Brexit

Brexit, Stay or Leave.

  • Stay

    Votes: 28 59.6%

  • Leave

    Votes: 19 40.4%
  • Total voters
    47
simmo said:
Am I ****. Walked out. Couldn't take it any longer. Worst job ever. People from Dudley have an average IQ of about 10 - used to love winding them up by asking if they meant Merry Hill in the West Midlands or Maryhill in Glasgow. "Eh? It's in Merryill. Is there anooother?"

How did they vote?
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sure you weren't fired?

a call centre operative with Tourettes is not exactly ideal
 
clivex said:
sure you weren't fired?

a call centre operative with Tourettes is not exactly ideal
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Close to it a few times. Hung up on someone because he was being a nob - he turned out to be an editor at The Sun.

Though my favourite Directory Enquiries story was a woman calling asking for the number for the Ritz - extremely posh sounding male voice in the background "I can smell your fanny". Probably David Cameron.
 
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Grasshopper said:
If not, and it becomes clear that we cannot meet the entrance criteria, then we are faced with a stark choice; either to vote down an Indyref2 (because the economic climate as part of the UK is deemed more favourable), or to take our chances, and absorb the pain of independence.
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I would have thought more Scottish business is entwined with the English economy than it is Europe's? If Scotland becomes a border outpost for EU customs then it'll certainly hurt manufacturing in particular and for that matter any goods that need transporting by road. The alternative would be to try and build a substantive container port on the Forth, but even that will involve costly 12 hour sailings down the North Sea

Scotland does have slack in its public sector, they could certainly achieve substantive job cuts there. I seem to recall they've got 750 folk employed at 'Visit Scotland' alone, and they're just a tourism promotional agency. The London Development Agency (despite having a wider remit, and bigger population to service) had less

As regards bending state aid rules you might like to keep an eye on the Italian banking system right now which could be in need of €40Bn very shortly. This is going to put Renzi on a direct collision course with the EU when they say its a state aid

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...0bn-bank-rescue-as-first-brexit-domino-falls/

and for Clive's benefit who has used up his subscription

Italy is preparing a €40bn rescue of its financial system as bank shares collapse on the Milan bourse and the powerful after-shocks of Brexit shake European markets.
An Italian government task force is watching events hour by hour, pledging all steps necessary to ensure the stability of the banks. “Italy will do everything necessary to reassure people,” said premier Matteo Renzi.
“This is the moment of truth we have all been waiting for a long time. We just didn’t know it would be Brexit that set the elephant loose,” said a top Italian banker.
The share price of banks crashed for a second trading day, with Intesa Sanpaolo off 12.5pc, and falls of 12pc for Banka MPS, 10.4pc for Mediobana, and 8pc for Unicredit. These lenders have lost a third of their value since Britain’s referendum.
“When Britain sneezes, Italy catches a cold. It is the weakest link in the European chain,” said Lorenzo Codogno, former director-general of the Italian treasury and now at LC Macro Advisors.
The country is the first serious casualty of Brexit contagion and a reminder that the economic destinies of Britain and the rest of Europe are intimately entwined. Morgan Stanley warned in a new report that eurozone GDP would contract by almost as much as British GDP in a "high stress scenario".
Italian officials are studying a direct state recapitalisation of the banks, to be funded by a special bond issue. They also want a moratorium of so-called ‘bail-in’ rules and bondholder write-downs, but these steps are impossible under EU laws. Mr Renzi raised the subject urgently at a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande at a Brexit summit in Berlin on Monday.
“There has to be a suspension of the bail-in rules and state aid rules at the highest political level in the EU, otherwise I don’t see how this can work,” said Mr Codogno.
Unlike the eurozone debt crisis in 2011-2012, there is no serious trouble yet in the sovereign debt markets. The ECB is effectively capping yields under quantitative easing.
The stress gauge in this episode is the health of the private banks. The Euro STOXX index of bank stocks has collapsed by half since last July, and is now probing depths seen in the white heat of the debt crisis. British bank shares have also plummeted since Brexit but this has no systemic implication so far. It chiefly reflects recession fears, and potential loss of access to the EU market for business.



uni_cred-large_trans++ZYpORh_ZkTm0CGj2eInB65iFOSjsfBcbJpIruAvM3wc.PNG
The share price of Italy's biggest bank Unicredit has collapsed


