Black Caviar

EC1 said:
Steve ain't thinking outside any box imo..he's clutching at straws at owt in double figure odds
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Stop getting overexcited guys. I'm opposing her. You do what you want and we'll see who gets the return. The thing about horse racing is the result itself clarifies all. I don't see it as clutching at straws at all, rather many being anal about something that has not got an odds-on chance of happening. ;)
 
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SteveM said:
Stop getting overexcited guys. I'm opposing her. You do what you want and we'll see who gets the return. The thing about horse racing is the result itself clarifies all. I don't see it as clutching at straws at all, rather many being anal about something that has not got an odds-on chance of happening. ;)
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i'm in one camp here and you in another Steve

i don't give a fig about betting when Frankel runs..and i won't be when BC runs here..i don't see the point when there are so many otehr races to bet in..i just enjoy watching these really good horses
 
Aragorn said:
Hamm, the price may be skinny and I'm not going to back her but SteveM or anyone else has yet to actually put up a selection against her. Mostly because there is no sensible form pick. If she was trained in the UK she'd be 1/4. Nobody is having a go, we're just stating the obvious!!
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There will be plenty to oppose her with once the uncertainties around some clears up, Nephrite being a good example.
 
Takeover Target was a rpr 126 Horse..his earnings per start = £63,000

Black Caviar earnings per start = £172,876

i wonder what RPR BC is with an eps 3 times greater than a 126 horse
 
Much as I would not expect the likes of Brae Hill or Questioning to trouble Frankel, I don't expect Black Caviar to be subdued by the european sprinters at Ascot. Just had an idea though ... Is Excelebration in the Golden Jubilee? That might be interesting.
 
Everyone is purring about Frankel and rightly so. He could end up being the best miler we've ever seen and on what I've seen I wouldn't be opposing him at any time ever.

I can say exactly the same about Black Caviar. She is just as special and just as dominant as Frankel over sprint distances. To oppose her is illogical if you have seen what she has beaten and how easily. If she turns up 1/2 is extaordinary value.

Steve, watch her races and look at the form of the G1 horses she has beaten in a hack canter and tell me why you would regard her as any less of a certainty at Ascot than Frankel?
 
Gareth Flynn said:
To be fair to Overdose, by the time he finally got to run here he was probably crocked.
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Of course he was Gareth Overdose was an absolute machine before his feet problem started. I doubt if anyone would have been crabbing him had he ran at Ascot as a 4 year old.

Black Caviar doesn't have the problems he had plus she beats good uns and bad uns with the same ease.

I she is beaten she'd have a ready made excuse....traveling aclimatising etc so it wouldn't really affect her worth whereas beating the best in Europe would give her a boost.

To even think about opposing her is nuts with what the UK has going or them in sprinting.

I guarantee you no matter what price she goes off at she'l be in the 1.0's in running after 2 furlongs. There is no chance of her winning on the bridle with the jockey looking round she going to Ascot with nothing to lose and one thing in mind.......destroy them.

I hope some bookie puts up some decent prices for 3-4 lengths or over cos nothing but nothing we have has the ability to see the way she went.

All this talk about Ascot fields being special is all well and fine but you need special horses to make them special and right now the uk clearly doesn't have any horse over 2 years old apart from the sidelined Deacon Blues worth talking about
 
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EC1 said:
Steve ain't thinking outside any box imo..he's clutching at straws at owt in double figure odds
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:lol:

To be fair, I put two horses up "outside the box" at 33/1 that both held Bated Breath last season but because they're trained in Asia and nobody has heard of them, they'll stay 33/1 and folk will gloss over them.

It's a great race to bet EW in but if you're going to put horses like Bated Breath up, at least open up a formbook and see what's beat him and what's a bigger price.
 
Moonlight Cloud is the European sprinter I am particularly looking forward to seeing this year. Was quite sweet on her for the Champions Day Sprint, only for her to get absolutely no run whatsoever and finish full of running.

Hoping she pitches up at Royal Ascot.
 
Maruco said:
Steve, watch her races and look at the form of the G1 horses she has beaten in a hack canter and tell me why you would regard her as any less of a certainty at Ascot than Frankel?
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Yep... seen them, breathed them, analysed them from top to bottom and that's exactly what I'm saying... she is less of a certainty at Ascot than Frankel.

Frankel is the closest you will see to a mortal lock. In a sprint race where the draw could be significant against an international field I can't say the same for Black Caviar, who is running in a more unpredictable race, coming halfway around the world and when all's said and done is simply an inferior horse to Frankel... then again who isn't? ;)
 
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trackside528 said:
Moonlight Cloud is the European sprinter I am particularly looking forward to seeing this year. Was quite sweet on her for the Champions Day Sprint, only for her to get absolutely no run whatsoever and finish full of running.

Hoping she pitches up at Royal Ascot.
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Me too trackside. She could have a big chance.
 
