Batfair Hurdle

EC1 said:
i might be wrong but when MAS won the CH he actually won a novice race in the same season mixed in with his handicap hurdle wins...not many horses like him..not many can make the running in top races and keep going..one of my all time favs
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I hated the bastid can't remember what I backed but it wasn't him........did Pipe also run Granville Again in that race or was that another time?
 
i can't remeber now..but i was mad on the horse..backed him on most of his runs that season..[yes i know you would get slaughtered for that DO:)]...just loved his hurdling technique

they dropped him to novice level in one race..it was unreal watching him against novices...i'll have to google it
 
I think Celtic Thingy also came through the h'cap route prior to the CH. As did Rooster Booster :) although arguably not in the same season.

Yes, Tanlic, I think I more or less implied that I was assuming a fair number of things but we all do at different times.

For example, if AOB had five still entered in the Derby in May, on ratings of 115, 113, 110, 105 and 100 and only the last one turned up in the race, I think most people would assume the horse was his best hope and would back it accordingly.

· I'm assuming NJH knows exactly what kind of horse wins the Batfair
· I'm assuming he knows how well handicapped it needs to be to be competitive let alone win
· I'm assuming he has a fair handle on SOAV's ability
· I'm assuming he wouldn't have mentioned the Ladbroke if he didn't think he was a possible contender for that
· I'm assuming he wouldn't be worried about winning the Ladbroke in terms of how it might affect his rating
· I'm assuming he doesn't worry about his rating because he knows he has a horse that is better than a handicapper anyway
· if Geraghty sticks with him when the decs are made I'll assume he thinks it's his best hope

If I'm right about all those assumptions...
 
it won't win the ground DO.

respect to you for calling by its new.. lot better ..name:)

they should have called it this in the 70's...they would never have changed it
 
I have genuine concerns about the ground, EC1. I might be tempted to lay off the ante-post bet if it shortens up a bit but I also just wonder if things weren't quite as they were reported at kempton (regarding SOAV, rather than the ground).

After that race I PMd Tanlic to ask his opinion and offered mine:

Geraghty was very happy with the way the race was going and to my eyes the horse travelled beautifully in the ground, but Walsh stole five lengths on Faugheen going into the home turn without appearing to ask the horse a question and Bazza thought 'fvck it, I'll wait for the Batfair' and eased off.
 
after watching kempton..and i did like the horse..i mentioned immediately on here after ascot ...was it a CH contender?..i couldn't possibly bet it on anything but good ground

i think it will be a sticky mess saturday

nice mention of the name again by the way:)
 
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Incidentally, whaur the fvck did the Newbury snow come from? I've been keeping an eye on the weather and forecast for days now and there's been no mention of snow in the area! The forecast for the week is dry and bright. I'd have thought we'd have been looking at good ground by the weekend.
 
Tanlic said:
Evan Williams stated himself he wouldn't want the ground to be too soft for another race he was entered in and would wait for the Betfair if he thought it was unsuitable,,,,,,,I assume he will be thinking the same way about this race.
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Fair enough but I wouldn't necessarily assume the same applies here [emoji6]


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Here's food for thought

Nicky Henderson came forward and said after Ascot and said " Our horse should have finished 2nd in that" but.....Bla bla bla and BG, I guarantee you, said it was because he couldn't get his feet out of that ground..it was very tacky.

If they are right and SOAV (50) should have finished 2nd in front of Purple Bay (61) then off 149 he has 12lbs up his sleeve and should be carrying about 12st8lbs on Saturday.
 
I don't think I'm disagreeing with you here, Tanlic.

I have Purple Bay pretty much where his OR is. (Grasshopper disagrees big-style.) Check out that form in the race won by Thomas Edison. It's extraordinarily strong. I can see it throwing up some big performances at the festival.

Taking Hendo at his word, SOAV is at least 161 and I suspect the trainer is being a touch coy. What if by 'he should have finished second' he really means 'a short-head second and only because SOAV was only half-fit'? :p
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't think I'm disagreeing with you here, Tanlic.

I have Purple Bay pretty much where his OR is. (Grasshopper disagrees big-style.) Check out that form in the race won by Thomas Edison. It's extraordinarily strong. I can see it throwing up some big performances at the festival.

Taking Hendo at his word, SOAV is at least 161 and I suspect the trainer is being a touch coy. What if by 'he should have finished second' he really means 'a short-head second and only because SOAV was only half-fit'? :p
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What Nicky also said was "he just didn't get home, after travelling well" (owing to the soft ground) which paints rather a different picture to the one you're trying to create here.
If he didn't see it out at Kempton (albeit off a strong pace) what earthly chance has he at a stiffer Newbury, on likely softer ground and conceding weight all round?
 
