On The Bridle
At the Start
Thank you Krizon - thats a member of the family - unfortunately he has got more hair in this photo than I!!!!
Breeders Cup
- Thread starter Bar the Bull
- Start date
Thank you Krizon - thats a member of the family - unfortunately he has got more hair in this photo than I!!!!
Sheikh
At the Start
I don't know but if the turf track is similar to the dirt track I ( like the road) what's the point in having a turf track ?
Ah the bald eagle is amongst us!! Lovely!! The forum is jinxed!
On The Bridle
At the Start
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
I've written one of them blog things for our website at work, here's my nineteen penneth:
The Breeders Cup is one of my favourite betting events of the year with plenty of value to be found in both American and European runners. This year sees the event move to Churchill Downs, Kentucky where the races will be run on traditional dirt and turf. Goldikova, Midday and Workforce will be very popular amongst the European punters and are all hot favourites to oblige in their three respective events. I’m going to concentrate on the main races and the races where I think there is a bit of value in the prices.
Friday
Firstly, in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, I’d be looking to take the favourite Winter Memories on. She won very well by 5 lengths last time out earning a Beyer figure of 80, however that was on Yielding ground at Keeneland and whilst the grey filly won on firm ground at Saratoga, she looks plenty short enough at 5/2 given there are plenty of other talented fillies in the field. The first thing to bear in mind with this race is that there will be an awful lot of pace on in the race with Wyomia, New Normal and Allure D’Amour all capable of setting the fractions but the latter of these two are drawn plenty wide enough. The European contingent all look very evenly matched; Together and Tale Untold both finished in a Newmarket sales race which hasn’t worked out tremendously well and was ran on soft ground; both look opposable. John Gosden and Brian Meehan should always be respected at this meeting and they are represented by Flood Plain and Quiet Oasis respectively; Flood Plain has only ran on rain softened ground and has only won at maiden level whilst Quiet Oasis won at Kempton and then followed that effort up with a 2L defeat in a Curragh Group 3 race; she’s probably the most likely winner of the European team. However, the two I’m keen on here are Wyomia and More Than Real; Wyomia has ran some very strong Beyer figures at Woodbine on the polytrack and if she repeats those efforts on the turf, her draw in 8 should see her be able to just about bag the lead and may run best of the pace horses. More Than Real finished behind New Normal last time out but she can came with a late rattle that day and with a strong pace likely here, she’ll be arriving on the scene late and fast from her wide draw and has a great chance given she looks like a filly on the upgrade from the much respected yard of Todd Pletcher. At a very big price, Nina Fever is worth a very small interest if she gets in the race as a reserve as she’s ran some strong competitive figures at claiming level.
In the Juvenile Fillies race, Europe will be solely represented by Brian Meehan’s Theysken’s Theory who won very well at Goodwood earlier in the year but she disappointed at Ascot LTO with a laboured effort and whilst she’s bred for the dirt, she looked like she’d had enough for the year last time out and I’d be looking for value with some of the American runners. Awesome Feather would be my pick here, and arguably would be one of my strongest picks of the meeting; she won by 8L at Calder last time out and has won all five starts at that track, two of which were in very impressive times clocking the fastest Beyer speed ratings in this field. That form looks to have been under rated as it was ran at a relatively minor track and the 7/1 available this afternoon looks more than generous. Tell A Kelly and Delightful Mary will probably give her most to think about but they’ve been running on the synthetic surfaces of Canada and California rather than traditional dirt.
Midday is bound to be very popular in the Filly and Mares Turf as she bids to win back-to-back running’s of this race and she comes here in fine fettle having won her last three starts including the Nassau Stakes and Prix Vermeille. She’s very hard to oppose given her admirable record but she’s very short at 11/10 and at that price, I’d rather back something EW against her. The Japanese horse Red Desire looks a strong contender with a 3rd in last year’s Japan Cup the pick of her form, 1m2f and fast ground look ideal in giving her a chance of turning Henry Cecil’s filly over. However, the one I like is Harmonious; John Shirreff’s three year old filly looks very progressive and could be the one to take over from Midday in this division. She won over 1m1f on fast ground at Keeneland last time out, clocking a Beyer figure of 100 which isn’t far behind what is required here (Midday clocked 102 last year), the trip should be no problem for her having won over 1m2f and at 8/1, she looks an excellent EW bet.
