DukeofMarmalade
At the Start
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- Nov 23, 2008
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I didn't know Khyber Kim was in training with Henderson, just assumed he'd been retired
Champion Hurdle 2013
- Thread starter On The Bridle
- Start date
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Darlan was certainly going very well when he fell AP found it very easy to move through into a challenging position but the pace had been very slow as it was in the Xmas hurdle. Zarkandar who was giving him weight took much longer to get into top gear and was actually caught a bit flat footed.
Who knows what horse would have been best suited by a much stronger paste but when next seen in the Supreme and the pace was much stonger I thought Darlan was found out big time and Cinders and Ashes showed him up as not having what it takes when the chips are really down in top class company.
Let's say he had stood up in the Betfair back in 3rd was none other than Raya Star beaten 1 3/4 lengths carrying 10st3lbs whereas Darlan was carrying 10st 10lbs Considering Darlan beat Raya Star off levels 4 lengths in the Christmas Hurdle if he had won the Betfair I don't see how anyone who thinks that can claim he's made massive improvement.
People see that white cap and green and gold colours it clouds their judgement and scares them into thinking he's something he is not.
Darlan as I keep saying won't win the Champion Hurdle and I strongly believe he won't even come close.
Eggs are cheap so anyone who wants to buy a basketful and chuckthem at me after the race feel free :0)
EC1
On a break
Who knows what horse would have been best suited by a much stronger paste but when next seen in the Supreme and the pace was much stonger I thought Darlan was found out big time and Cinders and Ashes showed him up as not having what it takes when the chips are really down in top class company.
the pace in the supreme wasn't fast Tanlic..it wouldn't have played to Darlan's strengths..the fact he was doing his best work late against horses that hadn't gone hard early does him great credit..he ran well in the supreme..should have been beaten further really
Even pace for a CH
H1toH3..H4....H5.....H6.......H7....H8.....finish
86.0/109.9/130.3/165.6/183.2/209.9/222.9
Cinders & Ashes Supreme
H1toH3..H4.....H5.....H6.......H7....H8...finish
88.8/112.7/133.0/169.3/186.7/212.1/224.67
even allowing for the supreme to be slower for class than the CH...those early fractions are a lot less than even pace..and a slowing of pace between H5 & H6 didn't help the stayers either
the pace in the supreme wasn't fast Tanlic..it wouldn't have played to Darlan's strengths..the fact he was doing his best work late against horses that hadn't gone hard early does him great credit..he ran well in the supreme..should have been beaten further really
Even pace for a CH
H1toH3..H4....H5.....H6.......H7....H8.....finish
86.0/109.9/130.3/165.6/183.2/209.9/222.9
Cinders & Ashes Supreme
H1toH3..H4.....H5.....H6.......H7....H8...finish
88.8/112.7/133.0/169.3/186.7/212.1/224.67
even allowing for the supreme to be slower for class than the CH...those early fractions are a lot less than even pace..and a slowing of pace between H5 & H6 didn't help the stayers either
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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- Nov 14, 2006
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- 16,050
Didn't Darlan show C&A what "it takes when the chips are down in top class company" at Kempton? *
* I don't need it pointing out to me that pace, track and ground were different. That's a given. I'm merely challenging the inference that the Supreme run is as good as Darlan is.
* I don't need it pointing out to me that pace, track and ground were different. That's a given. I'm merely challenging the inference that the Supreme run is as good as Darlan is.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Oh come on Grassy Cinder and Ashes hasn't raised a gallop this season both his perfomances have been lifeless.
If Darlan had been in a head to head with him at the last and beat him 4 lengths I'd agree but judging Darlan on a horse that clearly hasn't come to himself yet is crazy.
I could see Cinders and Ashes bouncing back to his best at Cheltenham and maybe even winning but Darlan? Sorry!!! I think if he wasn't JP he'd be double figures for the Champion Hurdle on what he's achieved to date with is basically very little by Champion Hurdle standards. IMO of course.
If Darlan had been in a head to head with him at the last and beat him 4 lengths I'd agree but judging Darlan on a horse that clearly hasn't come to himself yet is crazy.
I could see Cinders and Ashes bouncing back to his best at Cheltenham and maybe even winning but Darlan? Sorry!!! I think if he wasn't JP he'd be double figures for the Champion Hurdle on what he's achieved to date with is basically very little by Champion Hurdle standards. IMO of course.
:lol:................. :nono:
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Exactly, Aragorn.
Tanlic?......c'mon now?.....it's you that's having a laugh, surely?
