Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Nice to see him left in at the 5-Days, but any word on whether WPM intends to run Lucky Bridle?
Batfair Hurdle
- Thread starter Grasshopper
- Start date
EC1
On a break
i've not yet put the race under the eye glass DO..i just spotted it and it looks in hand of mark..and Skelton won a big hurdle with a similar type last year..can't remember the race.... will get stuck in when there is a few less to juggle
EC1
On a break
yes that was the one
well you wouldn't think so would you..will have to have good look at this race
well you wouldn't think so would you..will have to have good look at this race
Not after seeing Silver Birch win the National, he wouldn't want to go through anything like that again!
EC1
On a break
its a fair point..but stranger things etc
M
marbler
Guest
I liked Blair Perrone but he'll probably run at Leopardstown after he was taken out today. That might be a bet for me in Deliotte.
I'll be looking to have savers on my original fancy Hawk High, and Ebony Express who will be off 10 stone or thereabouts, improved a stone for that shrewdie George Swinbank on the flat in the summer, and shown ability in novice hurdles when winning his first two quite well. He could out run his odds first time in a handicap.
I could see myself backing three or four horses in this!
I'll be looking to have savers on my original fancy Hawk High, and Ebony Express who will be off 10 stone or thereabouts, improved a stone for that shrewdie George Swinbank on the flat in the summer, and shown ability in novice hurdles when winning his first two quite well. He could out run his odds first time in a handicap.
I could see myself backing three or four horses in this!
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Aug 2, 2005
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Started the Flat season on 84, finished it on 78?
M
marbler
Guest
Lol fair point I meant he started off 66 in 2013 and is now 82, a stone improvement all the same albeit over an extra season but a bigger worry is the last run where he underperformed. Hopefully that was just to get his mark down!
He does strike me as one of these three novice/maiden hurdles types to run a big race first time in a handicap although it would be some coup to pull it off in a race like this........Martin Pipe used to farm these types back in the day.
He does strike me as one of these three novice/maiden hurdles types to run a big race first time in a handicap although it would be some coup to pull it off in a race like this........Martin Pipe used to farm these types back in the day.
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BennyB
Senior Jockey
Also keen on Fascino Rustico for this. Lost his confidence after falling last season but looks a different beast this term. Why Nicholls let him go I'm not sure - maybe the owner's call I suppose.
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I've seen nothing to change my mind from my original fancies for this.
Nicky Henderson loves the race and probably has has had it in mind for Sign of a Victory since before he hacked up on the course by 6 lengths.
The plan: Get him 100% fit early on and see what he has to offer...only problem was that he didn't just win he hacked up
Nicky Henderson must have been surprised at how easy he won while Barry Geraghty proclaimed he wasn't as good as he looked unfortunately the handicapper saw it differently and hit him with a 150 while runner up got away with a 2 lb rise despite being beaten by only 1/2 length.
The fact the 2nd and 3rd have won since tells us very little Dalawan would definitely have needed the run and further and there must be a good chance Baradari was not anywhere near race fit as those behind him were a choice lot who haven't won a race between them since.
They then decide to take on Faugheen to find out just how good he is and fully expect he will finish 2nd but he absolutely hated the ground which was like glue to the horse. Apparently it was drying out and became very tacky. So really they go there on Saturday none the wiser.
He was dropped to 149 for that lacklustre performance but he may not even be that good.
Talk of the Champion Hurdle came about for that performance at Ascot but that idea has been pushed to the back of the trainers mind who stated he'd have to win the Betfair on the bridle before he would consider running him.
I have had a few quid on Sign of a Victory but only because this has always been his target and the fact he's trained by Nicky Henderson. I've seen nothing to make me think he's a good thing for the race.
With Newbury being the best galloping track in the country a strong pace is usually the flavour of the day in the Betfair and one thing you have to do is stay or like MTOY you travel like a dream and stamina doesn't become an issue.
