Can I return to the issue of Scottish independence for a moment, Grass, seeing as we're on a Scot-related toic .........
Dominic Raab reminded everyone yesterday that the EU sets down a 3% of a country's GDP deficit as a prequisite for joining.
Doing a little look-up, I notice that Scotland's deficit for 2014/2015 ( the most recent availabe) was £15 Billion ............ 9.5% of GDP.
So, if Scotland voted for independence, it would then take many years of severe austerity and personal tax increases before it could hope to reduce this deficit to the necessary level to join. Are the Scottish people prepared for this? For tax hikes of around 25% and large cuts to services and benefits? For this is the only way to achieve the European requirements. An option might be to apply for loan funding but an independent Scotland will not be able to secure lending unless at extortionate rates as it will have no "history" of such a loan application (the UK as a whole has no problem raising necessary loans as it has never defaulted on a loan, but an independent Scotland is a different fish). So realistically, the only way to satisfy the 3% requirement will be savage cuts and tax raises.
Is Scotland really prepared to carry out an act of harakiri on itself by voting for independence? Honestly, an independent Scotland would be an economic basket-case that nobody would want to touch.
It's a fair question, Ice.
All of the economic arguments which applied during Indyref don't go away, if Scotland chooses independence - that much is obvious. However, I think the argument now is that it's a decision between being fu*cked as part of the UK, or being fu*cked as part of an independent Scotland. Either way, we're fu*cked, any way I look at it. :lol:
However, I think softer arguments are now at play.
Angus Robertson (one of the contingent of fat SNP blow-hards we have sent to Westminister), said something yesterday which is actually verging on profound - insofar as this argument is concerned. European citizenship means a great deal to the people of Scotland......or at least the vast majority of us (notwithstanding Clive's fantasy on the numbers). I believe this will hold much greater sway in any second Indyref than it did first time round Our European citizenship was at-risk first time around, and that's part of the reason why there was a No vote. This aspect should not be under-estimated, imo.
As I said earlier in the thread, Scotland would need to be given some degree of latitude by the EU, if it was to be waved-through as a 'new' Member. Given the inability of practically every EU country south of Munich to adhere to the fiscal/monetary rules laid down by Brussels, we may be afforded some wiggle-room. Accentuating the positive, there are no issues of trust (in the widest sense), which may be seen as a positive in terms of inward investment, and the EU may just be prepared to make an accommodation e.g. allow us in, and set a target further down the line. Perhaps the ECB may even lend to us at a reasonably preferential rate for a period of time - though I concede that this may be tossed-out as unfair by established EU members.
If not, and it becomes clear that we cannot meet the entrance criteria, then we are faced with a stark choice; either to vote down an Indyref2 (because the economic climate as part of the UK is deemed more favourable), or to take our chances, and absorb the pain of independence.
As has become my refrain since Friday - it is all degrees of avoidable badness.
FWIW, I think we are goners, regardless of whichever position the EU chooses to adopt. Our ability to absorb any Brexit pain is almost certainly easier if we stay in the UK.........but I'm not convinced this is going to be reason enough for the country to vote to stick with the UK.
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