Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Assuming you're not on already what is the shortest price HF backers would take in March with all contenders present on let's say g/s?
Champion Hurdle 2013
- Thread starter On The Bridle
- Start date
granger
Senior Jockey
Good question.
Last year was painful and left scars
I'd take 3/1 on the day to answer your question
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Assuming Simonsig wins that might be available.
Sheikh
At the Start
Will that put Unaccompanied ahead of Quevega on the ratings ?
links781
Journeyman
3's is a fair price if he doesn't run again before.
he'll probably run in the irish champion as he did last year.
my worry with him is the last two times at cheltenham he boiled over a bit in the preliminaries. that and i think a searching pace tends to take the sting out of his turn of foot. could imagine nicholls putting a pacemaker in to make it the strongest stamina test possible for zarkandar.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I've maintained the Champion Hurdle will come down to straight fight between Grandouet and Hurricane Fly for months and I've seen nothing to change my mind.
Today told us very little as Hurricane Fly was never under any pressure as his 1/5 stating odds suggested would be the case but there's no denying he looks as good as ever.
Now I'd fully expect Grandouet to come out and win impressively and displace Darlan in the betting as those fickle bookies are very quick to cut anything on 4 legs that's fashionable and wins and Darlan has done nothing in my eyes that even comes remotely near what Hurricane Fly has achieved or Grandouet for that matter. When the latter beat Overturn in last seasons International it was faultless display whereas Darlan's win in the Xmas hurdle did very little for me as the race was a farce.
Today told us very little as Hurricane Fly was never under any pressure as his 1/5 stating odds suggested would be the case but there's no denying he looks as good as ever.
Now I'd fully expect Grandouet to come out and win impressively and displace Darlan in the betting as those fickle bookies are very quick to cut anything on 4 legs that's fashionable and wins and Darlan has done nothing in my eyes that even comes remotely near what Hurricane Fly has achieved or Grandouet for that matter. When the latter beat Overturn in last seasons International it was faultless display whereas Darlan's win in the Xmas hurdle did very little for me as the race was a farce.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Barry's was very complimentary about Darlan and SWC and John McCririck:lol:
Do you honestly think he's anywhere near as good as Grandouet? Ask yourself where Nicky first intended running him this season and when has he ever sent his best hurdlers to run in it?
The Xmas hurdle was an afterthought and was never his intended target it was Binocular's....... Darlan was going Greatwood, Betfair Champion Hurdle but adverse weather and Binocular not being fit changed that
Prior to that race Darlan was rated more than a stone behind Grandouet and we are to believe after winning a farce of a race he's now a better horse?
He wasn't even fancied to win the race and drifted all week which only confirms it never turned out to be the race they expected it to be
I think too many bookies and punters are looking at that white cap and green and gold stripes instead of what the horse actually achieved
Do you honestly think he's anywhere near as good as Grandouet? Ask yourself where Nicky first intended running him this season and when has he ever sent his best hurdlers to run in it?
The Xmas hurdle was an afterthought and was never his intended target it was Binocular's....... Darlan was going Greatwood, Betfair Champion Hurdle but adverse weather and Binocular not being fit changed that
Prior to that race Darlan was rated more than a stone behind Grandouet and we are to believe after winning a farce of a race he's now a better horse?
He wasn't even fancied to win the race and drifted all week which only confirms it never turned out to be the race they expected it to be
I think too many bookies and punters are looking at that white cap and green and gold stripes instead of what the horse actually achieved
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Aye Fist, but BG isn't a bookie or a punter, and is in a position to know the pecking order in Nicky Henderson's stable.
While a facile beating of a 155 horse isn't necessarily a Champion Hurdle winning performance, it's clear both BG and NH think the horse is still improving and, with 10 weeks to go, I wouldn't be writing his chances off nearly as quickly as you do.
While a facile beating of a 155 horse isn't necessarily a Champion Hurdle winning performance, it's clear both BG and NH think the horse is still improving and, with 10 weeks to go, I wouldn't be writing his chances off nearly as quickly as you do.
EC1
On a break
if the CH turns into a real stamina test..as it would if i wanted such as ROR or Zarkandar to win then HF and Grandouet will struggle imo
Can't see it being outside of Hurricane Fly, Grandouet and Zarkandar personally.
It was a good stamina test 2 years ago when Hurricane Fly won. The only issue I have with the fly is will he get there. Granted the Mullins team have been fantastic in keeping him together in the last couple of years, even if he wasn't himself in the second half of last season, but let's not forget how delicate a horse he proved to be in the past. I'd cack myself if had a decent ante post stake on him, but if he lines up on the day, in the form of yesterday, he'll be bang there no matter how the race is run.