With no MTOY in the race one that fits the bill is Evan Williams ON TOUR if the ground stays good to soft he'll most likely run in the race and for me he will take some beating. He's started to be nibbled at in the market but the worry is if it becomes too soft his trainer will pull the plug and go straight to Cheltenham.. One of On Tour's rare losses was against Sign of a Victory but he was trying to give him 8lbs that day. Now the shoe is on the other foot and Sign of a Victory has to give him 10lbs. He has never been out of the first 3 for his trainer and has won 5 from 8 and may just be thrown in here.
My other fancy ASO who I have already backed for small money at a big price. The worry is he picked up a 5lb penalty and is set to carry 11st6bs which seems a lot of weight to me for a novice. Not a whisper on whether VW will run him or not and I suppose he might miss the race and wait until the Festival. His best form is on very soft which he's unlikely to get at the Festival so I am hoping he goes here.
Which horses will actually run remains to be seen but as things stand On Tour will be my main bet if in the words of Jimmy Rabbit "the fooker turns up"
Nicky Henderson loves the race and probably has has had it in mind for Sign of a Victory since before he hacked up on the course by 6 lengths.
The plan: Get him 100% fit early on and see what he has to offer...only problem was that he didn't just win he hacked up
Nicky Henderson must have been surprised at how easy he won while Barry Geraghty proclaimed he wasn't as good as he looked unfortunately the handicapper saw it differently and hit him with a 150 while runner up got away with a 2 lb rise despite being beaten by only 1/2 length.
The fact the 2nd and 3rd have won since tells us very little Dalawan would definitely have needed the run and further and there must be a good chance Baradari was not anywhere near race fit as those behind him were a choice lot who haven't won a race between them since.
They then decide to take on Faugheen to find out just how good he is and fully expect he will finish 2nd but he absolutely hated the ground which was like glue to the horse. Apparently it was drying out and became very tacky. So really they go there on Saturday none the wiser.
He was dropped to 149 for that lacklustre performance but he may not even be that good.
Talk of the Champion Hurdle came about for that performance at Ascot but that idea has been pushed to the back of the trainers mind who stated he'd have to win the Betfair on the bridle before he would consider running him.
I have had a few quid on Sign of a Victory but only because this has always been his target and the fact he's trained by Nicky Henderson. I've seen nothing to make me think he's a good thing for the race.
With Newbury being the best galloping track in the country a strong pace is usually the flavour of the day in the Betfair and one thing you have to do is stay or like MTOY you travel like a dream and stamina doesn't become an issue.
With no MTOY in the race one that fits the bill is Evan Williams ON TOUR if the ground stays good to soft he'll most likely run in the race and for me he will take some beating. He's started to be nibbled at in the market but the worry is if it becomes too soft his trainer will pull the plug and go straight to Cheltenham.. One of On Tour's rare losses was against Sign of a Victory but he was trying to give him 8lbs that day. Now the shoe is on the other foot and Sign of a Victory has to give him 10lbs. He has never been out of the first 3 for his trainer and has won 5 from 8 and may just be thrown in here.
My other fancy ASO who I have already backed for small money at a big price. The worry is he picked up a 5lb penalty and is set to carry 11st6bs which seems a lot of weight to me for a novice. Not a whisper on whether VW will run him or not and I suppose he might miss the race and wait until the Festival. His best form is on very soft which he's unlikely to get at the Festival so I am hoping he goes here.
Which horses will actually run remains to be seen but as things stand On Tour will be my main bet if in the words of Jimmy Rabbit "the fooker turns up"
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Or it could be because fat bastid told John Hales he was a good thing at Wincanton and he finished tailed off :lol:
He actually sent 2 horses to Dan Skelton from Nicholls yard, they are friends aren't they? Most likely PN needed the room.
Dan Skelton apparently has a great team of people working with him, nicked one of Jonjo's best girls the charming gigolo,
He's got some strike rate for a new trainer and has nearly as many owners as he has horses........No BIG winners yet but it's only a a matter of time.