In the Ladies Classic, Blind Luck is going to be very popular, this likeable Zenyattaesque filly has a come from behind style of running and has been involved in numerous photo finishes, coming out on the wrong side of one last time out. Her high draw and defeat last time out make her opposable at a short price given her style of running, however, she will certainly be arriving on the scene late and very very fast, she has an electric turn of foot. Unrivaled Belle and Malibu Prayer are closely matched and I’d side with the latter in this event, she’s posted some very strong Beyer ratings and the trip looks perfect for her. She got beat last time out but Garet Gomez committed her far too early on and she also didn’t get the lead from the start. She could well dominate on her own from her low draw and whilst there’s a danger she’ll set it up for Blind Luck, she could be difficult to pass and I’d rather back her EW at 12/1 than the risky favourite at 9/4.
Saturday
The Juvenile Turf looks like it’s the European’s for the taking as they have the front three in the betting and rightly so looking at the form. Master Of Hounds reappears very quickly after running in the Racing Post trophy two weeks ago behind Casamento and whilst that form is very strong; the quick reappearance combined with the trans-Atlantic trip makes me very concerned and I wouldn’t be jumping in at 7/2. Utley also has strong European group one form with a fifth behind Wooton Bassett at Longchamp last time out, that’s arguably as strong as the Ballydoyle favourite has in his repertoire and he comes from a yard who won this race last year and can hardly do wrong this year, he’d be my pick in the race given Brian Meehan’s Mantoba is the same price and only has a reasonably weak conditions race victory to his name. The only concern about Utley would be the ground as he’s only raced with give underfoot. The Americans look like they’re going to struggle here and their best hopes lie with Banned and Soldat and the latter has the fast ground form to make him a possible EW bet. Another one worth a mention if handling the turf is Madman Diaries who has been running strong times on dirt and synthetics and comes here fresh off a two month break.
Nobody would begrudge Goldikova a third victory in the Breeders Cup Mile as this is likely to be her a final start and she’s one of the greatest milers and mares in recent times. She looks very hard to beat in this event, her old rival Paco Boy has had numerous chances to turn the tables and over her ideal trip on ideal ground going left-handed, he doesn’t look likely to reverse the form here. Gio Ponti seems better over further than this and will struggle to land a blow on the French mare. The only real danger in my opinion is Sidneys Candy who broke the course record at Del Mar and looks like he will thrive at a mile; he has had nearly three months off and whilst the break is a concern, it’ll need a fresh horse to turn over the favourite and she is likely to win in all honesty.
The Breeders Cup Turf looks weak this year and of the eight runners, only the European runners really warrant any consideration and realistically only two of them look likely winners and they both come from the Arc. Workforce won the Arc very well and looks a top class colt but his King George effort suggests he may need time between his races, he had a tough race LTO and is one to oppose at a short price on, especially with severe doubts over the ground. Behkabad finished fourth in the Arc and had a troubled passage and the ground wouldn’t have suited him that day; he looks likely to reverse the form given he has better ground and didn’t have as tough a race as Workforce in the Arc. Of the other two European contenders; Debussy will like the tight left-handed track but the trip is a concern and Dangerous Midge was getting beat in handicaps in the Summer and this looks a tough ask in first-timed blinkers. The Americans have no chance of winning this race!
The Breeders Cup Classic is all about Zenyatta, unbeaten in 19 starts but most of her wins come on synthetic surfaces and bar last year’s Classic, she has only won fairly soft conditions races. It would be amazing if she could win but she’s plenty short enough given question marks over her class on this surface. Quality Road played up in last year’s classic and was withdrawn at the start but he’s ran very well since on his favoured dirt surface, you have to wonder whether he’s a smidge short of the top top class to win this race though. Haynesfield looks to be getting stronger with every run and whilst Quality Road has his beating, his romp last time out was mightily impressive and he'd be my pick in a very competitive contest. The Japanese Colt Espoir City isn’t without a chance, he had a good pipe opener at Morioka last time out and has some very strong form from last year and would be worth an EW bet at 25/1.
The Breeders Cup is one of my favourite betting events of the year with plenty of value to be found in both American and European runners. This year sees the event move to Churchill Downs, Kentucky where the races will be run on traditional dirt and turf. Goldikova, Midday and Workforce will be very popular amongst the European punters and are all hot favourites to oblige in their three respective events. I’m going to concentrate on the main races and the races where I think there is a bit of value in the prices.
