Champion Hurdle 2013
- Thread starter On The Bridle
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Grasshopper
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I don't think it was a particularly astute ride from McCoy in the Supreme, reet. C&A never left the rail the entire race, wheras Darlan was anchored on the outside at the back of the field all the way, and was widest off all coming down the hill. Considering how and where he was positioned, it was a pretty heroic effort from Darlan, imo, and not one which suggested failure through not handling the track.
davidjohnson
At the Start
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The Darlan ride in the Supreme reminds me of the one on Best Mate in Florida Pearl's KG, neither ride suggested full confidence from connections the horse would see out the race in the conditions. In both cases it was misplaced, and all the horses did do is stick to their task. I think Darlan will be committed into a Champion Hurdle before he was the Supreme.
EC1
On a break
you don't read threads properly Tanlic..i already said its easy to judge some races by eye..and i didn't question the betfair pace.
don't always believe the commentators though..even they misjudge early pace..and they watch a few more races than you do
I did list 3 races for anyone with an eye to judge the pace of though..which you have just ignored..let me know your eye opinion of those 3 races..although by time i've got an answer you could have got a full database of times yourself
read my reply a few back..and tell me your opinion of those 3 races
i mentioned it 3 times just in case you missed it
cheeky begger i am
in fact..here they are again
Jackie Love 30/12/12 Lingfield
Sandy Lane 21/12/12 Lingfield
Mack's Sister 11/12/12 Lingfield
even slow or fast?
don't always believe the commentators though..even they misjudge early pace..and they watch a few more races than you do
I did list 3 races for anyone with an eye to judge the pace of though..which you have just ignored..let me know your eye opinion of those 3 races..although by time i've got an answer you could have got a full database of times yourself
read my reply a few back..and tell me your opinion of those 3 races
i mentioned it 3 times just in case you missed it
cheeky begger i am
in fact..here they are again
Jackie Love 30/12/12 Lingfield
Sandy Lane 21/12/12 Lingfield
Mack's Sister 11/12/12 Lingfield
even slow or fast?
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EC1
On a break
neither do i..unfortunately in a strong run race ..ROR ..just for one may be a few in front of both at the line..throw in Zarkandar+ Darlan...and even Grandouet..if little pace ..and i think the race is wide open at the moment
anyone taking ante post on HF is banking on it not being a stamina test..on top of if the horse is good/fit enough on the day..a lot of ifs and buts there..might as well wait until the day betting on this race imo
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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What could they possibly "know", Aragorn? Even if he came back to his Champion-Hurdle-winning best, he still wouldn't be good enough (imo).
I reckon they take they view the race is fairly open, and are just being cautious until Binocular has been seen out next weekend (I'm still not convinced he'll go to Leopardstown). His price is probably more a reflection of them not being particularly strong on any of the horses at the top-end of the market.
If they did know something, they would surely have opened a market on the AIG by now.
I reckon they take they view the race is fairly open, and are just being cautious until Binocular has been seen out next weekend (I'm still not convinced he'll go to Leopardstown). His price is probably more a reflection of them not being particularly strong on any of the horses at the top-end of the market.
If they did know something, they would surely have opened a market on the AIG by now.
M
Marble
Guest
Can I say, I'm getting sick and tired of the snide comments about how Tanlic writes his posts, how he 'doesn't read posts properly or whatever'.
It is very harsh, I think the guy has an abundance of knowedge and puts his heart and soul into educating us. This forum would be so much poorer if he packed it in.
Give the guy a break.
It is very harsh, I think the guy has an abundance of knowedge and puts his heart and soul into educating us. This forum would be so much poorer if he packed it in.
Give the guy a break.
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Grasshopper
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Natch, I don't agree, EC1.
Anyone who thinks HF wasn't right last year can legitimately have a bet. Horses who win the Hatton's Grace tend not to have too many stamina concerns.
Ackowledging that HF is clearly in good form (hard to argue otherwise, no?), any bet on him is further legitimised, if you subscribe to any of the following concerns:
Darlan: Class and track and possible second-colours
Grandouet: Stamina and/or "thinker"
Zarkander: Class and trip
Binocular: Fitness and can throw in odd poor effort
RoR: Fitness and class (acknowledge latter is marginal at worst)
I'm not saying that any or all of these concerns will be realised. But they are legit in the eyes of some, and it's therefore wrong to represent HF backers as Hear-no-Evil merchants who have backed a horse that will struggle to get home in a true-run race.
Your numbers may well suggest that, but you yourself are perhaps ignoring some other factors which constrained HF's performance last season.
