Born to Sea

100/1 is more or less equivalent to 9/1 doubled, if each event is independent of the other.

I would have Born To Sea less than 9/1 for the Guineas, and if he win that race he will be less than 9/1 for the Derby. You should be ok, he's probably a non-stayer, but don't do it again, a commercial bookie would never be that generous. If it comes to pass you are on your own.

Your slightly worried bank manager,

Mr Meaney
 
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It's a lesson I've been shown a few times but I never learnt from it! I know for certain a colleague would have been 33/1 but he's miserable. I think 50/1 is the right price to be laying now but given Powers are so short on Born To Sea for both races I can see why boots were being filled.
 
I haven't got access right now but I would surprised if Invincible Spirit has had many derby runners, let alone winners.

Urban Sea is a miracle mare though so I wouldn't be sleeping all that easily!!!
 
He's 10s with Ladbrokes for the Guineas and 20s for the Derby, the direct double is over 200/1 but it's obviously related.

I would have said 80/1 was a fair price but I wouldn't have expected a firm to have laid above 50/1 myself.

Hardly a sackable offence mind.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I would have said 80/1 was a fair price
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Agreed 80/1 was the price to be laying. The 6/4 Akeed Mofeed for the Bersforrd Stakes is now a best price 11/8 with Boylesports. There is so much hype factored into the price but trying to find one to beat him is impossible. It's the usual Aiden O'Brien 2yo garbage that have been running in and out of form all season. I could see Akeed Mofeed being odds on at the off on Sunday.
 
SlimChance said:
Agreed 80/1 was the price to be laying. The 6/4 Akeed Mofeed for the Bersforrd Stakes is now a best price 11/8 with Boylesports. There is so much hype factored into the price but trying to find one to beat him is impossible. It's the usual Aiden O'Brien 2yo garbage that have been running in and out of form all season. I could see Akeed Mofeed being odds on at the off on Sunday.
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I have been looking to back him but we could be looking at bog like conditions by Sunday.
 
Aragorn said:
I haven't got access right now but I would surprised if Invincible Spirit has had many derby runners, let alone winners.

Urban Sea is a miracle mare though so I wouldn't be sleeping all that easily!!!
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Having checked he has sired a french derby winner in Lawman but that is obviously over a shorter trip than the real Derby.

Allied Powers is the best 1m4f horse he has produced.
 
6/1 Furners Green
4th in the National Stakes is respectable but was run over in York. 9/2 with Boyles is a joke of a price.

7/1 David Livingston
Slightly disappointing in the Futurity and held by Astrology on that run but his best two pieces of form have been on soft going so can be given another chance. 7/1 seems fair.

8/1 Parish Hall
Good effort to be second in the Futurity but beaten 4 lengths on bad ground in the Tyros Stakes so hard to fancy on similar going on Sunday.

10/1 Astrology
Probably unexposed and might appreciate a mile on soft going but the 2nd and 4th in his maiden win have been run over on their subsequent starts. Unless you want to believe that O'Brien's improve for their first run. Taking 10/1 requires a lot of forgiveness and assumptions.

12/1 Athens
No reason he should reverse form. He was beat out of sight by the favourite last time. A truly horrific price.

12/1 Wrote
Won a Nursery in Listowel off 89. A very interesting runner given the 2nd Beau Amadeus finished a good sixth in the sales race at Fairyhouse last Sunday. 12/1 looks interesting.

14/1 Tenth Star
His run in the Tyros Stakes behind Parish Hall gives him no chance.

16/1 Choir
Disappointed when last seen in the Railway Stakes having been well backed to win a maiden first time out. Impossible to gauge but unlikely to be up to much given it's profile.

The rest look exposed and/or are useless.

Blue White Fire
Hit The Jackpot
Secretary Of State
Vault
Whip Rule

Now tell me how Akeed Mofeed is a) not odds on or b) won't hack up?
 
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Even though Akeed Mofeed impressed me the last day, there is no way I''d back him at odds on, any of Furner's Green, David Livingstone, Astrology or Wrote could potentially beat him.

The rest are a moderate bunch at best though.
 
I have to wonder myself why Akeed Mofeed is so short. He has only won a maiden for which he wasn't particularly fancied, in a time slower than the corresponding fillies' maiden. beating Athens who looked big and ungainly, needs eight furlongs and struggled to win his next race. Against him you have a horse in Furner's Green who was flying home in fourth at the end of the National Stakes, and needs to step up to eight furlongs, Astrology who was third in the Futurity and also needs eight furlongs, and David Livingston who was used pretty much as a pacemaker in both group races and yet managed to stay on well, so eight furlongs could suit him well also. Saying that, this is Aidan's B team (no Camelot, Imperial Monarch or Apollo), and Akeed Mofeed could be very good, but he hasn't been tested yet in good company.
 