You can't seriously be suggesting we write Darlan off at a stroke, and yet in the same breath suggest C&A might actually win the Champion Hurdle? Say it ain't so, Champ.
This theory appears to be based soley on the evidence of the Supreme - conveniently ignoring the more contemporary run in the Xmas Hurdle.
The "C&A not at peak at Kempton" excuse is nothing but guess-work, and when taken in the context of a second-outing versus Darlan's FTO, holds about as much water as tear-duct.
I say your advocacy of Binocular over lo these many disappointing years (one fluke in a sh*t race apart), has blinded you about Darlan. I think you can't bear the thought to have latched onto the wrong McManus horse, and have developed a kind of mental-McManus-myopia which prevents you from processing the form of his runners in an appropriate manner.
This being the case, I think Admin should ensure that all your future posts are labelled with suitable emoticons, which warn the reader of the dangerously misleading nature of your posts.
I think a banana-skin might be an apposite avatar. Even better if we can get an MP3 file which plays the old DLT 'Quack-Quack-Oops' jingle upon the opening of any if your posts.
Just a thought.
Tanlic?......c'mon now?.....it's you that's having a laugh, surely?
You can't seriously be suggesting we write Darlan off at a stroke, and yet in the same breath suggest C&A might actually win the Champion Hurdle? Say it ain't so, Champ.
This theory appears to be based soley on the evidence of the Supreme - conveniently ignoring the more contemporary run in the Xmas Hurdle.
The "C&A not at peak at Kempton" excuse is nothing but guess-work, and when taken in the context of a second-outing versus Darlan's FTO, holds about as much water as tear-duct.
I say your advocacy of Binocular over lo these many disappointing years (one fluke in a sh*t race apart
), has blinded you about Darlan. I think you can't bear the thought to have latched onto the wrong McManus horse, and have developed a kind of mental-McManus-myopia which prevents you from processing the form of his runners in an appropriate manner.This being the case, I think Admin should ensure that all your future posts are labelled with suitable emoticons, which warn the reader of the dangerously misleading nature of your posts.
I think a banana-skin might be an apposite avatar. Even better if we can get an MP3 file which plays the old DLT 'Quack-Quack-Oops' jingle upon the opening of any if your posts.
Just a thought.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Everything anyone in the world assumes about a horse race is guess work Grassy it's just that some of us are better at it than others.
The bookies have been guessing for 100 years and it would appear their guess is the same as mines.
Countryside Flame has beaten Cinders and Ashes twice this season yet every bookie in the country has the McCain horse 5 or 6 points shorter in the betting...why do you think that is? They must be as daft as me.
Could it be they think the horse hasn't come to himself yet and there's better to come?
I seem to remember having a similar conversation when I said the same about Katchit.
As for me and Binocular take your a$$ across to TRF and check out the thread on the 2011 Champion Hurdle and who started it.
For anyone looking in who doesn't know I had said right after Binoculars very first race he woud win a Champion Hurdle..Grassy had a laugh and he's never quite got over that fact I was right
Then in 2011 I started the Champion Hurdle thread saying that he would not beat Hurricane Fly which shocked more than few......think I was even called a traitor in jest. But Grassy who's doing a Jethro Tull (living in the past) thinks I'm still a huge fan of the horse and I can't bare to see another NcManus horse better him...........as we say in Scotland Grassy YER AFF YER HEID
Getting back to Darlan......A race run at a crawl, 2 main challengers stamina dependent it turns into s sprint and he beats a horse that was beaten by Zarkandar giving him 12lbs. Forget Cinders and Ashes and Countryside Flame who both ran poorly and that is a million miles away from Champion Hurdle form.
It looked the real deal at the time and no wonder Nicky first reaction was one of surprise..."I wasn't quite expecting he'd win like that" In the cold light of day he beat a Grade 2 horse at best horse who looked like he would finish nearer last than first turning for home and in his trainers word just outstayed them.
Good luck to Darlan he's a nice horse and deserves his chance but my view is there's no woomph there. I thought he was made to look ordinary in the Supreme and his win over Captain Conan was hardly something to get excited about as he was rated 6lbs ahead of him.
AP MCoy is not slow at coming forward when he thinks a horse is special. When Binocular as a young horse was being prepared for the Champion in 2009 he was quoted as saying "he's the fastest jumper of hurdle I've ever sat on"... "At this stage of his career, he is as exciting as they come and I wouldn't want anyone else to ride him and Henderson was praising him to the high heavens saying he jumped like a ballet dancer.
The handicappers view of Darlan was for beating a 155 rated horse by 4 lengths he gave him a 166 rating but Binocular only beat a 150 rated horse but was so impressive the handicapper shot him up to 169 and he didn't even win the race that year.