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EC1
On a break
Can I say, I'm getting sick and tired of the snide comments about how Tanlic writes his posts, how he 'doesn't read posts properly or whatever'.
It is very harsh, I think the guy has an abundance of knowedge and puts his heart and soul into educating us. This forum would be so much poorer if he packed it in.
he doesn't read them properly..thats not snide its fact
re the last paragraph..i'm too embarrassed to respond..give over man
i enjoy the banter with Tanlic..you are out of order..as you were a few week ago when you were at total tw@t with me about that lay on "your" thread
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Can I say, I'm getting sick and tired of the snide comments about how Tanlic writes his posts, how he 'doesn't read posts properly or whatever'.
It is very harsh, I think the guy has an abundance of knowedge and puts his heart and soul into educating us. This forum would be so much poorer if he packed it in.
:lol:
No. Fist thrives on it Marb, don't get all emotional about it, he's had more knocks than some of his Thai neighbours but he keeps comin back. He also doesn't read what other people say and has always been an antagonistic fecker so I see no reason why anyone should give him a break when he clearly doesn't want one.
Grassy, that was Ardross not me.
EC1
On a break
Natch, I don't agree, EC1.
Anyone who thinks HF wasn't right last year can legitimately have a bet. Horses who win the Hatton's Grace tend not to have too many stamina concerns.
Ackowledging that HF is clearly in good form (hard to argue otherwise, no?), any bet on him is further legitimised, if you subscribe to any of the following concerns:
Darlan: Class and track and possible second-colours
Grandouet: Stamina and/or "thinker"
Zarkander: Class and trip
Binocular: Fitness and can throw in odd poor effort
RoR: Fitness and class (acknowledge latter is marginal at worst)
I'm not saying that any or all of these concerns will be realised. But they are legit in the eyes of some, and it's therefore wrong to represent HF backers as Hear-no-Evil merchants who have backed a horse that will struggle to get home in a true-run race.
Your numbers may well suggest that, but you yourself are perhaps ignoring some other factors which constrained HF's performance last season.
i wasn't really advocating betting anything ante post when i said others should be wary of going in heavy on HF..i wouldn't back any of them before the day..but i don't really do ante post anyway
i personally think the ? against some of the others on your list are questionable..partcularly ROR...but generally agree with others...it highlights just how open the race is and that no horse should be viewed as nailed on at any point between now and the race
if anyone really does believe that HF wasn't right last year though..then i would expect them to pile on big style
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M
Marble
Guest
EC1, it was an emotional time, boxing day, and I was interested in what peoples bankers were. Maybe there was a genuine misunderstanding, in any event, no hard feelings.
Aragorn, fair enough, I'm sure Tanlic will respond and speak for himself, I'm gonna say another cringeworthy thing - I think some of you feel inferior around the bloke.
Aragorn, fair enough, I'm sure Tanlic will respond and speak for himself, I'm gonna say another cringeworthy thing - I think some of you feel inferior around the bloke.
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EC1
On a break
EC1, it was an emotional time, boxing day, and I was interested in what peoples bankers were. Maybe there was a genuine misunderstanding, in any event, no hard feelings.
Aragorn, fair enough, I'm sure Tanlic will respond and speak for himself, I'm gonna say another cringeworthy thing - I think some of you feel inferior around the bloke.
no probs Marb
i don't feel inferior round anyone i can guarantee you of that..i enjoy the exchange of views with everyone on here in the main
he's had nowhere near the sh1t i used to get a few years ago...and looking back..i deserved some of that..not all like
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Desert Orchid
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Not necessarily. They stand alone as best price on only oneof the first 25 in the list (ROR at 10/1).
Going off at a tangent on to the ante-post betting on the National, I see that for all the brouhaha about how impressive Prince De Beauchene was on his comeback, On His Own has been cut all week across the board into joint favouritism. This was Ruby's choice last year - he could have ridden the winner or third - and he was travelling very well indeed when coming down at Becher's 2 (possibly distracted by loose horse jumping diagonally in front of him). I took 16/1 last night.
M
Marble
Guest
no probs Marb
i don't feel inferior round anyone i can guarantee you of that..i enjoy the exchange of views with everyone on here in the main
he's had nowhere near the sh1t i used to get a few years ago...and looking back..i deserved some of that..not all like
Lol, who actually were you on the once great TRF?
I keep hearing about past on goings and thinking who was he, not that transvestite I nearly pulled once I take it?
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I have a already laid him at4.9 and 5 why would I want to lay him any higher?