Friday
Firstly, in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, I’d be looking to take the favourite Winter Memories on. She won very well by 5 lengths last time out earning a Beyer figure of 80, however that was on Yielding ground at Keeneland and whilst the grey filly won on firm ground at Saratoga, she looks plenty short enough at 5/2 given there are plenty of other talented fillies in the field. The first thing to bear in mind with this race is that there will be an awful lot of pace on in the race with Wyomia, New Normal and Allure D’Amour all capable of setting the fractions but the latter of these two are drawn plenty wide enough. The European contingent all look very evenly matched; Together and Tale Untold both finished in a Newmarket sales race which hasn’t worked out tremendously well and was ran on soft ground; both look opposable. John Gosden and Brian Meehan should always be respected at this meeting and they are represented by Flood Plain and Quiet Oasis respectively; Flood Plain has only ran on rain softened ground and has only won at maiden level whilst Quiet Oasis won at Kempton and then followed that effort up with a 2L defeat in a Curragh Group 3 race; she’s probably the most likely winner of the European team. However, the two I’m keen on here are Wyomia and More Than Real; Wyomia has ran some very strong Beyer figures at Woodbine on the polytrack and if she repeats those efforts on the turf, her draw in 8 should see her be able to just about bag the lead and may run best of the pace horses. More Than Real finished behind New Normal last time out but she can came with a late rattle that day and with a strong pace likely here, she’ll be arriving on the scene late and fast from her wide draw and has a great chance given she looks like a filly on the upgrade from the much respected yard of Todd Pletcher. At a very big price, Nina Fever is worth a very small interest if she gets in the race as a reserve as she’s ran some strong competitive figures at claiming level.
In the Juvenile Fillies race, Europe will be solely represented by Brian Meehan’s Theysken’s Theory who won very well at Goodwood earlier in the year but she disappointed at Ascot LTO with a laboured effort and whilst she’s bred for the dirt, she looked like she’d had enough for the year last time out and I’d be looking for value with some of the American runners. Awesome Feather would be my pick here, and arguably would be one of my strongest picks of the meeting; she won by 8L at Calder last time out and has won all five starts at that track, two of which were in very impressive times clocking the fastest Beyer speed ratings in this field. That form looks to have been under rated as it was ran at a relatively minor track and the 7/1 available this afternoon looks more than generous. Tell A Kelly and Delightful Mary will probably give her most to think about but they’ve been running on the synthetic surfaces of Canada and California rather than traditional dirt.
Midday is bound to be very popular in the Filly and Mares Turf as she bids to win back-to-back running’s of this race and she comes here in fine fettle having won her last three starts including the Nassau Stakes and Prix Vermeille. She’s very hard to oppose given her admirable record but she’s very short at 11/10 and at that price, I’d rather back something EW against her. The Japanese horse Red Desire looks a strong contender with a 3rd in last year’s Japan Cup the pick of her form, 1m2f and fast ground look ideal in giving her a chance of turning Henry Cecil’s filly over. However, the one I like is Harmonious; John Shirreff’s three year old filly looks very progressive and could be the one to take over from Midday in this division. She won over 1m1f on fast ground at Keeneland last time out, clocking a Beyer figure of 100 which isn’t far behind what is required here (Midday clocked 102 last year), the trip should be no problem for her having won over 1m2f and at 8/1, she looks an excellent EW bet.
In the Ladies Classic, Blind Luck is going to be very popular, this likeable Zenyattaesque filly has a come from behind style of running and has been involved in numerous photo finishes, coming out on the wrong side of one last time out. Her high draw and defeat last time out make her opposable at a short price given her style of running, however, she will certainly be arriving on the scene late and very very fast, she has an electric turn of foot. Unrivaled Belle and Malibu Prayer are closely matched and I’d side with the latter in this event, she’s posted some very strong Beyer ratings and the trip looks perfect for her. She got beat last time out but Garet Gomez committed her far too early on and she also didn’t get the lead from the start. She could well dominate on her own from her low draw and whilst there’s a danger she’ll set it up for Blind Luck, she could be difficult to pass and I’d rather back her EW at 12/1 than the risky favourite at 9/4.
Saturday
The Juvenile Turf looks like it’s the European’s for the taking as they have the front three in the betting and rightly so looking at the form. Master Of Hounds reappears very quickly after running in the Racing Post trophy two weeks ago behind Casamento and whilst that form is very strong; the quick reappearance combined with the trans-Atlantic trip makes me very concerned and I wouldn’t be jumping in at 7/2. Utley also has strong European group one form with a fifth behind Wooton Bassett at Longchamp last time out, that’s arguably as strong as the Ballydoyle favourite has in his repertoire and he comes from a yard who won this race last year and can hardly do wrong this year, he’d be my pick in the race given Brian Meehan’s Mantoba is the same price and only has a reasonably weak conditions race victory to his name. The only concern about Utley would be the ground as he’s only raced with give underfoot. The Americans look like they’re going to struggle here and their best hopes lie with Banned and Soldat and the latter has the fast ground form to make him a possible EW bet. Another one worth a mention if handling the turf is Madman Diaries who has been running strong times on dirt and synthetics and comes here fresh off a two month break.
