Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 16th Ascot

Desert Orchid said:
Struck my second bet in the race this evening: Mont Des Avaloirs ew 33/1 4 pl.

This one looked all over the Tolworth winner for a long way last season but maybe did a wee bit too much out in front. I think he's been trained for this since that day. Summerville Boy won it before taking the Supreme and going up to 156 for that. Second was Kalashnikov who went on to win this (went up to 154 for it) and run second to Summerville Boy in the Supreme. MDA was third. Fourth was Western Ryder who had gone up to 150 by the time he ran at the weekend there.

Like I say, MDA looked the best horse in the field that day to me and I'm happy to take the chance that my interpretation of his subsequent form is correct. If I'm right in believing he is a 160+ horse running off 142 he will be very hard to beat. Also, if Cobden rides he might end up a gamble.
Click to expand...

I like this line of thinking Maurice. Taking strict formlines through Ballymoy I can easily believe him in the low to mid-150's and corroborate it elsewhere, but I've since watched the Sandown race and whilst I think your assessment is a touch high I don't entirely disagree and could make a case for him to possibly be a high 150 horse. If that's the case he could potentially have somewhere around 16lbs in hand, which in most years, given a clean race and no jumping issues would be good enough to win.

I've followed you in at the same price, and if doesn't show up or runs a low key race I'll be all over him at Cheltenham or Aintree.
 
Yes, Maruco, I was trying to imply that the ratings of Summerville Boy and Kalashnikov, if mid-150s last season, could well be mid-160s this season in the same way that Western Ryder has improved this season (probably a wee bit less than I'd have anticipated), so Kalshnikov could have been a 160 hurdler had he stayed over the smaller obstacles. I backed Summerville Boy in the Fighting Fifth in the belief he was a 160+ hurdler and in the hope BDA wasn't fit. I think MDA could be in the same ball-park in terms of raw ability.
 
Plan.b123 said:
Hi m8,just wanted 2 give you a bit of info i recieved from another forum.That im a member of.Theres a guy on there who gives out some really good info,and is 100% genuine.He as advised 2 get stuck into leoncavello,he states there wiĺl be a big gamble on this horse,and its been plotted up for the race.At the end of the day its the betfair hurdle,really hard race 2 win.but just thought would let u know as u fancy it.
Click to expand...

I backed him earlier today.
 
Fingers crossed m8,hopefully set me up nice for the festival.ive had a reasonable e.way bet.and will go in again if the gamble materializes.
 
Good man, DG. The updated list must have come online at some point soon after my post since I put it up straight away after visiting the RP site and not seeing it although it did take me a couple of minutes to check it against my document for the previous forfeit stage.

Still not good enough from the RP, though. The card should have been up well before lunch.

Happy to see both my bets (Saglawy and Mont Des Avaloirs) still there though. That's a result in itself the way my luck is just now.

Saglaway (took 25s) still 25/1 in a place but generally shorter.

MDA (took 33/1) now best 16/1.
 
Last edited:
To be fair, I think that 5 day confirmations will have the same deadline as standard entries for the other races which I presume is still noon. It tends to take an hour or so to hit the media.
 
A few of you mentioned Ch'tibello on the Non-Triers thread. Into 20's now. Any thoughts?

I'm on Leoncavallo at 20's. Sticking with him.
 
Last edited:
Saglaway (took 25s) still 25/1 in a place but generally shorter.

MDA (took 33/1) now best 16/1.[/QUOTE]

I've joined you on MDA Des,your 33s looks very good now.good luck.
 
I don't know how significant or otherwise it is at this stage but the exchange prices would have me worried about Didtheyleaveyououttoo, Ballyandy and Zanza.
 
There doesn't seem to be a lot of rain in the forecast between now and Saturday hopefully the ground will dry out a bit.

It would be quite good not to have a slog in a bog.
 
Desert Orchid said:
There doesn't seem to be a lot of rain in the forecast between now and Saturday hopefully the ground will dry out a bit.

It would be quite good not to have a slog in a bog.
Click to expand...

Met Office forecast for Newbury racecourse showing rain tonight then dry Wednesday and Thursday with heavy rain on Friday


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Fair play to TheDarkKnight, and his counterparts at Corals. Unlike a few years ago, when most bookies would simply mirror other bookies, they actually went 20/1 on Leoncavallo until earlier today.

Dave Ord from The Sporting Life reckons his best form is on better ground, but I don't know. I'll just settle to see his name in those final confirmations. He's won a few minor races on good ground a while ago, but placed at Galway on the soft.
Maybe Gd-St would be ideal.
 
Last edited:
viking said:
Met Office forecast for Newbury racecourse showing rain tonight then dry Wednesday and Thursday with heavy rain on Friday


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Forecast now showing rain tonight continuing into tomorrow morning. Heavy rain on Friday still and some rain Saturday afternoon.

