Arkle

5 day stage:

Bringbackthebiff (NZ) 7.g
Calgary Bay (IRE) 6.g
Cheating Chance (IRE) 8.g
Cool Operator 6.g
Cornas (NZ) 7.g
Follow The Plan (IRE) 6.g
Forpadydeplasterer (IRE) 7.g
Gauvain (GER) 7.g
Golden Silver (FR) 7.g
I'msingingtheblues (IRE) 7.g
I'm So Lucky 7.g
Kalahari King (FR) 8.g
Made In Taipan (IRE) 7.g
Northern Alliance (IRE) 8.g
Original (FR) 7.g
Panjo Bere (FR) 6.g
Planet of Sound 7.g
Tartak (FR) 6.g
Tatenen (FR) 5.g
 
Hamm said:
Haven't they just gone NRNB though Steve? Perhaps that's the reason.

He does seem to me like he'd be better on a flat track, and he looked to be travelling very well in the County last year (poorly ridden that day) before failing to make much inroad up the hill.
Click to expand...


They went NRNB a couple of days ago, so it's been there for a couple of days.

I agree with you about the flatter track idea, but he does seem quite classy to me. probably top-rated, although Tatenen is the top-rated ex-hurdler, which is significant in this.
 
I didn't recognise Tatenen as top rated hurdler, and am amazed he has been given a mark of 148 for his Chepstow second.

Very few classy horses in this.

I couldn't bring myself to back any horse with Christian Williams on it in a Championship race.

It all depends on the ground for me, and may wait till after the Supreme to bet. If it is good to soft, Planet of Sound and Follow the Plan look worth following. I can't work out Follow the Plan's price compared with Tatenen when you consider he beat him giving 12 pounds and it is Follow the Plan who will improve for the likely ground.
 
Hamm said:
I didn't recognise Tatenen as top rated hurdler, and am amazed he has been given a mark of 148 for his Chepstow second.

Very few classy horses in this.

I couldn't bring myself to back any horse with Christian Williams on it in a Championship race.

It all depends on the ground for me, and may wait till after the Supreme to bet. If it is good to soft, Planet of Sound and Follow the Plan look worth following. I can't work out Follow the Plan's price compared with Tatenen when you consider he beat him giving 12 pounds and it is Follow the Plan who will improve for the likely ground.
Click to expand...

I think Forpadytheplaster and Golden Silver will be the best of the Irish horses. Weither they are good enough I do not know.
 
The book for this race is all wrong surely?. In fact it looks set up for Mounty to solve;

Are we really being asked to believe that a horse that's won just 2 races in 11 attempts is second favourite? Previous top novices weren't being out battled by 16/1 shots in January on prep. Has a horse ever won an Arkle with a career S/R of under 20%? They keep making excuses for Calgary Bay and there reaches a point where something doesn't quite ring true. I'msingingtheblues holds him by a length at Doncaster having given 6Ibs anyway, and there's a few who hold him on hurdles form too.

Tatenen's task might have been easier a few years ago, but I think it's going to take a pretty good 5yo to win now on the revised terms, although a useful one could prevail in a weak renewal I suppose, but I'm not about to start chancing my arm to see if its him at 9/2. In any event, he was beaten at Leopardstown fair and square on ground riding +0.21 (typical of a Tuesday) and he has an extra 9Ibs to go on his back.

I'msingingtheblues's participation looks to be under a degree of obligation. Outside of Cheltenham he looks to have been campaigned with a preference in mind and I can't help but wonder if a performance pattern isn't emerging based around flat tracks?

flat tracks = 1, 1, 2, 1, 5, 1, 1, 3 = 62%

The only undulating track he appears to have encountered is Prestbury Park where he's a distinctly underwhelming

3, 7, 3, 1 = 25%

Kalahari King might be exhibiting a right handed preference?

L/H = 2, 3, 4, 2, 4 = 0 from 5
R/H = 1, 1, 1, 1, 3 = 80%

It's worth conceeding however that a lot of these defeats have been in decent company and a S/R of 0 from 5 doesn't really refelect the level of form.