It was a good stamina test 2 years ago when Hurricane Fly won. The only issue I have with the fly is will he get there. Granted the Mullins team have been fantastic in keeping him together in the last couple of years, even if he wasn't himself in the second half of last season, but let's not forget how delicate a horse he proved to be in the past. I'd cack myself if had a decent ante post stake on him, but if he lines up on the day, in the form of yesterday, he'll be bang there no matter how the race is run.
EC1
On a break
it wasn't a stamina test when HF won though..i'll dig the sectionals out and compare with last years at some point..they were two totally different tests
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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- Nov 14, 2006
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- 16,050
This will be my only contribution to the thread, insofar as Hurricane Fly's chances are concerned. Everyone knows I'm over the cliff with this one, and up to my chinkers again, and I've no intention of reprising all my usual arguments. I'll just say this.
As I shuffled around in my sackcloth-and-ashes during the early summer, trying to figure out what 'went wrong' with Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle, I came-up with a crack-pot theory. I did this because I felt I needed at least some justification - no matter how fanciful it might be - to back the horse ante-post for the next Champion Hurdle.
My crack-pot theory submits that Hurricane Fly is a particular kind of individual; being somewhat difficult to train, yet perhaps one needing a lot of racing to reach his peak.
In his CH-winning season, he had an uninterrupted run, and three runs under his belt before going on to win at Cheltenham. Conversely, he missed his original two engagements last season, and therefore went to Cheltenham with only one run under his belt. Certainly, on my reading of his form, there was a definite step-change in improvement with each of his runs in his Champion Hurdle season, and it could be argued that his closing win at Punchestown that year was a smidgen better than his Festival win too. So, my theory goes, he needs runs to hit top form, and he didn't get them lasty season.
They have had to train HF fairly lightly over the years, due to his fragile nature, and it's possible that he only hits peak fitness after 2 or 3 racecourse outings?
I guess I'm postulating that HF was perhaps not at 100% concert-pitch going into the last Champion Hurdle, and that we may see a different horse at Cheltenham next time, if everything goes to schedule on the run to March.
For the record, my AP book contains HF (5/1 & 6/1) and Darlan at 16/1. Thank you for this opportunity to get this off my chest - I feel cleansed.
I'm quite happy for you lot to dissect this for the rubbish it potentially is, but that's as much as I plan to say on the subject of Hurricane Fly.
PS. I'm quite happy to discuss Darlan, though given Tanlic's closeness to the yard, there seems little point reviewing the chances of such an apparent no-hoper.
Good luck to one and all.
As I shuffled around in my sackcloth-and-ashes during the early summer, trying to figure out what 'went wrong' with Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle, I came-up with a crack-pot theory. I did this because I felt I needed at least some justification - no matter how fanciful it might be - to back the horse ante-post for the next Champion Hurdle.
My crack-pot theory submits that Hurricane Fly is a particular kind of individual; being somewhat difficult to train, yet perhaps one needing a lot of racing to reach his peak.
In his CH-winning season, he had an uninterrupted run, and three runs under his belt before going on to win at Cheltenham. Conversely, he missed his original two engagements last season, and therefore went to Cheltenham with only one run under his belt. Certainly, on my reading of his form, there was a definite step-change in improvement with each of his runs in his Champion Hurdle season, and it could be argued that his closing win at Punchestown that year was a smidgen better than his Festival win too. So, my theory goes, he needs runs to hit top form, and he didn't get them lasty season.
They have had to train HF fairly lightly over the years, due to his fragile nature, and it's possible that he only hits peak fitness after 2 or 3 racecourse outings?
I guess I'm postulating that HF was perhaps not at 100% concert-pitch going into the last Champion Hurdle, and that we may see a different horse at Cheltenham next time, if everything goes to schedule on the run to March.
For the record, my AP book contains HF (5/1 & 6/1) and Darlan at 16/1. Thank you for this opportunity to get this off my chest - I feel cleansed.
I'm quite happy for you lot to dissect this for the rubbish it potentially is, but that's as much as I plan to say on the subject of Hurricane Fly.
PS. I'm quite happy to discuss Darlan, though given Tanlic's closeness to the yard, there seems little point reviewing the chances of such an apparent no-hoper.
Good luck to one and all.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
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- 25,024
Wasn't HF simply not right last season? I got a whisper very early last season that he might not even make it to the track for another year.
edgt
Senior Jockey
Simple as that Dessie.
He has now won 13 grade 1s, three short of Kauto Star.
Fragile delicate horses dont win so many races with such regularity.
He has now won 13 grade 1s, three short of Kauto Star.
Fragile delicate horses dont win so many races with such regularity.
Flemenstar
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2012
- Messages
- 85
There will be no change in the winners enclosure come March. Rock on Ruby will yet again be crowned Champion and the 10/1 available is a cracking price. I have no doubt he'll reverse form on better ground with Zarkander & Grandouet. Don't see how HF can reverse the form with him either? ran his race last year and came up short, now he's turning 9, i cannot see further improvement.
