsom and I make him a bet. Fascinating Rock is also overpriced.
 
Fascinating Rock's price doesn't look big enough given the fact that he's likely to defend his champion stakes crown 2 weeks after
The Irish 3yo's look rock solid for this I can't see anything being a threat from France and I agree USAR is definetly overpriced but I've already had a few quid on Harzand, DK will have him spot on for this.
 
Surely Fascinsting Rock wouldn't be good enough to win an Arc v a fair classic generation. I'd prefer the Derby winner to him.

Agree on the USAR shout.
 
Having been to the Arc at Longchamp quite a few times, I'm keen to sample Chantilly this year. If anyone has been racing there before, any tips would be most appreciated. Has anyone stayed out there or is it easier just to go from Paris (Gare du Nord I believe). Anything with regard to travel to the track etc would be helpful.
 
I thought Fascinating Rock ran a belter yesterday. Still 20s+ for the Arc. Obviously the worry is Weld is gearing up for the Champion Stakes again but the horse was off virtually all summer and basically gave the Eclipse away so surely the point of that absence was to give the horse a busy Autumn campaign.
 
The course should suit Postponed but something bothers me about him. I think with older horses you want as much on your side as possible given the disadvantage they have with the slanted WFA scale. And his trainer never having a runner in the race before and him missing the KG puts me off.

I've been burnt on Japanese horses in this in the past and Makahiki hasn't got that magnificence surrounding him like Deep Impact and Orfevre had. He's too short.

I've gone off Fascinating Rock because like Postponed he's missed an intended target. Will lay off if he makes the field.

My only bet now will be New Bay (aside from a wonky looking position on TGG.) Fabre's horse ran a cracker in the ICS where he was disadvantaged in relation to the front two with how the race was run. His price is simply too big and I think he'll hit the frame.
 
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Euronymous said:
I've been burnt on Japanese horses in this in the past and Makahiki hasn't got that magnificence surrounding him like Deep Impact and Orfevre had. He's too short.

.
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makahiki is not orfevre or his father , at least yet,
those 2 were 135 horses but were much more experienced than makahiki is


makahiki is a 125p in my figures and the only one with similar level is Postponed,
i think he was fat and not fully fit and did it very well to give midterm and fabres horse a start.


orefrve was more talented but was quirky but this one is a proffesional one with a turn of for and dos not more than required. He is a big horse (more than 500kg), and has had an ideal preparation for an arc,

Japanesse learning the prep is not the day, Orefvre was overcooked in the second arc and run a stinker.


i am big at 16s but still 8s is huge, i think if the ground is not heavy he will win the big one and possibly in style.
 
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Euronymous said:
The course should suit Postponed but something bothers me about him. I think with older horses you want as much on your side as possible given the disadvantage they have with the slanted WFA scale.
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Three-year-olds receive 8lbs from their elders in the Arc. That's exactly the same as Timeform's wfa scale at 12f in early October. John Whitley's Computer Racing Form has three-year-olds receiving 7lbs from those aged five and up, 6lbs from four-year-olds. If Timeform are right, the official scale isn't slanted at all. If Whitley is right, it's slanted by 1-2lbs max.

I've always accepted the wfa scale as something that has withstood the test of time and which is basically fair. I'd never second-guess these number-crunchers, all of whom have gone into it in vastly greater depth than I'll ever have the time/resources/inclination to do.
 
Timeform's WFA is actually 7lb. You're probably correct about it not making too much difference, in fact my position on the race has always been that 3yos have such a great record in the race because they tend to be prepared better for the race than their elders who tend to race in mid summer.

There are examples where the WFA scale for me is wrong. I think 3yos get too much weight at the end of July/Aug and I always favour them strongly in the Sussex.
 
I find it hard to see past La Cressonniere.

She showed a potent turn of foot when winning the French Oaks here over 1.5f less and her sire was an impressive winner of the French Derby over that C&D while her Galileo sired Dam should offer the required stamina to help her see out the extra 300+ yards.

The double figure prices have gone unfortunately but that's somewhat mitigated by a number of opponents failing to sparkle in the run-up.