Planet of Sound has me interested and I need to check out how many times he's been pitched into a truly run race. There's another pattern based around race distance though whcih would worry you a bit. How many Arkle winners are having their first distance success at the Festival

16F = 3, 4, 2, 4 = 0 from 4
17F+ = 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, = 66%


Which brings me to Forpadydeplasterer, Golden Silver, Original and Follow The Plan as an outsider as he looks ground dependent and has been strugglign in his latest two runs where he's encountered -7.86 at Leopardstown and -13.53 at Navan. If he returns to the form shown on Boxing Day on the faster ground he had at Leopardstown when giving 11Ibs and a narrow beating to Tatenen then he looks like being the forgotten value.

In short all of those italicised are bigger prices than a horse that has only won twice in 11 starts, another that's only won once from 4 on an undulating track despite doing very well on flat tracks, another that's never won from 5 attempts going left handed, and finally one that's never won at 2 miles form 4 attempts. Where as the horses would be good enough to rectify these records, you'd normally expect them to do it in prep or in softer engagements than a grade 1 novice showpiece.
 
Hamm said:
I didn't recognise Tatenen as top rated hurdler, and am amazed he has been given a mark of 148 for his Chepstow second.

Very few classy horses in this.

I couldn't bring myself to back any horse with Christian Williams on it in a Championship race.

It all depends on the ground for me, and may wait till after the Supreme to bet. If it is good to soft, Planet of Sound and Follow the Plan look worth following. I can't work out Follow the Plan's price compared with Tatenen when you consider he beat him giving 12 pounds and it is Follow the Plan who will improve for the likely ground.
Click to expand...

-------I

think the reason would be that Tatenen ran well below his previous form due probably to the way the race was run and that the 11lb difference doesn’t look too much of an issue to be turned around against this one (who personally I don't fancy).
 
Warbler said:
The book for this race is all wrong surely?. In fact it looks set up for Mounty to solve;

Are we really being asked to believe that a horse that's won just 2 races in 11 attempts is second favourite? Previous top novices weren't being out battled by 16/1 shots in January on prep. Has a horse ever won an Arkle with a career S/R of under 20%? They keep making excuses for Calgary Bay and there reaches a point where something doesn't quite ring true. I'msingingtheblues holds him by a length at Doncaster having given 6Ibs anyway, and there's a few who hold him on hurdles form too.

Tatenen's task might have been easier a few years ago, but I think it's going to take a pretty good 5yo to win now on the revised terms, although a useful one could prevail in a weak renewal I suppose, but I'm not about to start chancing my arm to see if its him at 9/2. In any event, he was beaten at Leopardstown fair and square on ground riding +0.21 (typical of a Tuesday) and he has an extra 9Ibs to go on his back.

I'msingingtheblues's participation looks to be under a degree of obligation. Outside of Cheltenham he looks to have been campaigned with a preference in mind and I can't help but wonder if a performance pattern isn't emerging based around flat tracks?

flat tracks = 1, 1, 2, 1, 5, 1, 1, 3 = 62%

The only undulating track he appears to have encountered is Prestbury Park where he's a distinctly underwhelming

3, 7, 3, 1 = 25%

Kalahari King might be exhibiting a right handed preference?

L/H = 2, 3, 4, 2, 4 = 0 from 5
R/H = 1, 1, 1, 1, 3 = 80%

It's worth conceeding however that a lot of these defeats have been in decent company and a S/R of 0 from 5 doesn't really refelect the level of form.

Planet of Sound has me interested and I need to check out how many times he's been pitched into a truly run race. There's another pattern based around race distance though whcih would worry you a bit. How many Arkle winners are having their first distance success at the Festival

16F = 3, 4, 2, 4 = 0 from 4
17F+ = 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, = 66%


Which brings me to Forpadydeplasterer, Golden Silver, Original and Follow The Plan as an outsider as he looks ground dependent and has been strugglign in his latest two runs where he's encountered -7.86 at Leopardstown and -13.53 at Navan. If he returns to the form shown on Boxing Day on the faster ground he had at Leopardstown when giving 11Ibs and a narrow beating to Tatenen then he looks like being the forgotten value.