Very good post. As I said there is a hell of a lot of hype around this horse and Born To Sea, Having said that Akeed Mofeed hardly got a Derby quote imitally after its last run so its hard to know how much the price for Sunday is effected by hype. Sunday's Bersford Stakes is not a top class renewal by any stretch of the imagination.
 
Sequoyah said:
I have to wonder myself why Akeed Mofeed is so short. .
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Oxxs last three runners in the Beresford were Sea the Stars,Azamour and Alamshar...they all won

i would be inclined to think Akeed Mofeed is better than Born to Sea
 
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Does anyone have a strong opinion on the O'Brien runners? I just remembered that I was told that Furners Green worked the best of those entered in the National Stakes at home. Whether that counts for much is debatable but it might explain his position in the market.
 
kjansch said:
Oxxs last three runners in the Beresford were Sea the Stars,Azamour and Alamshar...they all won

i would be inclined to think Akeed Mofeed is better than Born to Sea
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That is one way of viewing it.

Born to Sea was held up due to an injury so if he was out earlier would he have been in the Beresford instead?

The other way of looking at it is Born to Sea is more likely to be suited by 6/7f based on his physique and breeding so the Beresford over a mile may be further than he'd want at two. Notwithstanding the fact that STS won a guineas and Azamour won a St James Palace the three aforementioned colts were all 10-12f horses really.

Either way, I think both will turn out to be good horses. They are certainly in the right hands.
 
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Running BTS in that listed race could have been the making of the horse. Look at the melee in that 25 runner maiden yesterday ran in a bog on the inside track. The Beresford was a grueller too! Another excellent piece of placing by John Oxx.
 
Oh please. He was running out of options for the horse and it was more of a case that the race found him than he found the race. Don't be falling over yourself to give reverence to Mr. Oxx when the programme book slaps him in the face.
 
SlimChance said:
Oh please. He was running out of options for the horse and it was more of a case that the race found him than he found the race. Don't be falling over yourself to give reverence to Mr. Oxx when the programme book slaps him in the face.
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To be fair that's pretty much what Oxx said - They're just weren't any suitable races for him and he was ready.

I remember a Jim Bolger filly winning a listed race on debut and then struggled (To carry my money) after that.. I'm always a bit dubious now about getting over excited about these types.

In his interview on the RP on sunday Oxx was pretty positive about the horse. He clearly thinks that whilst he isn't Sea the Stars that he is capable of winning a decent prize somewhere down the line.
 
Aragorn said:
To be fair that's pretty much what Oxx said - They're just weren't any suitable races for him and he was ready.

I remember a Jim Bolger filly winning a listed race on debut and then struggled (To carry my money) after that.. I'm always a bit dubious now about getting over excited about these types.

In his interview on the RP on sunday Oxx was pretty positive about the horse. He clearly thinks that whilst he isn't Sea the Stars that he is capable of winning a decent prize somewhere down the line.
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He is the master of understatement and has no hidden or obvious agendas. His management of expectation is second to none.
 
If I remember correctly one offspring of US did not run at all, obviously may have had injury problems, and Urban Ocean did not exactly set the world alight. I am not knocking him just stating because of who his parents are doesn't automatically make him a superstar.
More offspring of Dubai Millennium never made it to a race course than did.
 
G-G said:
If I remember correctly one offspring of US did not run at all, obviously may have had injury problems
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Two of her offspring were unraced. A full brother to Galileo called Atticus, and a full brother to Cherry Hinton called Sea's Legacy. Atticus was at Ballydoyle and Sea's Legacy was with John Oxx.

Urban Ocean did not exactly set the world alight. I am not knocking him just stating because of who his parents are doesn't automatically make him a superstar.
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On the other hand, when your lesser offspring are Group 3 winners...
 
G-G said:
If I remember correctly one offspring of US did not run at all, obviously may have had injury problems, and Urban Ocean did not exactly set the world alight. I am not knocking him just stating because of who his parents are doesn't automatically make him a superstar.
More offspring of Dubai Millennium never made it to a race course than did.
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Ay? How can you compare a stallion to a mare?

Urban Sea is the greatest broodmare of the last 10 years without question - Even if Born to Sea is not as good as his more illustrious siblings he's still won a stakes race on debut and on that basis will more than likely end up a group winner. Whether he wins a group 1or not is a different matter but from memory, at least three (Galileo, Sea the Stars & Black Sam Bellamy) have won group 1's and some of the others were no mugs either.

Galileo is quite a handy stallion as well apparently.
 
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