This time round and taking into consideration that Binocular is surely way past his best we have McCoy saying he doesn't know which one he'll ride.
Despite the fact common sense says he'll ride Darlan the fact he's even having to think about it has got to tell you he is not totally sold on Darlan as a Champion Hurdle horse he's overly excited about.
The bookies made him favourite but I doubt if the handicapper, Nicky Henderson, Ap McCoy or JP would agree he deserves to be
So shut up Grassy and listen to yer old Da.....he wins nothing.
The bookies have been guessing for 100 years and it would appear their guess is the same as mines.
Countryside Flame has beaten Cinders and Ashes twice this season yet every bookie in the country has the McCain horse 5 or 6 points shorter in the betting...why do you think that is? They must be as daft as me.
Could it be they think the horse hasn't come to himself yet and there's better to come?
I seem to remember having a similar conversation when I said the same about Katchit.
As for me and Binocular take your a$$ across to TRF and check out the thread on the 2011 Champion Hurdle and who started it.
For anyone looking in who doesn't know I had said right after Binoculars very first race he woud win a Champion Hurdle..Grassy had a laugh and he's never quite got over that fact I was right
Then in 2011 I started the Champion Hurdle thread saying that he would not beat Hurricane Fly which shocked more than few......think I was even called a traitor in jest. But Grassy who's doing a Jethro Tull (living in the past) thinks I'm still a huge fan of the horse and I can't bare to see another NcManus horse better him...........as we say in Scotland Grassy YER AFF YER HEIDGetting back to Darlan......A race run at a crawl, 2 main challengers stamina dependent it turns into s sprint and he beats a horse that was beaten by Zarkandar giving him 12lbs. Forget Cinders and Ashes and Countryside Flame who both ran poorly and that is a million miles away from Champion Hurdle form.
It looked the real deal at the time and no wonder Nicky first reaction was one of surprise..."I wasn't quite expecting he'd win like that" In the cold light of day he beat a Grade 2 horse at best horse who looked like he would finish nearer last than first turning for home and in his trainers word just outstayed them.
Good luck to Darlan he's a nice horse and deserves his chance but my view is there's no woomph there. I thought he was made to look ordinary in the Supreme and his win over Captain Conan was hardly something to get excited about as he was rated 6lbs ahead of him.
AP MCoy is not slow at coming forward when he thinks a horse is special. When Binocular as a young horse was being prepared for the Champion in 2009 he was quoted as saying "he's the fastest jumper of hurdle I've ever sat on"... "At this stage of his career, he is as exciting as they come and I wouldn't want anyone else to ride him and Henderson was praising him to the high heavens saying he jumped like a ballet dancer.
The handicappers view of Darlan was for beating a 155 rated horse by 4 lengths he gave him a 166 rating but Binocular only beat a 150 rated horse but was so impressive the handicapper shot him up to 169 and he didn't even win the race that year.
This time round and taking into consideration that Binocular is surely way past his best we have McCoy saying he doesn't know which one he'll ride.
Despite the fact common sense says he'll ride Darlan the fact he's even having to think about it has got to tell you he is not totally sold on Darlan as a Champion Hurdle horse he's overly excited about.
The bookies made him favourite but I doubt if the handicapper, Nicky Henderson, Ap McCoy or JP would agree he deserves to be
So shut up Grassy and listen to yer old Da.....he wins nothing.
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
This is the reply I expected more or less to the letter. You never let me down.
links781
Journeyman
He looks to have strengthened up and improved significantly to me though ?? Maybe Cinders and ashes has not come on at all?
I am not going to write Darlan off yet even though the price is laughable at the moment.
I am not going to write Darlan off yet even though the price is laughable at the moment.
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
And as they come to the last AP McCoy and Darlan have gone 5 lengths clear...... BANG!!!!!!!!!!!! don't panic folks it's only Fist blowing his brains out he probably missed
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EC1
On a break
but you aren't..you guessed the supreme was a strongly run race when it wasn't.
yes the game has guesswork..but that can be reduced with just a little legwork...which you don't appear to do.
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
It's sudden injections of pace that catch most horses out at Cheltenham not just a hell for leather pace.
You are the one who need to do more leg work. You say the slow early pace wouldn't have suited Darlan....How on earth do you come to the conclusion.
Most say he would have won the Betfair which was run at a crawl for the first mile and if they had gone any slower in the Xmas Hurdle they were in danger of stopping.
I'd say he's pretty much at home off a slow early pace.