He'd be my tip for the top one day. Wouldn't surprise me if he pulled it off with Fascino Rustico but you can't back em all
Excuses like his stirrup leather broke, and had to be ridden without irons when an unlucky 4th in the Triumph?
He's likely been missing for the wind op his trainer had been contemplating before the Tiger Roll race - where he travelled like much the best horse, but reportedly choked under pressure - and has the look of a very well handicapped horse because of it.
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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- Nov 14, 2006
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In the expectation that Lucky Bridle doesn't run, I have backed Amore Alato.....though with not a huge amount of confidence, it has to be said.
Nick Wiliams is a handler I have a lot of time for, and this one looks like it has been laid-out for the race. A mark of 140 doesn't look like too much of a violation, based on his proximity to Irving three runs back, and his two outings since have seen his acquit himself with a degree of credit under stopping-weights. With Lizzie Kelly knocking a half-stone off the burden on Saturday, I'll take my each-way chances with this one, at 33/1 with the Magic Sign.
Nick Wiliams is a handler I have a lot of time for, and this one looks like it has been laid-out for the race. A mark of 140 doesn't look like too much of a violation, based on his proximity to Irving three runs back, and his two outings since have seen his acquit himself with a degree of credit under stopping-weights. With Lizzie Kelly knocking a half-stone off the burden on Saturday, I'll take my each-way chances with this one, at 33/1 with the Magic Sign.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Aug 2, 2005
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- 25,040
Tanlic, I have great respect for your views in particular when you mention NJH horses as your input gives the impression you have a line to the yard but I just can't agree with your evaluation of the Ascot race won by SOAV.
It's the first big handicap hurdle of the season proper and is always very competitive.
I can go along with the idea of Dawalan proving better suited by the subsequent steps up in trip he's subsequently made but he was off for his life that day too, as was Baradari. Venetia Williams doesn't send them to these big Saturday races half-cooked.
You say nothing else behind has won. Next time out Kilcooley, trying to give weight, was second to SOAV's very highly regarded stablemate L'Ami Serge and then bolted up by 23 lengths at Haydock? I'm not saying we should take those form lines literally but they're hardly negative.
Not far behind Kilcooley in both the Ascot and Newbury races was Violet Dancer, beaten a short-head in a £20k handicap at Kempton next time out.
Again, I'm not saying we should take those form lines literally but they're hardly negatives either.
Henderson immediately nominated 'a race like the Ladbroke' for him after that win. The most competitive handicap hurdle of the season at that stage. You don't target that race unless you think you have a well handicapped animal on your hands. The ground went against him so they targeted this, or maybe they thought both would be possible.
You know what I think about the Faugheen race.
Another angle is to consider what else Henderson had in the race and why he isn't sending them for this. Are they all just worse handicapped?
I rather suspect if they really thought SOAV wasn't up to being competitive in the Champion Hurdle they would have taken him out of that race by now.
I don't have SOAV anywhere near the top of my ratings but he would still be my idea of the most likely winner if he is as good as I think he might be.
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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He also has some ex Nicholls' girls working for him, there was nothing sinister about Hales having a couple up there with him, he was merely offering his support to help get him started and FR was still a novice having fallen in two of his last three races in the previous season.
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On Tour has been winning over longer trips, including on soft (if anything coming from Haydock is to be believed) so not sure I see why soft ground here is a reason to pull him but I'm probably missing something
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EC1
On a break
the going at Newbury isn't going to be any better than Kempton..its currently g/s soft..it won't dry out much so why is SOAV going to run any better than at kempton?..particularly carrying top weight..he is surely a massive negative for the race
at Ascot it was true good ground when he won..Kempton was only GS at worst..if that..its going to be slower on Saturday..not seeing how its got a great chance at all.
will it suddenly act on slow ground?
at Ascot it was true good ground when he won..Kempton was only GS at worst..if that..its going to be slower on Saturday..not seeing how its got a great chance at all.
will it suddenly act on slow ground?