In short all of those italicised are bigger prices than a horse that has only won twice in 11 starts, another that's only won once from 4 on an undulating track despite doing very well on flat tracks, another that's never won from 5 attempts going left handed, and finally one that's never won at 2 miles form 4 attempts. Where as the horses would be good enough to rectify these records, you'd normally expect them to do it in prep or in softer engagements than a grade 1 novice showpiece.
Click to expand...


Good analysis Warbler. I agree with almost all you say, but can't fancy any of those in your conclusion.

I agree it will be difficult for a 5yo, but if Tatenen doesn't win, I'm a bit stumped as to who will.
 
Historically it's been a race where you haven't needed to look outside the front 5 Steve, but if it is going to throw up a winner at a bigger price then this looks as a good a year as any to do so. There's certainly enough reasons to oppose thos eat the front of the market, and I'm wondering if punters haven't fully latched onto the loss of the 5yo allowance yet, and it might take a couple of renewals for things to adjust? Something looks very. very wrong to me at this stage, but then I've got a lousy record in this race:)
 
Warbler said:
Historically it's been a race where you haven't needed to look outside the front 5 Steve, but if it is going to throw up a winner at a bigger price then this looks as a good a year as any to do so. There's certainly enough reasons to oppose thos eat the front of the market, and I'm wondering if punters haven't fully latched onto the loss of the 5yo allowance yet, and it might take a couple of renewals for things to adjust? Something looks very. very wrong to me at this stage, but then I've got a lousy record in this race:)
Click to expand...


Again I agree with virtually every word of this. But when it comes down to those that are left I just can't bring myself to touch any of them. No doubt something will win it...

Anyone got a strong idea outside of The default favourite (Tatenen)?
 
I personally think I'msingingtheblues is rock solid.

His handicap win off 147 is form good enough to win an ordinary Arkle, and if his OR of 157 is to believed (I personally couldn't have him quite that highly rated) he is a steering job. He jumps and has shown plenty of resolution in his last three outings - both of which will come in handy in what is usually an attritional race.

Concerns about the flat track are over-played imo, and I think there are few negatives about the horse. That said, stable confidence seems to be quite low, and I've therefore tempered enthusiasm to go back in again, as I'm already on at fancy prices.
 
Grasshopper said:
I personally think I'msingingtheblues is rock solid.

His handicap win off 147 is form good enough to win an ordinary Arkle, and if his OR of 157 is to believed (I personally couldn't have him quite that highly rated) he is a steering job. He jumps and has shown plenty of resolution in his last three outings - both of which will come in handy in what is usually an attritional race.

Concerns about the flat track are over-played imo, and I think there are few negatives about the horse. That said, stable confidence seems to be quite low, and I've therefore tempered enthusiasm to go back in again, as I'm already on at fancy prices.
Click to expand...


That's helpful. I've actually come round to this way of thinking in the past couple of days and backed I'msing each-way NRNB today. Already on Tatenen at not much bigger than he is now.
 
I've already got a small bit on Follow The Plan. He has a fine chance based on the figures, he has won over further, he is a battler and his breeding suggests he should improve on his last two runs, which were on heavy ground.
 
I think he's the value Grey, I can't understand (well I can, but I wouldn't agree with it) why a horse who beat the favourite on good ground is five times his price with Hills, especially as he was giving him 11Ibs to boot. My own figure tells me it was +0.21 which is a typical Tuesday going correction, and that the race itself was truly run, as he's put up a more than respectable speed figure (with me that is)
 
SteveM said:
-------I

think the reason would be that Tatenen ran well below his previous form due probably to the way the race was run and that the 11lb difference doesn’t look too much of an issue to be turned around against this one (who personally I don't fancy).
Click to expand...

