Betfair Hurdle

All points accepted, GH.

On top of all that, COD is only a 5yo.

However, to remind people of my original thoughts:

He is Nicholls's only entry in the CH when he has hurdlers in the yard rated in the mid-high 150s.

Zarkandar went up to 160 after winning the Betfair Hurdle as a 5yo off 151 and went up to 163 for being fifth in the Champion. If COD is considered a 160 horse at home he won't win a CH but he could win the Betfair. The CH bets are NRNB just in case he does go and win at Newbury. Zarkandar was only 9/1 at Cheltenham.

I'm really trying to read the trainer rather than the horse and nick a bit of value but I'm comfortable with the risks.
 
Acknowleged, DO. Thinking outside the box is generally what keeps you ahead of the game, in the long run.
 
Last edited:
I think the NRNB bet for the Champion Hurdle at big prices is decent. If he performs averagely or worse in the Betfair - presuming he runs - then he won't go so you'll get your money back. On the other hand if he wins you'd be sitting on a nice price.

Very little downside as I see it.
 
Last edited:
There's a flip-side to that too, Lee.

I'm not suggesting that it applies in COD's case, but sometimes you will take a punt along similar lines, only for the horse to not run to expectations in his prep.........and the ba*stard ends-up running as a no-hoper in the target-race anyway! :lol:
 
Grasshopper said:
There's a flip-side to that too, Lee.

I'm not suggesting that it applies in COD's case, but sometimes you will take a punt along similar lines, only for the horse to not run to expectations in his prep.........and the ba*stard ends-up running as a no-hoper in the target-race anyway! :lol:
Click to expand...

Cue Elixir De Nutz...
 
True Grassy but we're talking Paul Nicholls and not Clive Brittain *. A poor performance from Cliffs of Dover and I doubt he'd throw him into the Champion on his second run from a long lay off.

* He was a flat trainer
 
Last edited:
wilsonl said:
I think the NRNB bet for the Champion Hurdle at big prices is decent. If he performs averagely or worse in the Betfair - presuming he runs - then he won't go so you'll get your money back. On the other hand if he wins you'd be sitting on a nice price.

Very little downside as I see it.
Click to expand...

Seems like no one can read here..he is not running in the Betfair. It is not even on PN's mind
 
wilsonl said:
Read what ?. Where's it say he 100% won't run ?
Click to expand...
He said the next available hurdle race for him to run in was the Kingwell.. if I am not mistaken that comes after the BETFAIR...So unless he is lying his face of the BETFAIR is not being considered


Sent from my SM-G920F using Tapatalk
 
Desert Orchid said:
Hmmm... a wee glimmer of optimism this evening...

I thought maybe I was reading a wee bit too much into PN's comments today about COD missing Newbury in the sense that it seemed he was implying that the ground would be the real reason for missing it, and finishing off with a "we shall see" or words to that effect. The suspicious bastert in me wondered whether he was still seriously considering it but wanted to keep the horse under the radar.

Having followed you in DO I think the blue is because they haven't declared it for the flat race it was entered in tomorrow.

The other day it had drifted to 50-odd at Betfair. Tonight it's back in to 37 and blue with a couple of firms.

I just wonder...
Click to expand...

Having followed you in on this DO I wonder if the reason for the blue is the fact that it isn't declared for the flat race over the weekend
 
Last edited:
I'd imagine he'll use the Betfair as a fitness exercise for the County Hurdle Maurice. Have you covered with a nrnb bet in that race?
 
Think he's in the same boat as me done his spuds re the Betfair but NRNB on the Champion Hurdle both with different selections of course and both now waiting on Irish roe for a bit of a recovery.
 
Maruco said:
I'd imagine he'll use the Betfair as a fitness exercise for the County Hurdle Maurice. Have you covered with a nrnb bet in that race?
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone is going NRNB yet, Maruco. I'll check later today when I get a chance and if I can get it I will take it.
 
Irish Roe makes the cut though so all being well we'll have a runner 11lb well in.
 
