AW Winter 2016/17

davidjohnson said:
4/1 didn't look absurd given how he has shaped on occasions. So inclined to press up! Buckle up and hope!
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Nothing worse than having that sinking feeling that your main bet of the day is beaten before it runs!
I've actually cashed out my original stake on 365 at the loss of €10 and backed it on the machine to 1/3 of my original stake for a greater profit now.
*Update* He's out to 23 on the machine now!!!! Somebody knows something :(
 
These racing markets get hookier and stranger the more I look.... Zanjabeel there in the last at Dundalk. Another Elliott horse on the flat. Drifts like Tom Hanks in Castaway all evening from 4/1 out to 20/1 + on the machine. Indentical to Captain K earlier! As soon as race goes in running, hits 60/1 almost immediately, for no obvious reason... Yet just gets touched off by a Joseph O'Brien plot job. Sorry about the rant, but these EXTREME market drifts on the Exchange are so dodgey it's incredible!
 
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davidjohnson said:
Grendisar looks a pretty opposable favourite in the Quebec Stakes at 2.00 at Lingfield tomorrow. He's the obvious pick on ratings - but thay was also the case on his return from a break last time, but he didn't have that finishing kick that was seen to such good effect last winter/spring. He had looked to have turned over a new leaf, but historically he's a horse that hasn't always found winning easy and he makes for one to take on at 6/4. Battalion looked good last time, but is another who is likely to be held up, and in truth, is a bit of a dog. He'll presuambly be ridden the same as last time, where things opened up nicely on the inside for him - but I'm concerned both he and Grendisar could end up getting too far back. Can make a case for Educate on ratings, and he'll get the run of things, but maybe Dubai Fashion can improve past him and get first run on the other 2. She has looked a natural on synthetics, and should be 2 from 2 on it - Hanagan had a mare on her at Newcastle. She doesn't have much to find but this could pan out well for her I reckon.
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With you, DJ.
The way she travelled at Newcastle suggests she'll be suited much better by this sharp 10f than either Newcastle or Donny.
 
davidjohnson said:
Grendisar looks a pretty opposable favourite in the Quebec Stakes at 2.00 at Lingfield tomorrow. He's the obvious pick on ratings - but thay was also the case on his return from a break last time, but he didn't have that finishing kick that was seen to such good effect last winter/spring. He had looked to have turned over a new leaf, but historically he's a horse that hasn't always found winning easy and he makes for one to take on at 6/4. Battalion looked good last time, but is another who is likely to be held up, and in truth, is a bit of a dog. He'll presuambly be ridden the same as last time, where things opened up nicely on the inside for him - but I'm concerned both he and Grendisar could end up getting too far back. Can make a case for Educate on ratings, and he'll get the run of things, but maybe Dubai Fashion can improve past him and get first run on the other 2. She has looked a natural on synthetics, and should be 2 from 2 on it - Hanagan had a mare on her at Newcastle. She doesn't have much to find but this could pan out well for her I reckon.
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Tough luck, DJ - turned into a sprint finish, and the winner was best placed to take advantage.
 
Already posted on AC's thread, but David O'Meara clearly thinks a lot of Mythical Madness (3.45) and the 3lb rise shouldn't stop him repeating his cosy c/d win latest.
 
Nice race at Deauville tomorrow (1:35) Any opinions or fancies? Several British trainers send their horses over, including Mick Channon with last time out scorer, Volunteer Point. She'll do for me.
 
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Have taken the 9/2 about Dusty Bin (1.15)- Finished well against a decent type for the grade latest, and ought to find more for the step up in trip. Unproven on the surface. but handled soft well on the flat and the price looks generous.
 
Oak Bluffs - 3:50 Newcastle @ 9/1

The handicapper has started to ease him in the weights & a mark of 59 would seem reasonable to see him make a bold bid tomorrow, coupled with the step up to a mile.
 
Mentioned Devious Spirit (2.50 Newcastle, Fri) on this thread earlier and willing to give him another chance at double figures. The case for him is no different to what is was the time before - career-low mark, shaped well the time before and he's a lot bigger price now because he disappointed last time. This looks a warm race, Taopix, Galilee Chapel and Thello are all in excellent heart, but if on his best game, Devious Spirit can get among them.

Earlier on the card Poyle Vinnie looks worth chancing in the 1.20. Another who is down to a good mark and I thought he ran really well over 5f at this track last time. He might well have even won had he not been carried to his left by the runner-up. Again it's a race where you can soon find dangers, but from this sort of mark, only a matter of time I think until Poyle Vinnie is winning races again.
 
Good luck guys, following you in on Devious Spirit and Oak Bluffs, looking at form and weights you talk good sense. I'm taking you on in the 1320 though David. 6 years old is late to be hitting the all weather for the first time, Tatlisu is on the decline this year and an opening mark of 85 looks fair enough. First run over course and distance was fair and off the same mark am hoping it will improve.
 
Georgian Bay - 2:05 Ling @ 14/1

Went in the notebook last time out. Has dropped to a feasible mark now & is only 1lb higher than when winning the valuable London Hcap at Kempton last year.
 
NEWMARKET WARRIOR - (Newcastle, 15:35) @ 7/1

Super run over C&D after a 168 day break, when beaten neck in to second. Runs off the same mark & should strip fitter for that spin.
 
Siege of Boston 6:15 Wolves tonight. Absolutely no form whatsoever, but I always keep an eye on G Elliott flat entries. This horse has been entered twice at Wolves and twice at Dundalk since beginning of December, but has never run. He's been pulled 3 times and didn't get in as a reserve the other. Looks like he finally runs (first time on AW) Tonight and at 16/1 with 9 runners I'm taking an each way punt.

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With a kinder draw and a more experienced pilot up, Bold Prediction (2.00) might last home better than he did against My Target latest.
 
Daydream - 1:55 Kempton @ 25/1

Has changed stables & gone to Tony Newcombe a trainer i respect who does well with lowly rated horses. She's shown good early speed over 7f & a mile previously where finishing a good 2nd & 3rd off marks of higher marks & 6f should be more to her liking. She looks a cracking bet at these odds E/W
 
Chupalla (3.05) blew away a decent field on her debut (race has produced 5 winners subsquently) and ran too free returning from a break latest. Today's sharp 5 looks right up her alley and the market indicates she means business.
 
Hopefully see Kasbah get that head in front tomorrow (Lingfield 2:35).
 
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reet hard said:
Chupalla (3.05) blew away a decent field on her debut (race has produced 5 winners subsquently) and ran too free returning from a break latest. Today's sharp 5 looks right up her alley and the market indicates she means business.
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The drift on this was telling. Pulled up like one that had gone wrong.
 
Nice one. Marb.

Rayzin' Hell (3.10) is too big at 8/1.Up just 2lbs for winning a good race latest, is well drawn and 7 from 14 on this surface.
 
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