I don't know how you evaluate these things....I've already said I don't think he's good enough for the Champion Hurdle and if I am right he could be 100/1 and it wouldn't matter.
I don't know that him being on the outside in the Supreme was any sort of disadvantage, everything came over to the stand side after the last so the possibility he decided the better ground was away from the rail. Davy Russell also seemed too hold that view and never left the outer
That aside he was traveling well enough until after the 3rd last Henry Brooke on Agent Archie went for home and the pace visibly quickened and by the time they jumped the second last he was under pressure coming down the hill to get on terms. He's run on best of the rest but considering Cinders and Ashes made terrible mistakes and won with a bit in hand you'd have to agree he was beaten by a better horse on the day.
When Sprinter Sacre was beaten in the Supreme it was plain to see he failed through immaturity a point I couldn't emphasize enough but I just can't find an excuse for Darlan. Henderson thought him mature enough to run in the Betfair Hurdle so he could hardly be described as backward or immature. Nicky Henderson is not a trainer who pushes young horses into doing things he feels they are not capable of.
My argument is that he has less room for improvement than some of the others that have come out of Seven barrows. He did better than Grandouet or Spirit Son did and better than Oscar Whisky simply because he was more forward than they were when they ran at Cheltenham.
These are facts I am not pulling them out of a hat and I just don't see how anyone can say that he has improved on the basis of beating Raya Star by 4 lengths off level weights.
No one is denying he looked fairly impressive but surely you must ask if 4/1 is a fair price based on that form.
Considering Zarkandar beat Raya Star 1 1/2 length giving him 12lbs and Oscar Whisky beat him 8 lengths giving him 7 lbs I'd say Darlan has more than a bit to find with either.
Maybe as you say I am being premature but if Nicky Henderson is sending him straight to Cheltenham then anyone backing him will be doing so on a wing and a prayer............I'm happier having laid him than I would be backing him.
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Grasshopper
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Gotcha, Aragorn.
EC1, I tend to agree with you re ROR - of the others, he has the least question-marks against him.
My involvement in the ante-post market came to an end with my speculative tilt on Solwhit. I've adopted my positions, and any further action on my part, is likely to be as a layer. I've a satisfactory position around HF already, and won't be going in at shorter-odds if he were to win well next week. If he is beaten, I will resort to blind and unwavering faith at the Festival. :lol:
Tanlic, price is always relevant. If Darlan is the absolute no-hoper you suggest, why limit what you lay?
Like I say, you have adopted a strong position based on a certain interpretation of the available evidence - in much the same way as I have with Hurricane Fly. I've no beef with that. I just think absolute dismissal at this stage of his career i.e. when he has a still-progressive profile, seems a bit previous to me. You're basically saying it's impossible for him to improve again, and it's almost certainly not that black-and-white.
EC1, I tend to agree with you re ROR - of the others, he has the least question-marks against him.
My involvement in the ante-post market came to an end with my speculative tilt on Solwhit. I've adopted my positions, and any further action on my part, is likely to be as a layer. I've a satisfactory position around HF already, and won't be going in at shorter-odds if he were to win well next week. If he is beaten, I will resort to blind and unwavering faith at the Festival. :lol:
Tanlic, price is always relevant. If Darlan is the absolute no-hoper you suggest, why limit what you lay?
Like I say, you have adopted a strong position based on a certain interpretation of the available evidence - in much the same way as I have with Hurricane Fly. I've no beef with that. I just think absolute dismissal at this stage of his career i.e. when he has a still-progressive profile, seems a bit previous to me. You're basically saying it's impossible for him to improve again, and it's almost certainly not that black-and-white.
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Hence DO why I posed the question . Dillon often appears to know Coolmore news first and McManus is closely linked to them .
Binocular certainly looked in good form on New Year's Day . The problem with him is that you never know which Binocular is going to turn up - due to his well publicised repeated muscle problems.
In last year's CH AP did not shine holding him up way out the back apparently the aim being to pounce on HF after the last - only for ROR and Overturn to be allowed to get away from them off a moderate pace . Had Binocular not made a bad mistake at the last i suspect he would have beaten HF into fourth .
Binocular certainly looked in good form on New Year's Day . The problem with him is that you never know which Binocular is going to turn up - due to his well publicised repeated muscle problems.
In last year's CH AP did not shine holding him up way out the back apparently the aim being to pounce on HF after the last - only for ROR and Overturn to be allowed to get away from them off a moderate pace . Had Binocular not made a bad mistake at the last i suspect he would have beaten HF into fourth .