What exactly about the way the race was run didn't suit Tatenen, SteveM? They went a decent enough gallop that day anyway. Do you reckon 2m around Leopardstown on decent ground wasn't enough of a test for Tatenen?

I'm not sure what to make of the race at all. Follow The Plan looks the value on the form, but I just have trouble seeing him have the class to win an Arkle, despite the better ground. I've never been a plan of Forpadydeplasterer's attitude.
 
trackside528 said:
What exactly about the way the race was run didn't suit Tatenen, SteveM? They went a decent enough gallop that day anyway. Do you reckon 2m around Leopardstown on decent ground wasn't enough of a test for Tatenen?

I'm not sure what to make of the race at all. Follow The Plan looks the value on the form, but I just have trouble seeing him have the class to win an Arkle, despite the better ground. I've never been a plan of Forpadydeplasterer's attitude.
Click to expand...


By Racing Post figures Tatenen ran 17lb worse at Leopardstown than previously at Cheltenham. Apart from not being the same horse that day, for what ever reason (travelling was mentioned), not enough use was made of him in the race and the pace was not decent.

Nevertheless, I think in the circumatances he battled well and just failed. I just think he is much better than his Leopardstown performance and certainly much better than the 11lb he was beaten by.
 
SteveM said:
By Racing Post figures Tatenen ran 17lb worse at Leopardstown than previously at Cheltenham. Apart from not being the same horse that day, for what ever reason (travelling was mentioned), not enough use was made of him in the race and the pace was not decent.
Click to expand...

Sorry Steve can't have that at all. You can't quote selectively from the RP and then ignore their own TS and RPR's. There isn't a shred of evidence to support the view that the pace wasn't decent - quite the opposite. The first four home all ran within 2Ibs on their TS to the RPR. This is normally a pretty good sign of a true pace

Follow The Plan = 152 - 152
Tatenen = 141 - 141
Cooldine = 143 - 144
Made In Taipan = 140 -142

The time was a mere -3.40 secs behind standard, which is pretty good for novice chases. My own figure brings the ground out as 'good' at +0.21 so we aren't talking about lightning fast conditions accounting for this.

I'd be more inclined to think that he was meeting decent ground for the first time this season, having previously run on -5.03 at Aintree (soft to heavy) and -6.30 at Cheltenham (borderline heavy). It might be that this even accounts for his 'travelling' could it be that at this pace on a less forgiving surface he was hurting a bit? Well I wouldn't have thought so myself, but it wouldn't be inconceivable to believe that he wasn't as comfortable on it.

I've got this one down as being a fast time and the winner with his 11.12 has broken (by nearly a length) the grade 1 novice par. The runner up only did so because of the 11.1 he burdened. With 11.7 on his back he'd have failed
 
Last edited:
Warbler said:
Sorry Steve can't have that at all. You can't quote selectively from the RP and then ignore their own TS and RPR's. There isn't a shred of evidence to support the view that the pace was decent - quite the opposite. The first four home all ran within 2Ibs on their TS to the RPR. This is normally a pretty good sign of a true pace

Follow The Plan = 152 - 152
Tatenen = 141 - 141
Cooldine = 143 - 144
Made In Taipan = 140 -142

The time was a mere -3.40 secs behind standard, which is pretty good for novice chases. My own figure brings the ground out as 'good' at +0.21 so we aren't talking about lightning fast conditions accounting for this.

I'd be more inclined to think that he was meeting decent ground for the first time this season, having previously run on -5.03 at Aintree (soft to heavy) and -6.30 at Cheltenham (borderline heavy). It might be that this even accounts for his 'travelling' could it be that at this pace on a less forgiving surface he was hurting a bit? Well I wouldn't have thought so myself, but it wouldn't be inconceivable to believe that he wasn't as comfortable on it.