Italy’s banks are the Achilles Heel of the eurozone financial system. Non-performing loans have ratcheted up to 18pc of total balance sheets as a result the country’s slide into depression after the Lehman crisis.
The new bail-in reform this year has brought matters to a head, catching EU authorities off guard. It was intended to protect taxpayers by ensuring that creditors suffer major losses first if a bank gets into trouble, but was badly designed and has led to a flight from bank shares. The Bank of Italy has called for a complete overhaul of the bail-in rules.
It is now almost impossible for Italian banks to raise capital. They are caught in a pincer as the ECB simultaneously demands compliance with tougher capital adequacy buffers, in some case demanding fresh infusions of capital three or four times. Mr Codogno said the ECB is unwittingly destabilizing the banks in an overzealous attempt to make Europe’s banks safer.
Italy is now paralyzed under the existing eurozone structure. Analysts say it desperately needs a US-style bank rescue along the lines of the ‘TARP’ in 2008, which used federal funds to mop up bad assets and stabilize the banks. This is forbidden by the eurozone.
The government introduced a €5bn rescue fund called Atlante earlier this year, but this was funded largely by the banks themselves rather than the state and has been overwhelmed by events.
Mr Codogno said Italy is caught in a low-growth trap that is slowly eroding debt dynamics. “I don’t think the Italian system is about to blow up. We could muddle through for years, but we need to get out of this loop,” he said.



ital_debt-large_trans++HqEqWIQYN_HlsJ_HcWHEJIxEWsE1D4CBkg83VivV82w.PNG
Italy's public debt has jumped despite austerity measures. There is little buffer left against a global downturn


Hedge fund veteran George Soros warned that Italy faces the risk of a “full-blown banking crisis” that could bring the rebel Five Star Movement to power as early as next year.
The banking squeeze has become politically explosive in Italy after thousands of small depositors were wiped out at four regional banks late last year. They were classified as junior bondholders, even though most of them were just ordinary savers who did not realize what was being done with their money.
Mr Renzi may be forced to take matters into his own hands and enact a unilateral sovereign rescue of the Italian banking system in defiance of the EU, unless he wins concessions soon from Brussels. Those who know him say he will not go down in flames for the sake of European ideological purity.
 
simmo said:
Bells? Teachers? Famous Grouse?
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Grandfather drunk 1/2 bottle a day a scottish tory ffs nothing worse and local chairmen of conservative group needless to say I didn't like or get on with him especially when I burnt on a moustache on a photograph of thatcher in the local conservative club..
 
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Grasshopper said:
Angus Robertson (one of the contingent of fat SNP blow-hards we have sent to Westminister), said something yesterday which is actually verging on profound - insofar as this argument is concerned. European citizenship means a great deal to the people of Scotland......or at least the vast majority of us
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The SNP would be well advised to learn from the mistakes of the English conservatives to be honest

For about a decade David Cameron has been dog-whistling anti-European sentiments to the point where he lost control of the narrative and could no longer put the genie back in the bottle. The SNP have been doing something similar with their anti-English agendas. They might find they ultimately fall victim to the same dynamic if they allow their anti-English and pro-European fanaticism to become a run away train

The probability at this stage is that the Scots best interest is a deal that allows them to keep a foot in both camps, and to then wait and watch before making any further decisions years later. If they get themselves trapped into an irrevocable decision of their own with no shades of grey then they could get it wrong.

I note that in the last week (in fairness to her) Nicola Sturgeon seems to have been floating a few formative ideas about reagrding new arrangements and new models. I think this is probably smart, and it would be sensible if she could get Scots thinking along these lines rather than the narrow tribal 'in/out' prison. I note incidentally that Merkel has made some oblique reference somewhere in the double speak swamp about creating a new status level. I think if I were the SNP I'd be probing at a third ballot option
 
clivex said:
my mate lives in Bedford. the lady i know says England not london specifically. she works in theatre and travels extensively

I'm never rude to scots in England. Every time i buy the Big Issue I am unfailingly polite.

its a pointless discussion anyway. Certain types will always want to believe that certain groupings are uniformly of one mind. They have their prejudices and fairy stories readily to hand

and they can fck off
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:lol::lol:
 
I note that in the last week (in fairness to her) Nicola Sturgeon seems to have been floating a few formative ideas about reagrding new arrangements and new models. I think this is probably smart, and it would be sensible if she could get Scots thinking along these lines rather than the narrow tribal 'in/out' prison. I note incidentally that Merkel has made some oblique reference somewhere in the double speak swamp about creating a new status level. I think if I were the SNP I'd be probing at a third ballot option
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Scotland and Northern Ireland both need special arrangements to take account of particular circumstances.
 