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Desert Orchid
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...hence why I pointed out they're short on everything bar one. Do they have info on every shorter-priced runner or they just not interested in taking bets on the race? Or sh1ting being hit?
If they were long on everything and short on Binocular, I could reasonably conclude 'they know'. As it is they're short on everything and long on ROR so maybe all they they know is that ROR won't win.
Aragorn, fair enough, I'm sure Tanlic will respond and speak for himself, I'm gonna say another cringeworthy thing - I think some of you feel inferior around the bloke.
Oh dear..... You're gonna have to explain this one to me Marble.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Nothing's black and white in racing Grassy but when it comes to the Champion Hurdle I very seldom sit on the fence.
It looks pretty straight forward this year....I pretty much see the race as a shoot out between Grandouet and Hurricane Fly with one possible exception
Donald MCcain's Cinders and Ashes. His form has been too bad to be true and it's reminiscent of how Alan King's Katchit showed very little until he beat that good horse of John Quinn's in the Kingwell.
Cinders and Ashes ran and won 3 times last season on unsuitably soft/heavy ground and although he won the Supreme. However he never appeared at Aintree, despite it being a happy hunting ground for the family, I imagine his trainer decided he'd had enough for the season.
Having had the runner up in the last 2 running he knows how hard a race it is to win. He knows as we all do that November through Jan the ground is more often than not testing and despite what it might look like on paper Cinder's and Ashes is not a soft ground horse. So why on earth would he want to have him fighting fit during that period? The chances were always high that the ground would be very testing and one hard race in unsuitable ground can take a horse months to get over.
He stopped like a horse that blew up at Kempton and McGuire took the foot of the pedal and allowed him to come home in his own time 12 lengths behind Darlan which led me to believe the horse wasn't anywhere near 100% but was there to keep his eye in and bring him a step close towards the real target
Come March I reckon you'll see the real Cinders and Ashes and he's the one the big 2 need to worry about most. He is one tough cookie and if he's there with them at the last like I expect him to be they'll know they've had a race.
I'd put Zakandar and Rock on Ruby ahead of Darlan and Binocular.
It looks pretty straight forward this year....I pretty much see the race as a shoot out between Grandouet and Hurricane Fly with one possible exception
Donald MCcain's Cinders and Ashes. His form has been too bad to be true and it's reminiscent of how Alan King's Katchit showed very little until he beat that good horse of John Quinn's in the Kingwell.
Cinders and Ashes ran and won 3 times last season on unsuitably soft/heavy ground and although he won the Supreme. However he never appeared at Aintree, despite it being a happy hunting ground for the family, I imagine his trainer decided he'd had enough for the season.
Having had the runner up in the last 2 running he knows how hard a race it is to win. He knows as we all do that November through Jan the ground is more often than not testing and despite what it might look like on paper Cinder's and Ashes is not a soft ground horse. So why on earth would he want to have him fighting fit during that period? The chances were always high that the ground would be very testing and one hard race in unsuitable ground can take a horse months to get over.
He stopped like a horse that blew up at Kempton and McGuire took the foot of the pedal and allowed him to come home in his own time 12 lengths behind Darlan which led me to believe the horse wasn't anywhere near 100% but was there to keep his eye in and bring him a step close towards the real target
Come March I reckon you'll see the real Cinders and Ashes and he's the one the big 2 need to worry about most. He is one tough cookie and if he's there with them at the last like I expect him to be they'll know they've had a race.
I'd put Zakandar and Rock on Ruby ahead of Darlan and Binocular.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Can I ask where you seen him on New Years day please?
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
:lol: Martin get a grip ffs Inferior yer backside if anyone feels inferior it's me stuck out in Thailand and dependent on Skype to find out what's happening
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
you don't read threads properly Tanlic..i already said its easy to judge some races by eye..and i didn't question the betfair pace.
don't always believe the commentators though..even they misjudge early pace..and they watch a few more races than you do
I did list 3 races for anyone with an eye to judge the pace of though..which you have just ignored..let me know your eye opinion of those 3 races..although by time i've got an answer you could have got a full database of times yourself
read my reply a few back..and tell me your opinion of those 3 races
i mentioned it 3 times just in case you missed it
cheeky begger i am
in fact..here they are again
Jackie Love 30/12/12 Lingfield
Sandy Lane 21/12/12 Lingfield
Mack's Sister 11/12/12 Lingfield
even slow or fast?
Geez anything for peace let me go watch the races and I will give you my honest opinion.