6/1 is still a fair price for the unbeaten filly who'll get all the allowances and won't mind whichever way the ground goes (unknown in the unlikely event that it has the word "firm" in it at the start of October)
 
wilsonl said:
I find it hard to see past La Cressonniere.

She showed a potent turn of foot when winning the French Oaks here over 1.5f less and her sire was an impressive winner of the French Derby over that C&D while her Galileo sired Dam should offer the required stamina to help her see out the extra 300+ yards.

The double figure prices have gone unfortunately but that's somewhat mitigated by a number of opponents failing to sparkle in the run-up.

6/1 is still a fair price for the unbeaten filly who'll get all the allowances and won't mind whichever way the ground goes (unknown in the unlikely event that it has the word "firm" in it at the start of October)
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I dont think she is good enough to be placed, she has not beaten nothing of interest at the moment.


about the ground, she is a doubtful stayer, so heavy ground a negative for her.
 
The pouliches form was decent and while she may have subsequently only proven that she can handle the step up to 10f okay I won't dwell on the old argument about she's only beaten what's been put up against her but regarding the ground, heavy would hardly be a positive for her two closest rivals in the betting either so I'd prefer to take the chance that she'd see the extra 1.5f out on ground she's shown a liking for than either Postponed or Makahiki would go on it.

Unlikely to be heavy ground anyhow.
 
sunybay said:
I dont think she is good enough to be placed, she has not beaten nothing of interest at the moment.


about the ground, she is a doubtful stayer, so heavy ground a negative for her.
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I don't think there's anything in her pedigree to put one off thinking she'd stay 12f. Her dam comes from the Aureole/Highclere family and her fourth dam was a full-sister to Highclere and her third dam a 3 parts sister to Milford. The weakest part of her dam's pedigree stamina-wise is Kris, who was perfectly capable of getting staying stock if put to the right mares. The trouble with her pedigree is that her dam was a non-winner (have no idea why) and her grand-dam won over no further than 7f. But those two being by Galileo and Kris hardly damages the overall impression of the stamina being there in the mix.
 
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The fact that this year's Arc is being run at Chantilly (and next year's as well, by the way) must make a difference and give a bigger advantage than usual to the locals. It's a difficult track to ride because of the tight, downhill Tramore-style bottom bend and long uphill finish. Timing is everything because it's easy to kick on too early in the straight, especially in a big field.
 
SKY SPORTS has stepped into the breach left by Channel 4 and will broadcast more than three hours of live coverage of the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe from Chantilly next month.
While both Racing UK and At The Races are already committed to covering Europe's richest race, the event will be without terrestrial coverage for the second time in four years.
The programme on Sky Sports 2 will feature all the build-up to the big race, which is due off at 3.05pm BST, as well as several of the supporting Group 1s on the card.
Sky Sports 2 is available in more than six million homes across the UK.
Sky have previously taken evening meetings in conjunction with At The Races, as well as broadcasts from the Dubai World Cup Carnival.
In another boost to the race's profile there will a special 20-minute highlights show on Eurosport from 4.30pm.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
SKY SPORTS has stepped into the breach left by Channel 4 and will broadcast more than three hours of live coverage of the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe from Chantilly next month.
While both Racing UK and At The Races are already committed to covering Europe's richest race, the event will be without terrestrial coverage for the second time in four years.
The programme on Sky Sports 2 will feature all the build-up to the big race, which is due off at 3.05pm BST, as well as several of the supporting Group 1s on the card.
Sky Sports 2 is available in more than six million homes across the UK.
Sky have previously taken evening meetings in conjunction with At The Races, as well as broadcasts from the Dubai World Cup Carnival.
In another boost to the race's profile there will a special 20-minute highlights show on Eurosport from 4.30pm.
Click to expand...

I'd have thought that anyone with a Sky package but who doesn't have RUK would watch the Sky Sports coverage in preference to ATR's if only for the difference in picture quality. It's a huge downside of ATR generally.
 
Thought it was only at Chantilly for this year? Anyway, going for the weekend so someone post up the winner will you please. Lets face it, need a couple of winners now after Brexit ;)
 
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