Nobody would begrudge Goldikova a third victory in the Breeders Cup Mile as this is likely to be her a final start and she’s one of the greatest milers and mares in recent times. She looks very hard to beat in this event, her old rival Paco Boy has had numerous chances to turn the tables and over her ideal trip on ideal ground going left-handed, he doesn’t look likely to reverse the form here. Gio Ponti seems better over further than this and will struggle to land a blow on the French mare. The only real danger in my opinion is Sidneys Candy who broke the course record at Del Mar and looks like he will thrive at a mile; he has had nearly three months off and whilst the break is a concern, it’ll need a fresh horse to turn over the favourite and she is likely to win in all honesty.
The Breeders Cup Turf looks weak this year and of the eight runners, only the European runners really warrant any consideration and realistically only two of them look likely winners and they both come from the Arc. Workforce won the Arc very well and looks a top class colt but his King George effort suggests he may need time between his races, he had a tough race LTO and is one to oppose at a short price on, especially with severe doubts over the ground. Behkabad finished fourth in the Arc and had a troubled passage and the ground wouldn’t have suited him that day; he looks likely to reverse the form given he has better ground and didn’t have as tough a race as Workforce in the Arc. Of the other two European contenders; Debussy will like the tight left-handed track but the trip is a concern and Dangerous Midge was getting beat in handicaps in the Summer and this looks a tough ask in first-timed blinkers. The Americans have no chance of winning this race!
The Breeders Cup Classic is all about Zenyatta, unbeaten in 19 starts but most of her wins come on synthetic surfaces and bar last year’s Classic, she has only won fairly soft conditions races. It would be amazing if she could win but she’s plenty short enough given question marks over her class on this surface. Quality Road played up in last year’s classic and was withdrawn at the start but he’s ran very well since on his favoured dirt surface, you have to wonder whether he’s a smidge short of the top top class to win this race though. Haynesfield looks to be getting stronger with every run and whilst Quality Road has his beating, his romp last time out was mightily impressive and he'd be my pick in a very competitive contest. The Japanese Colt Espoir City isn’t without a chance, he had a good pipe opener at Morioka last time out and has some very strong form from last year and would be worth an EW bet at 25/1.
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G
Gearoid
Guest
I got as far as "I’d be looking to take the favourite Winter Memories" and I thought better of it. 
jinnyj
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Jan 8, 2004
- Messages
- 4,379
Excellent stuff there, GS! Serious fingers crossed for the big Z though!
I was amused to read of the American jockeys version of the turf there on the RP website - two of them actually describe it as soft and liken it to European ground - erm? Except I can't remember either of them ever riding in Europe (I stand to be corrected of course!)
I guess Stoutey is peed off as possibly the course promised him no jar and yet when he gets there, there is a serious doubt. He is under alot of pressure to get it right with a horse as valuable as this. Heaven forbid we had another George Washington scenario.
I was amused to read of the American jockeys version of the turf there on the RP website - two of them actually describe it as soft and liken it to European ground - erm? Except I can't remember either of them ever riding in Europe (I stand to be corrected of course!)
I guess Stoutey is peed off as possibly the course promised him no jar and yet when he gets there, there is a serious doubt. He is under alot of pressure to get it right with a horse as valuable as this. Heaven forbid we had another George Washington scenario.
Powerscourt
At the Start
I like Giant Oak in the Marathon tomorrow. He is a bit of a plodder but the trip and track should suit. G Gomez will be riding.
On The Bridle
At the Start
How do you equate the form with the two Europeans - was considering a go at BH at 7's with Coral - finding it difficult to find a thread of form. Not a big fan of Aidan O'Brien at the BC but like this horse's improvement the last time - think a bit of value incorporates the ground unknown and drop in trip
On The Bridle
At the Start
She could be outstanding value come tomorrow night - had she as tough a season last year before winning??? Are King Henry's horses gone OTT?? Love the mare to bits but my hard earned will be staying in my pocket for this one -still think a combo of Bright Horizon - AZ Warrior - Zenyatta in some tasty multiples is the order of the day
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I have the money down on Red Desire at 9/2 in the chicks' turf race. Hard race for Midday after a hard season; she should be 2/1.
Can't see anything else to interest me.
Can't see anything else to interest me.
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
I know he's about as popular as Ceausescu on here but there's a good interview with Nick Mordin on the William Hill website, far more interested than the lemmings on the RP site tipping up Midday, Goldikova and Workforce trebles everywhere.
On The Bridle
At the Start
He's drifting to a tasty price now with the UK firms - bits of sixes available - best of luck sir but hope I beat you with BH:nono:
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Gomez off the mark with the first CD winner of the day too Powerscourt
G
Gearoid
Guest
Was there European horses in the race?
Powerscourt
At the Start
Two jockeys in a fist fight after the Marathon. Borel going nuts.
On The Bridle
At the Start
Bright Horizon no good - apologies Luke for trying to bury your fella!!!