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
HF doesn't need to improve, at his best which he wasn't last year he is still good enough.
EC1
On a break
I'll try and show why i think HF lost the race last year but won the year before, from a pace angle..i'll try and keep it not too anoraky
the going corrected - even pace sectionals for the CH, measured from when each horse jumps the first hurdle ...not from flag fall..are, in seconds:
3rd Hurdle = 86.0
4th Hurdle = 109.9
5th Hurdle = 130.3
6th Hurdle = 165.6
7th Hurdle = 183.2
if you hit those times after ground correction you are running as near to even pace as possible
as an extreme example...Intersky Falcon ran way too fast early.
83.2
107.3
128.0
165.4
184.3
by the last hurdle he had burned himself and was at that point running 5 lengths slower than even pace after running 10+ lengths faster than ideal at each hurdle up to the fifth hurdle, where he slowed considerably, and was always going to be a sitting duck for Rooster Booster. His time after the last was very slow due to those early exertions.
Last year Rock On Ruby ran the following splits ..again after ground correction
86.1
109.9
130.4
165.7
182.6
these splits are near on perfect for a true 2 mile test over the CH trip..but notice by the last hurdle he had upped it to get there 0.6 seconds faster than ideal pace..this is where his stamina kicked in and he was stretching any horse that was lacking stamina after the last.... A horse lacking stamina would have paid for that 0.6 second injection between the last 2 flights..he was pouring pressure on at this point.
Last years race was a very evenly run race with a horse that stayed further being able to up that 2 mile pace at the end and outstay the oppo.
Contrast that to Hurricane Fly's win in 2011:
87.3
112.3
132.8
168.0
186.3
5 lengths slow at the 3rd...10 lengths slow at the 4th..5th & 6th
That year they went a lot slower early than this year's as its clear to see...this suited HF and brought his speed in to play later..whereas this year he was stretched and had that speed removed.
the going corrected - even pace sectionals for the CH, measured from when each horse jumps the first hurdle ...not from flag fall..are, in seconds:
3rd Hurdle = 86.0
4th Hurdle = 109.9
5th Hurdle = 130.3
6th Hurdle = 165.6
7th Hurdle = 183.2
if you hit those times after ground correction you are running as near to even pace as possible
as an extreme example...Intersky Falcon ran way too fast early.
83.2
107.3
128.0
165.4
184.3
by the last hurdle he had burned himself and was at that point running 5 lengths slower than even pace after running 10+ lengths faster than ideal at each hurdle up to the fifth hurdle, where he slowed considerably, and was always going to be a sitting duck for Rooster Booster. His time after the last was very slow due to those early exertions.
Last year Rock On Ruby ran the following splits ..again after ground correction
86.1
109.9
130.4
165.7
182.6
these splits are near on perfect for a true 2 mile test over the CH trip..but notice by the last hurdle he had upped it to get there 0.6 seconds faster than ideal pace..this is where his stamina kicked in and he was stretching any horse that was lacking stamina after the last.... A horse lacking stamina would have paid for that 0.6 second injection between the last 2 flights..he was pouring pressure on at this point.
Last years race was a very evenly run race with a horse that stayed further being able to up that 2 mile pace at the end and outstay the oppo.
Contrast that to Hurricane Fly's win in 2011:
87.3
112.3
132.8
168.0
186.3
5 lengths slow at the 3rd...10 lengths slow at the 4th..5th & 6th
That year they went a lot slower early than this year's as its clear to see...this suited HF and brought his speed in to play later..whereas this year he was stretched and had that speed removed.
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EC1
On a break
Warbler has some very interesting stats re HF on this subject..hopefully he will post em up.
Hurricane Fly is a very good horse
since Istabraq and Rooster Booster maybe the best 2 miles hurdler, but now is too old and the Champion Hurdle is not his main target
he is cmapaigned to win races in Ireland where plenty of money is on offer and the oposition is not so har as he will face in March
I think he can be placed but at the moment I prefer others for the big day
since Istabraq and Rooster Booster maybe the best 2 miles hurdler, but now is too old and the Champion Hurdle is not his main target
he is cmapaigned to win races in Ireland where plenty of money is on offer and the oposition is not so har as he will face in March
I think he can be placed but at the moment I prefer others for the big day
EC1
On a break
HF isn't too old imo..he just needs a speed test to show his best
granger
Senior Jockey
I dont say Mullins doesnt want to win the race
what I say , it is one of his races but not the main one and his course record is nothing specisal
better horses than him has not been able to win it twice and I think he will be beaten
what I say , it is one of his races but not the main one and his course record is nothing specisal
better horses than him has not been able to win it twice and I think he will be beaten
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Chandler still quoting Go Native and Spirit Son in the ante-post market. Verging on the fraudulent if you ask me.