I've got this one down as being a fast time and the winner with his 11.12 has broken (by nearly a length) the grade 1 novice par. The runner up only did so because of the 11.1 he burdened. With 11.7 on his back he'd have failed
Click to expand...

Well I'm open to suggestions. But by RP figures he has run 17lb wrong. I'm inclined to give him another chance, particularly as his best performance was at Cheltenham and he is the highest rated hurdler in the race.
 
Follow the Plan is catching my eye. I'll forgive him his last run owing to the heavy ground and he is a better horse on good ground. His leopardstown performance with the current Arkle fav is the best run i've seen from a 2mile novice this season. The Arkle is increasingly becoming a race where owing to the pace they go early on,the winner must stay. FTP has won over 2 1/2 m at Gowran so this won't be a problem. The only question mark I have is how his jumping will hold up at Championship level

For the record I have backed FTP & Golden Silver at big enough prices
 
I've just taken some 110 about I'm So Lucky, as potential cover for my ISTB's bet.

It's more likely he will go in the Grand Annual, but were the stable to have a change of mind and allow him to take his chance in the Arkle, no way would he be a three-figure price.
 
Has a horse ever won an Arkle with a career S/R of under 20%?
Click to expand...

Not that figure over the jumps though is it? Hes always looked far more like a chaser in the making so stats like that mean little to me. Stats often mean little to me frankly.....

I believe he looks the part and i like the way he stayed up that hill last time at Cheltenham. Really do believe that that extra bit of stamina can be crucial in these particular races

I cant see how imsinging can be "rock solid" when the stable is clearly far more sweet on the favourite. Its all very well bringing up this rating or that timebollocks, but bloody hard to ignore the views of (pretty reliable and open) connections
 
Clivex, ISTB's has only been beaten once over fences - in open company behind a very smart animal in Briareus. He has also won an open handicap chase off a mark of 147. That, to me, suggests his form chance is rock-solid - insofar as a return to novice company is concerned. He's not a "certainty", he is not a "how-far job" and he's not a "banker". But he is definitely in the mix.

I know you think he is practically beyond reproach, but Nicholls has been known to get it wrong before. There has hardly been an avalanche of support for Tatenen in recent weeks, and it wasn't so very long ago that he thought Free World was going to be his number one hope for the Arkle.

Clearly Mr Nicholls now figures differently - just as he surely will around 2:15pm on Tuesday. ;)
 
I think Nicholls does quite fancy I'msingingtheblues, but would fancy him more at some other tracks.

However, it is interesting that when asked (by the RP) who he would nominate as his best chance at the Festival (with the proviso that odds-on chance Master Minded is taken out) he had no hesitation in naming Tatenen. He said that he thought the Leopardstown running was all wrong, that he had a massive chance and would go very close.

Bearing in mind he has the likes of Kauto and Celestial Halo lining up for him this is a strong word.

The downside is that he is a 5yo without an allowance. Otherwise the stats are very strong for him, being the best ex-hurdler in the line up.

I keep looking at the Irish for this and just can't fancy them.

I have to go with Tatenen AND I'msingingtheblues.
 
You do more backtracking that an Italian tank Spacehopper

I am not at all sure about Tatenan myself and of course he does get it wrong..as does ruby...

But how often? Say, one in six/seven times perhaps? No idea, but its still scarce enough in major races to be a significant factor (if that makes sense)
 
Don't think I've back-tracked at all, clivex - only given context to what "rock solid" meant.

What more do you want me to say? I've acknowledged the stable appear to fancy the other one more. I personally think this is down to concerns about the track, which I think PFN reckons suits Tatenen more than it does ISTB's. This isn't a view that I particularly subscribe to, but I'm prepared to be wrong about it.

What's interesting for me, is that I think ISTB's, by dint of his performances, has more or less forced Nicholls into running him here. I'm sure they would have preferred to wait until Aintree with him, but he has surprised them to such an extent that they pretty much have to run him in the Arkle - just in case they are wrong about the track.

I don't think Nicholls quite knows what he has in ISTB's.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top