Arkle

tatenham not only extra weight but ground will probably go against him trainer keeps commenting how he needs cut,

his best run was last time for which he is now worse off at the weights with the horse that beat him.

a chase victory over straw bear is not the sign of a future champion

its a hard race to make all as well especially as hobbs horse is likely to contest the lead with him

i like paddytheplaster who recent defeats i think are due to the distance being to far my concern with this horse is the proximity of his last race not an ideal prep having a slog in heavy ground his rsa run does give some hope he can act on the track
 
Grasshopper said:
Don't think I've back-tracked at all, clivex - only given context to what "rock solid" meant.

What's interesting for me, is that I think ISTB's, by dint of his performances, has more or less forced Nicholls into running him here. I'm sure they would have preferred to wait until Aintree with him, but he has surprised them to such an extent that they pretty much have to run him in the Arkle - just in case they are wrong about the track.
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I think this is an excellent point Grasshopper, especially given how sweet he is on Tatenen. Track aside (which could be a big negative) ISTB does seem to have a lot going for him.

I'd single out Kalahari King as the one I'd give a bit of a chance to against the Nicholls pair.
 
I'd go along with Warbler regarding the pace of the Leopardstown race, SteveM. That said, you've convinced me Tatenen will finish in front of Follow The Plan come Tuesday.

As I mentioned before, I backed Kalahari King a while back and am keeping my fingers crossed that the ground doesn't go.
 
clivex said:
Not that figure over the jumps though is it? Hes always looked far more like a chaser in the making so stats like that mean little to me. Stats often mean little to me frankly.....

I believe he looks the part and i like the way he stayed up that hill last time at Cheltenham. Really do believe that that extra bit of stamina can be crucial in these particular races
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The figure over jumps is 33% of course (still well below what's normally required) Champleve, Azertyuiop, Well Chief and VPU were all 100%, as indeed Moscow Flyer would have been on completed starts. Only Ventana Canyon 40% and Contraband 25% were under a 66% threshold.

I take on board that jumping and hurdles are different and clearly some horses are better equipped than others to perform the task, but losing horses tend to make a habit of it, as even if the horse always was a prospective chaser, there shoudl have been enough opportunities for his class to push his career record beyond 18% regardless of the obstacles. It all suggests to me that he lacks the required class to win races. By the time they took their Arkle in most aspiring group 1 winners would expect to be over 50%.


Champleve 80%
Or Royal 62%
Tidal Bay 58%
Well Chief 57%
Azerty 55%
Flagship 55%
VPU 55%
MWDS 50%
Moscow 48%
Contraband 38%
Ventana 33%

There's a quite tight spread there with 5 horses covered by just 3%, or 8 by 10%.

At 18% Calgary Bay is way off the radar. Even the poorest career performer has twice his strike rate.

I think the horse has been subjected to quick races before, but the only time he's been subjected to a really fast one at Championship speed (winners TS's against RPR's) that I could find he came 18th.

As someone who's fond of the gospel of St Paul, you might be interested to hear what Nicholls said of the horse at a preview evening in Exeter.

" I can't have Calgary Bay, his form isn't great. He's a decent horse but not for me."
 
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The figure over jumps is 33% of course (still well below what's normally required) Champleve, Azertyuiop, Well Chief and VPU were all 100%, as indeed Moscow Flyer would have been on completed starts. Only Ventana Canyon 40% and Contraband 25% were under a 66% threshold.
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bloody hell warbler. Its hardly from the biggest sample is it? 3 races?

By that logic, some beast thats won three rubbish novices and some gaffs would stand a better chance than one thats been slogging away against the best of the generation?

Im not saying that hes got a "rock solid" chance but at the odds (and i wonder whether many of the above went off same or longer price?), hes worth a look on what he looks to possibly be capable of.
 
Well you set the sample size Clive be refusing to accept that any hurdles form was any indicator of a horses ability to jump a fence. I know what you're saying, and at one level you'd be right, having said that, I still think it's a consideration when assessing a horses likely level of 'class'.

I doubt many horses that have been farming their way round gaff tracks would be pitched into an Arkle without having tested their credentials at some point. The only one I can think of was Well Chief, but he had been runner up in a Triumph, so there was a hint that he possessed a degree of class prior to the race, and his trainers record was such that you'd have to respect his judgement. Others like Don't Push It (Stratford) or Twist Magic (Fakenham) debuted at gaff tracks but they would go on to test themselves against better opposition in time prior to launching unsuccessful Arkle bids. Mind you TM was 30% in all races and 50% over fences, where as Don't Push It was 71% and 75% finding only Denman too good.
 
Cannot work this race out at all, was completely against Tatenen since Christmas but almost be default I am coming back to him. Gone against Calgary Bay completely....think its a race for place bets.
 
This years Arkle is a pretty average group with not alot between them. I can't have Calgary Bay on both form alone and trainer comments. Re-looking at the form this morning im going to have a saver on Planet of Sound
 
Reports from my on course advisers say that wind is drying tack. so i'll have a go at Kalahari King
 
One of the best rides of the season from Barry G...I do not say that too often but he was absolutely brilliant there.
 
The key to FPTP it seems is a strong pace an aggresive ride. This is unlikely to be seen in an Irish Chase so I guess allowances can be made for his early season form

not a bad start for Ireland :)
 
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