As far as the Supreme goes I have had my moments you'll find my very first post on last years race under Hurdygurdyman
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=88605&start=0
I do plenty watching and judge horses by what I see I really don't find doing sums helps a lot....Good luck with your method though if it find you winner then good.
I've only had 3 of the last 5 CH winners so your probably right I should get more exercise
Cheeky sod
You are the one who need to do more leg work. You say the slow early pace wouldn't have suited Darlan....How on earth do you come to the conclusion.
Most say he would have won the Betfair which was run at a crawl for the first mile and if they had gone any slower in the Xmas Hurdle they were in danger of stopping.
I'd say he's pretty much at home off a slow early pace.
As far as the Supreme goes I have had my moments you'll find my very first post on last years race under Hurdygurdyman
http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-racing-forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=88605&start=0
I do plenty watching and judge horses by what I see I really don't find doing sums helps a lot....Good luck with your method though if it find you winner then good.
I've only had 3 of the last 5 CH winners so your probably right I should get more exercise
Cheeky sod
EC1
On a break
i don't know anyone that can judge pace just by the eye Tanlic..the sums beat the eye anytime imo. Yes if they crawl its a doddle..but beyond that no one is good enough just by eye.
the fact that Darlan has run well in the betfair and the supreme is to his advantage..he wasn't suited by those pace scenarios but still ran well.
in a strongly run CH..which i'm sure this one will be..you would be foolish to dismiss him imo
if the betfair and supreme had been true tests he would have won both imo..8 wins from 8..
the fact that Darlan has run well in the betfair and the supreme is to his advantage..he wasn't suited by those pace scenarios but still ran well.
in a strongly run CH..which i'm sure this one will be..you would be foolish to dismiss him imo
if the betfair and supreme had been true tests he would have won both imo..8 wins from 8..
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BennyB
Senior Jockey
'Judge the effects of pace' , not 'judge the pace'.
EC1
On a break
the eye fooled some experts about the supreme..i would also say that spotting the ease in pace before the 6th hurdle in that race was also invisible to the eye
to those that can judge pace by eye....view these races and say what pace each race is run at
Jackie Love 30/12/12 Lingfield
Sandy Lane 21/12/12 Lingfield
Mack's Sister 11/12/12 Lingfield
even slow or fast?
S
SlimChance
Guest
I've just watched last years Champion Hurdle again and had another cut off of Binocular at 25/1. The price is madness.
S
SlimChance
Guest
Every horse at the front of the betting has questions to answer and if he can run close to his best he'll be in the frame. I just don't see how he's 25/1. Last year McCoy and Walsh rode tactically bad races expecting the front two to collapse up the hill. He was not beaten at all far. the novices do nothing for me so for me he's a contender.
S
SlimChance
Guest
Thanks I forgot to mention flattening the last, he'd have been closer only for that at least.
swedish chef
At the Start
My ratings so far for those that imo have run to 160+ so far this season
Oscar Whisky 170++ 2 1/2m
Grandouet 167++
Zarkandar 165+
Hurricane Fly 164++
Rock On Ruby 161+
Darlan 160++
I think connections of Oscar Whisky should seriously be considering this race instead of the World Hurdle and have had a small e/way at 16/1 just in case otherwise I'm happy with my 12/1 Grandouet.
Oscar Whisky 170++ 2 1/2m
Grandouet 167++
Zarkandar 165+
Hurricane Fly 164++
Rock On Ruby 161+
Darlan 160++
I think connections of Oscar Whisky should seriously be considering this race instead of the World Hurdle and have had a small e/way at 16/1 just in case otherwise I'm happy with my 12/1 Grandouet.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Go listen to the commentry for the Betfair hurdle or the Xmas hurde.........pretty sure you'll here the commentator tell you they are going no pace. When you are around horses every other day you soon get an eye for it........Trust me Darlan wouldn''t win a champion hurdle if he was carrying 10lb less he isn't in the same league as Grandouet or Oscar Whisky for that matter. He started off as 4th in the pecking list and after The Irish Champion Hurdle which should be interesting he still could be if Binocular were to run Hurricane Fly close.
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Well, you do have a history of adopting bold positions, which is an admirable trait. I just think completely dismissing Darlan as you do is a tad premature given his profile.
What price do you think Darlan should be/would be prepared to lay him at? Presumably, if you have him behind Grandouet, C&A, Oscar Whisky and Bino, we're talking well north of 20/1??
What price do you think Darlan should be/would be prepared to lay him at? Presumably, if you have him behind Grandouet, C&A, Oscar Whisky and Bino, we're talking well north of 20/1??
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