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I could see myself having a little bet on Goodwodd Mirage if he goes. The Jonjo o Neill factor..................Jonjo has done well in this race in past years, GMOOH would have won it twice were it not for the fall of Darlan imo.....

Imo Sign Of A Victory struck me as a neat, nimble, and slick type of horse at Ascot, DO.
That's my personaly worry with him here, as chances are this race will get rough and messy at some point with a big field.
 
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reet hard said:
What Nicky also said was "he just didn't get home, after travelling well" (owing to the soft ground) which paints rather a different picture to the one you're trying to create here.
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I'm not really trying to create a picture. Just trying engage in a bit of banter with Tanlic. Is your quote a direct one? Can I ask for the source?


reet hard said:
If he didn't see it out at Kempton (albeit off a strong pace) what earthly chance has he at a stiffer Newbury, on likely softer ground and conceding weight all round?
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I'm not sure the 2m110y trip at Newbury can be any stiffer than the same trip at Ascot, and that trip would be stiffer than the 2m round Kempton. The Ascot race was a decent-sized field valuable handicap run at a strong pace with that uphill finish and he had no bother with it. Geraghty was still trying to restrain him at the last.

The weight doesn't concern me. It seldom does. It's how well handicapped he is.

The soft ground is definitely more of a worry. I'm hoping they take the covers off with higher temperatures forecast.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm not really trying to create a picture. Just trying engage in a bit of banter with Tanlic. Is your quote a direct one? Can I ask for the source?




I'm not sure the 2m110y trip at Newbury can be any stiffer than the same trip at Ascot, and that trip would be stiffer than the 2m round Kempton. The Ascot race was a decent-sized field valuable handicap run at a strong pace with that uphill finish and he had no bother with it. Geraghty was still trying to restrain him at the last.

The weight doesn't concern me. It seldom does. It's how well handicapped he is.

The soft ground is definitely more of a worry. I'm hoping they take the covers off with higher temperatures forecast.
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The quote, in full (from RP):
The trainer, who most recently won the Betfair Hurdle two years ago with My Tent Or Yours, said: "Sign Of A Victory is a better horse on good ground but we're pretty keen on running him in the Betfair Hurdle as there is nothing else before Cheltenham and what is he going to run in at Cheltenham?

"I cannot believe you saw him at his very best at Kempton - he wasn't going to beat the winner Faugheen in a million years but he should have been second.

"He just didn't get home after travelling well. I know it was soft but I think he can be a bit sharper than that. He is getting stronger and more able to cope with soft ground.

"He would have to run an incredible race in the Betfair Hurdle to go for the Champion Hurdle.

His Ascot win came on faster ground (6.2 secs below standard), against lesser opposition and a stone lighter in the saddle, where he beat 2 horses who need further - for speed.
Dress it up however you like, that's not the kind of test he'll face on Saturday.
 
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Thanks, Reet, appreciated.

He's covered a few bases there, hasn't he? I also note he said:

"He just didn't get home after travelling well. I know it was soft but I think he can be a bit sharper than that. He is getting stronger and more able to cope with soft ground.
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Sounds to me like he might also be saying he wasn't 100% fit and if they're not they aren't going to finish their race, especially in that ground.

I'm not sure the likes of the Ladbroke or this race should be the right target for a horse with ground limitations either, which is why I suspect they do believe they have a CH contender. Look at how he has been campaigned compared with the stable's other good handicappers.

There was a big mention on here for Hammersley Lake ahead of the Greatwood and he has run well in other decent races.

Yes, I suppose I am dressing it all up a bit but that's as much for the sake of keeping the debate going as anything else.
 
You wont listen will you?

I found this hidden away in some remote website just now "Ascot Saturday Sign of a Victory owner spoke to Nicky on Saturday evening and Barry (Geraghty) had told him that the ground was dead and tacky, which wouldn’t have suited him at all"
 
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Venetia Williams has said both ASO and Baradari which is good news having backed Aso at an average of 39 on the machine.

Baradari is slightly preferred in the betting which concerns me slightly but que sera.

Nicky Henderson's latest quotes since mad cow's disease set in.

"I think Sign of a Victory will win if the others don't go too fast for him"

"The horse is in great nick so one of the lads from the yard told me"

"I used to get Gin and Schweppes tonic free the race isn't what it used to be"

"I love the course you get a great view from the top of Cleeve hill"

" I think if Sign of A Victory runs well in the Schweppes on Saturday we'll go straight for the Betfair Hurdle after that"

:cool:
 
Snake Eyes misses out on Saturday's Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, with Lightentertainment last to make the cut
 
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