BC is far better than Takeover target as i already pointed out..TT would beat all our sprinters now..so whats the point in opposing a better horse

if you are looking for a place bet..fair enough..but you are in dreamland if you think any euro sprinter is going to actually beat her
 
EC1 said:
BC is far better than Takeover target as i already pointed out..TT would beat all our sprinters now..so whats the point in opposing a better horse

if you are looking for a place bet..fair enough..but you are in dreamland if you think any euro sprinter is going to actually beat her
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You see I'm not saying she isn't the form horse. But I reserve my right to find one to beat her.
 
EC1 said:
i've answered this on other thread Steve

yes you might drop lucky and find one..but thats all it will be ...pure luck..as there isn't another sprinter close to her on form
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It’s not pure luck though. In any race you get a set of variables that a horse has to overcome. You take form on the one hand (I don’t deny she is the form horse) and available odds on the other (and analyse likely value) and imagine a plausible outcome in relation of one to the other.

Now while I like BC’s form I don’t consider it to be good enough to necessarily overcome the variables of the race: size of field, draw, improving opposition, trip to a course she has not set foot on in a different hemisphere, etc.

Consequently value is likely to be there amongst double-digit odds, whether you are betting each-way or place against an odds-on favourite that is far from a certain winner and one of the worst value bets I’ve seen.

It will not be luck that beats her. It will be a range of variables and dynamics that make up a horse race, as well as the one or two that get to the finishing line first.

Good luck if you're going in for her I'm not nearly brave enough.;)
 
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SteveM said:
It’s not pure luck though. In any race you get a set of variables that a horse has to overcome. You take form on the one hand (I don’t deny she is the form horse) and available odds on the other (and analyse likely value) and imagine a plausible outcome in relation of one to the other.

Now while I like BC’s form I don’t consider it to be good enough to necessarily overcome the variables of the race: size of field, draw, improving opposition, trip to a course she has not set foot on in a different hemisphere, etc.

Consequently value is likely to be there amongst double-digit odds, whether you are betting each-way or place against an odds-on favourite that is far from a certain winner and one of the worst value bets I’ve seen.

It will not be luck that beats her. It will be a range of variables and dynamics that make up a horse race, as well as the one or two that get to the finishing line first.

Good luck if you're going in for her I'm not nearly brave enough.;)
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you are starting to sound like Bruce;)..dynamics..variables...yes funnily enough i know what a horse race is...and i know when to watch..and when to bet..this is a watch..there are thousands of bets
 
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EC1 said:
you are starting to sound like Bruce;)..dynamics..variables...yes funnily enough i know what a horse race is...and i know when to watch..and when to bet..this is a watch..there are thousands of bets
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Okay then. You seemed to be asking for an explanation of my position. You were labouring the point that there can be no other outcome than her winning. I'm trying to show you the way I'm thinking.

If you are just watching the race and hoping for the best then fair enough. I want to take her on.
 
SteveM said:
Okay then. You seemed to be asking for an explanation of my position. You were labouring the point that there can be no other outcome than her winning. I'm trying to show you the way I'm thinking.

If you are just watching the race and hoping for the best then fair enough. I want to take her on.
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thats what i don't understand..why do you want to take her on??

there are dozens of races a week where an odds shot can be taken on..you don't seem bothered with them..and some of them are takeable

why do you NEED to take her on?
 
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EC1 said:
thats what i don't understand..why do you want to take her on??

there are dozens of races a week where an odds shot can be taken on..you don't seem bothered with them..and some of them are takeable

why do you NEED to take her on?
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See other thread... I think this is the sort of race to take on the favourite as she is bad value and I believe there is a good chance she will be beaten. The odds on the others will be proportionally bigger than they should be.
 
SteveM said:
Consequently value is likely to be there amongst double-digit odds, whether you are betting each-way or place against an odds-on favourite that is far from a certain winner and one of the worst value bets I’ve seen.
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Why on earth would you bet place only against an odds-on favourite?

Don't get me wrong though Steve, this is a great betting opportunity I agree, betting EW against her is fantastic due to the likely over broke nature of the place market on the day but getting her beat in the win part of the bet will be tough but remember, this is only a game of probabilities at the end of the day!

I still also think the 1/2 will look big on the day and she'll be sent off around a 1/4 poke, particularly if her Australian form is franked on the Tuesday.

Curren Chan, Little Bridge and even Dubawi Gold would be my naughty EW bets at present.
 
I think there are serious grounds for taking on Black Caviar. I am probably not going to do it myself (other than a bit of sneaky each way thievery on the day) but 1/2 on a horse that has no collateral form lines with the field certainly opens up the market. I don't see why Steve is getting such a hard time. I think he has explained himself perfectly well.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I think there are serious grounds for taking on Black Caviar. I am probably not going to do it myself (other than a bit of sneaky each way thievery on the day) but 1/2 on a horse that has no collateral form lines with the field certainly opens up the market.
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That's not strictly true. Remember Star Witness, just touched off in the two Royal Ascot sprints last year, he got beaten 4 lengths by Black Caviar in November 2010, and the mare has arguably improved since then.
 
In one of her recent races ScenicBlast can be seen disappearing out the back of the TV. Not recent form in terms of Scenic blasts win over here but collateral nonetheless.
 
It's collateral form with a totally different horse IMO though Aragorn - the horse was bottomed when they moved him to the US and Scenic Blast hasn't been the same since.
 
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