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Evan Williams stated himself he wouldn't want the ground to be too soft for another race he was entered in and would wait for the Betfair if he thought it was unsuitable,,,,,,,I assume he will be thinking the same way about this race.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Sorry I missed Kilkooley but he was so far back it makes no difference. I think Make a Stand won that race but it's not known as stepping stone to winning a Champion Hurdle.
You are being very assumptive on a couple of things though.
First of you assume just because VW generally doesn't send horses to big races needing racing does not means she never does it. I wish I had 10 quid for every time a trainer tried to get a horse spot on but the horse didn't show the right signs but as they had entered him they ran him anyway. He looked to me like he needed it when he seemed to blow up between the last 2....but what does it matter? It still a million miles away from CH form.
The other point is Nicky Henderson has only a vague idea if SOAV is good enough to be running in a champion hurdle never mind winning one.
He works like a good horse but dozens do at Seven Barrows. He has won novice sand handicaps like a good horse but he has never ran against any horse who would even run in a CH apart from Faugheen and that ended in disaster giving them even less of a clue.
Punjabi was 2nd carrying 11st5lb this race but to a man at Seven Barrows not one of them thought he'd beat Binocular and he'd beaten a Champion Hurdler twice before winning it and would have beaten Harchibald had he not fallen.
He simply hasn't had the opportunity to prove himself and NJH said himself if he is going to be good enough to run in the Champion Hurdle he'd have win the Betfair convincingly.
Of course he's going to keep him in the Champion Hurdle until he's sure one way or the other he'd be a mug not too because he's the only possible chance he's got of winning it, at least nothing that is entered.......that doesn't mean he's convinced he's good enough.hopefully he will be but right now that is all they have is hope.
I did say he may not be that good 149, not he isn't that good bc I don't know . Many have won the Betfair but few winners in recent years even run in Champion Hurdles let alone win one.........Make a Stand did it but you need to go back a long way to find another and way back then Champion Hurdlers ran is handicaps all the time unlike today.
EC1
On a break
i might be wrong but when MAS won the CH he actually won a novice race in the same season mixed in with his handicap hurdle wins...not many horses like him..not many can make the running in top races and keep going..one of my all time favs
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
As yet i have no firm opinion on this race, although my starting point will probably be with the top weight, but then he is ground dependant, so I wouldn't be rushing in to back him just yet either.
EC1
On a break
the ground is key really Tiggers..they have had snow at Newbury overnight and ground is covered..its not exactly drying weather so it has to be g/s minimum
you can't see it being good by any stretch of imagination
when ground is covered at this time of year..once the covers come up..as at Cheltenham that time..the ground tends to be gluey
you can't see it being good by any stretch of imagination
when ground is covered at this time of year..once the covers come up..as at Cheltenham that time..the ground tends to be gluey
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
The ground at Kempton was going from good to soft to good (drying out) it was tacky as hell, at least for him and the horse couldn't handle it at all, according to BG...could hardly pull his feet out of it and that is why he virtually pulled him up.
Remember Alberta's Run? he ran well on Good to soft heading towards soft but going from good to soft towards good he was useless on it. Some horses are like that and it appears SOAV is one of them or BG is telling porky pies.
I wouldn't be worried at all about the ground at Newbury for him at all.
EC1
On a break
i would re the reason in the post above you Tanlic..i think it will be a bit gluey by being covered..then exposed when covers come up
the ground at ascot was in comparison fast at side of Kempton..obviously good in reality..but quite different to Kempton or what we will get at Newbury..then you have the weight to consider
is he a big horse Tanlic?.ie weight might not be such an issue
the ground at ascot was in comparison fast at side of Kempton..obviously good in reality..but quite different to Kempton or what we will get at Newbury..then you have the weight to consider
is he a big horse Tanlic?.ie weight might not be such an issue
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