The slog in a bog might be happening


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
My latest thoughts, which I might get the chance to update on Saturday morning:

BETFAIR HURDLE (HANDICAP) (GRADE 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £87,219 23 runners 2m69y ITV4
[TABLE="width: 1002"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Stats
[/TD]
[TD]Days
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]TS
[/TD]
[TD]MON
(167+)
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 22
[/TD]
[TD]-26572
[/TD]
[TD] Magic Dancer
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 28
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]136
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD]? p?
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD]3-9533
[/TD]
[TD] Saglawy
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 43
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]11-12
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]123
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD]0-5692
[/TD]
[TD] Ch'tibello
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 63
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-9
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]146
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD]d? (166oed) [179?]
[/TD]
[TD]154
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]5222
[/TD]
[TD] Nordic Combined
[/TD]
[TD]bf
[/TD]
[TD] 26
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[TD]148
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD]0-9311
[/TD]
[TD] Ar Mest
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD] 24
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]10-3 5ex
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]126
[/TD]
[TD]108
[/TD]
[TD]166
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]156
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD]/6-132
[/TD]
[TD] Leoncavallo
[/TD]
[TD]D bf
[/TD]
[TD] 145
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-7
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Charlie Hammond
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]128
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]+ p?
[/TD]
[TD]154
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD]6-4112
[/TD]
[TD] Getaway Trump
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 42
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-5
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Cobden
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD]14-111
[/TD]
[TD] Al Dancer
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 57
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Sam Twiston-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]141
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 12
[/TD]
[TD]1P-230
[/TD]
[TD] Distingo
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 44 (31F)
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Joshua Moore
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 16
[/TD]
[TD]452103
[/TD]
[TD] High Expectations
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 44
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]P-3P41
[/TD]
[TD] Ballyandy
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-10 5ex
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[TD][169]
[/TD]
[TD]156
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD]3F-122
[/TD]
[TD] Lisp
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 49
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]11-8
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]140
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD]14-230
[/TD]
[TD] Mont Des Avaloirs
[/TD]
[TD]D bf
[/TD]
[TD] 49
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-5
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Lorcan Williams
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]138
[/TD]
[TD](163)
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]154
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD]11-232
[/TD]
[TD] Blu Cavalier
[/TD]
[TD]D bf
[/TD]
[TD] 39
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-3
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Andrew Tinkler
[/TD]
[TD]140
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[TD]? y
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD]10-115
[/TD]
[TD] Didtheyleaveuoutto
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 45
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-2
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 17
[/TD]
[TD]80-011
[/TD]
[TD] William H Bonney
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 62
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD]134
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[TD](163+? p?)
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 11
[/TD]
[TD]27-901
[/TD]
[TD] Sussex Ranger
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 45
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]10-13
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Jamie Moore
[/TD]
[TD]136
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]+ (165d)
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 13
[/TD]
[TD]6181
[/TD]
[TD] Zanza
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 41
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]120
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]? p? +?
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 15
[/TD]
[TD]/2115-
[/TD]
[TD] Countister
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 331
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 18
[/TD]
[TD]3-3U11
[/TD]
[TD] Monsieur Lecoq
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 35
[/TD]
[TD]5
[/TD]
[TD]10-9
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Lizzie Kelly
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]128
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 20
[/TD]
[TD]-56013
[/TD]
[TD] West To The Bridge
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 45
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]10-3
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]Bridget Andrews
[/TD]
[TD]126
[/TD]
[TD]121
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 23
[/TD]
[TD]3-1226
[/TD]
[TD] Nelson's Touch
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]119
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 19
[/TD]
[TD]82-5P8
[/TD]
[TD] Splash Of Ginge
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD] 49
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]10-9
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]122
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]151
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

A couple of points to note. Firstly, I haven’t changed the ratings to allow for the weights going up. This was just to save time and effort. I’ve no idea what might not run. I strongly suspect Saglawy won’t but my bet on him is a small one as it was something I feared. This means the weights will probably go up again.

Magic Dancer is a fair marker. He was top-rated on RPRs when the weights came out and still is. I suspect he’s been trained for it but will be vulnerable to more serious jobs from the big yards and bandits. I’m happy with my 33/1 Mont Des Avaloirs as he’s got here and looks to have every chance if I’m right about him. But I’m not sticking. I’m twisting with a few others.

I can’t get my head around Al Dancer’s price but Paul Kealy keeps tipping him. He must have word but I can’t get involved. The Twister surely can’t win it with this one? Ballymoy and Mr Antolini (both taken out) ran last week over further and were beaten so maybe AD is just the best-handicapped he has. Old Ginge will need a slog in a bog to have any chance but you never know with the Twister. I’ll maybe stick a wee bit of sickness insurance on him.

I’m very interested in the Skelton pair Ch’tibello and West To The Bridge. I wouldn’t be surprised if the former is a decoy for the latter. They took out Mohaayed to let Bridget Andrews, who won the County on Mohaayed, ride this one.

I can’t help thinking Geraghty will end up on Countister. Hendo had a decent hand at the entry stages but relies solely on this mare. He has clearly kept her back to unleash her here. There’s nothing in her form to say she should have the winning of it but Hendo will know how she compares with other good horses and he has a good record in the race.

So too does Gary Moore and his threesome wouldn’t be here if he didn’t fancy them. I was hoping Jamie would opt for Ar Mest based on the ratings but the fact he’s gone for Sussex Ranger has me smelling an 18-month plot.

Obviously plenty can be fancied and I hope the ground doesn’t spoil it. I’ll probably be forced to back ante-post before I go to Spain in case I can’t get any bets on over there, in which case I’ll probably go for West To The Bridge, Countister and Sussex Ranger.
 
D.O if you don't mind me asking did you have Nordic Combined's top rating from his 2nd place finish behind Rathill over C/d. Although Rathill flopped next time out the form on the whole isn't working out too badly and he's one who's grabbed my attention. Initial reaction was he doesn't have the class for something like this and he tends to run in snatches which is more times than not fatal if you lose position in this event. I'm fully expecting Pipe to deploy some sort of headgear to a) fire him up a little and b) try and tidy up his jumping. Personally I think he needs further than 2 mile but at the price I'm going to be very tempted to have a decent rattle if Pipe does fit some headgear and it does turn out to be heavy ground on which he seemed to produce his better form on the flat.
 
Back
Top