Marble said:
Drone..you called the 2015 election correctly, and you called the European vote correctly. You understand the British electorate..
You are worth listening to. However, like a few smart ones you keep suggesting that the people who are predicting turbulent times now also sleepwalked us into a recession in 2008. This is not entirely true. Some of us warned of selling gold off for a fifth the price when it was actually.happening..not in 2009 after the recession. Some of us never needed telling the euro currency was never made for Britain. And we didn't just think this after that currency collapsed. You and others are basically tanishing anyone who suspects growth is going to choke off and national debt is going to rise with the same historical brush. And you are wrong to do this. Each individual is assessing the situation through the facts and scenarios that are playing out in front of them now.
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As much as it pains me to describe my self thus I see myself as one of the more reticent, sober and uncertain-of-anything correspondents on this thread, relatively speaking, so I'm not sure why you think I'm tarnishing anyone or spouting blind dogma

I don't really understand the rest of your post but if you're referring to my indifference to the financial markets getting their knickers in a twist, well that's simply because I've seen it all before and although reporting it is mildly interesting it is, and rarely has been, worthy of the almost pre-eminent place it gets in the news, or on here. The media love it because it's easy copy to formulate

My somewhat flippant post this morning in response to recovery in the markets does, I think, give credence to my scepticism

As for your last sentence, I'd proffer that there's few facts flying about but an immense number of scenarios

Was the Strongarm good last night? :)
 
Drone: the voice of reason, in a cacophony of jibber-jabber.

Ever shall it be thus. And a good job too.

:cool:
 
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gigilo said:
Grandfather drunk 1/2 bottle a day a scottish tory ffs nothing worse and local chairmen of conservative group needless to say I didn't like or get on with him especially when I burnt on a moustache on a photograph of thatcher in the local conservative club..
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That makes you an honorary Scot :)
 
... if you're referring to my indifference to the financial markets getting their knickers in a twist, well that's simply because I've seen it all before and although reporting it is mildly interesting it is, and rarely has been, worthy of the almost pre-eminent place it gets in the news, or on here.
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I'm with you there
 
It strikes me that there was an agenda by certain Tories and leavers in the lead up to this vote to continually discredit the warnings of financial experts, using the 2008 recession as a reference point to suit their own elitist economic agenda. I just don't think this was fair.
This isn't just about the morning after the vote, its about whether this decision, (if carried out) will help or hinder the U.K's long term growth amongst other things.
 
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The stock markets will take their lead from the States. This will only work its way through when their election is resolved. The currency markets are more important for us at the moment but we are effectively in limbo until:
1. article 50 button is pressed
2. negotiations advance to a level of relative confidence

Nothing is ruled in or out until then but the reaction from the Leave group since the vote is enough to tell you that they didn't have a plan A never mind B. All the lies are now exposed
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36641390
and we should either have an immediate general election or a commitment to one (or a second referendum) based on the result of brexit negotiation. I've gone through the gamut of shock, anger and despair since the vote but I'm coming around to the view that people should prove that they're stupid enough to vote for brexit a second time knowing the real situation.
 
I'm interested by what Obama said today in an American radio interview (which of course the British media isn't carrying)

He used the phrase "pause button" and then also spent a lot of time talking about Norway. John Kerry spent yesterday in both the UK and Europe. To think that no one spoke to the US Foreign Secretary informally about the situation is highly unlikely I'd suggest, and the US also has its own well established and connected network of embassies and diplomatic staff anyway

Obama seemed to be indicating that the UK would get a Norwegian deal. Sure that means accepting a lot of Europe's rules (some of which I'm more than happy with as it happens as I don't trust the Tories) but the EEA is a lighter touch, as Sylvi Listhaug seems to be demonstrating (unless the EU is going to catch up with Norway?) could be they've got more important things to worry about?.

We'll see, but I think the situation with Scotland is becoming more important. If Scotland gets caught in the cross fire and becomes a customs tariff post for Brussels they're going to be in trouble. They really need to come up with a special solution, which means that Sturge needs to try and calm down some of her dog whistling Mel Gibson wannabes. You can't maintain a barrage of dog-whistling anti, and not expect it to start to have an impact. Ask David Cameron, he'll tell you!
 
gigilo said:
My surname is Farquhar you can't get more scots than that,goes without saying got constant stick at school from pupils,teachers and even now still get it..
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The same Farquhar that used to give odds compiling seminars to industry employees?
 
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