Last edited:
bigeeps said:
Cliffs of Dover isn't entered in the Betfair.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing...rd/462855/betfair-hurdle-(handicap)-(grade-3)
Click to expand...

Yup. Just in a moment ago. First thing I did was check. Aw well.

Still, the argument remains, he's the trainer's only entry in the Champion Hurdle so must be better than 145 by some way. I'll need to take out some sickness insurance on Divine Bere now! I suppose DB might be there to weigh up possible County Hurdle opps. (I got 20/1 nrnb for that.)
 
Danny said:
Irish Roe makes the cut though so all being well we'll have a runner 11lb well in.
Click to expand...
Irish Roe still 12/1 right now. Has to go off a good bit shorter once the pull in the weights he's getting becomes known to the general punter.

Sent from my EVA-L09 using Tapatalk
 
Yeah I'd have thought she has to go off favourite really not that it'll make much difference to her performance either way. I also have a funny feeling Jenkins will be pulled out at the 48 hours stage which will see most of them shorten up if that's the case.
 
Last edited:
Double Handful said:
Irish Roe still 12/1 right now. Has to go off a good bit shorter once the pull in the weights he's getting becomes known to the general punter.

Sent from my EVA-L09 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
surprising
very good chance
will be 4/1 on the day
 
Last edited:
Double Handful said:
Irish Roe still 12/1 right now. Has to go off a good bit shorter once the pull in the weights he's getting becomes known to the general punter.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. This is the point I tried to make after her run against Marias Benefit:

Desert Orchid said:
Yes. Initial back-of-fag-pack calcs put her on 146 before any consideration of the times on the day. That would put her in with a favourite's chance, I'd say.
...


Edit - I should also mention that it will be interesting to see what the handicapper actually does. It looks like it was a true-run race so it's more likely that he will take the form somewhere close to face value, in which case he could put her up 12lbs.

I think once that sinks in with the general betting public - ie that she's officially ridiculously well handicapped - and gets a proper mention on the racing TV programmes, it's unlikely she'll be a double-figure price.
Click to expand...

And later:

Desert Orchid said:
I was just a pound out. I can live with that.

I still believe once the general betting public, not to mention the media pundits, realise this the price will start to contract.

In theory, she will be unusually well-handicapped. Were it an ordinary Saturday handicapped she'd be entitled to be evens favourite.
Click to expand...

I really do expect a monster gamble to develop through the week.

Knowing my luck, though, the meeting will be off, bets will be voided and she'll have to race next under her new mark!

Edit - I've just gone in again at 10/1 NRNB with Betfair although they're limiting me to £20. The other day they wouldn't allow me any money on anything so that's a bonus.
 
Last edited:
As well in as she is officially I'd still be looking scratching around for a decent claimer as I think she's a bit vulnerable in a finish especially if the ground comes up testing. She looks a very straight forward type and hurdles really well (touch wood) so should be an easy enough ride. I think that extra bit off weight off her back would just help here see it out at the business end. It may be a bit harsh on Henry Brooke but at the end of the day Peter Atkinson won't get too many shots at a pot this big and if I were him I'd certainly be trying to give her every opportunity to land it.
 
Good luck to Danny and co with Irish Roe.

I started off liking Poppy Kay, then Silver Streak, then Lalor, then Gary Moore's horse, now Irish Roe!

I haven't backed any yet...and they can't all win, unless there is a five-way dead heat!

What a hot looking handicap hurdle this looks like eh?

Worthy of the reputation that this race has, for sure.

FWIW, Chti Balko doesn't really have the form for this, but does like to front run and is probably better than what he's shown thus far, and would be a decent back-to-lay off in running. I think he's best of the rank outsiders, and may run some sort of race, but probably won't trouble the judge.

Back-to-lay I think.
 
Last edited:
Marb read a piece somewhere today that McCain says he runs either or. Your fella will only go there if ground is heavyish...if not he runs Waterlord instead so just watch your bets re ante-post rules.

Edit- it's on Atr site Marble.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top