Champion Hurdle 2013

BennyB said:
On what are you basing that DO? I'm not disagreeing, just interested in how you arrived at the conclusion.
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Based on what I wrote when I evaluated the race on Monday:

2.35 (11-7)
Get Me Out Of Here 163
Darlan 159p
Countrywide Flame 158o +
Cinders And Ashes 157
Raya Star 157p
Dodging Bullets 152+p
Mad Moose 147?
Punjabi 145o (((161)))

This is a **** poor renewal but has the potential to throw up some interest for the future. Get Me Out Of Here is an admirable, solid performer but would only have a chance of Grade 1 success in a weak field such as this. However, Darlan is one of the horses in the race with real potential, with most of the top second season hurdlers improving about 10lbs for their summer off and with McCoy opting for him over the former he is clearly expected to show that improvement. Countrywide Flame was visually impressive in the Fighting Fifth at the start of December but that race looked to fall apart. Expect Cinders And Ashes to leave that form behind but don’t bank on him reversing it. Raya Star is another admirable handicapper with the potential to compete at the top level while Dodging Bullets still has a bit to go. Punjabi has had a couple of years off but even his best form of the season before leaves him vulnerable. Darlan is the only sensible call but might not be much value.

They are my own figures and they fall well short of proper CH class. Darlan improved enough, as expected, but I allowed myself to be swayed off him by the info that he'd been withdrawn from previous races on account of the ground.
 
Yeah lets not go there again individuals win races not trends.

I'm not sure Darlan has improved enough to be thinking Champion Hurdle, I believe he just about kicks everything into touch at home and that race turned out more like a 7 furlong piece of work than it resembled a Champion Hurdle and is no more a guide to whether he has improved enough or not.

He's gone through the ground ok but at the speed they were going that's hardly surprising. They were a massive 8 seconds slower than River Maigue and usually it's the other way round.

To make him favourite for the Champion Hurdle based on what turned out to be a 4 furlong sprint is total madness IMO. Let's not forget when he was asked to find of a strong pace in the Supreme he floundered and I saw nothing yesterday that would make me think he wont do so again in the Champion Hurdle proper.

Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle winners do win Champion Hurdles but I doubt if either will this season.
 
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Tanlic said:
Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle winners do win Champion Hurdles but I doubt if either will this season.
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While CF probably isn't good enough, Darlan could well be a similar standard to those that have achieved it in the past.
 
I was sweet on Darlan yesterday,he has a chance and will improve on better ground.I have said it before but they need to be running Oscar whiskey in this as it would have a massive chance.Im sitting on some vouchers on Darlan at tidy prices but from what I have seen in the last month I keep returning to The fly.At the moment I see him,Grandouet and Darlan fighting it out,not necessarily in that order.
 
I like Darlan, but his price is now wrong. Wouldn't Hurricane Fly and Grandouet have won just as easily off such a slow pace?
 
links781 said:
I was sweet on Darlan yesterday,he has a chance and will improve on better ground.I have said it before but they need to be running Oscar whiskey in this as it would have a massive chance.Im sitting on some vouchers on Darlan at tidy prices but from what I have seen in the last month I keep returning to The fly.At the moment I see him,Grandouet and Darlan fighting it out,not necessarily in that order.
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OW will almost certainly run in the World Hurdle. Darlan, Binocular and Grandouet remain Henderson's intended Champion team.
 
You have to ask what is the problem with Cinders and Ashes? He didn't just beat Darlan in the Supreme he laughed at him and but for a mistake at the last would have won even easier.

Considering Darlan was thought mature enough by Nicky to run in the Betfair Hurdle you wouldn't expect he'd improve any more than Cinders and Ashes would

Mind you Donald McCain only paid 4,500 for Cinders and Ashes and maybe he got the best we are ever likely to see out of him and he simply hasn't trained on but that wasn't the same horse who won at Cheltenham we saw on Boxing Day.

He is the one horse who could make everyone look a bit silly come March as horses often do............I however am still with Grandouet and fear Hurricane Fly above all.
 
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You would have thought Cinders would improve on firmer ground but doesn't look to have trained on as much as Darlan.maybe there's something amiss with the horse.
 
Tanlic said:
You have to ask what is the problem with Cinders and Ashes? He didn't just beat Darlan in the Supreme he laughed at him and but for a mistake at the last would have won even easier.

Considering Darlan was thought mature enough by Nicky to run in the Betfair Hurdle you wouldn't expect he'd improve any more than Cinders and Ashes would

Mind you Donald McCain only paid 4,500 for Cinders and Ashes and maybe he got the best we are ever likely to see out of him and he simply hasn't trained on but that wasn't the same horse who won at Cheltenham we saw on Boxing Day.

He is the one horse who could make everyone look a bit silly come March as horses often do............I however am still with Grandouet and fear Hurricane Fly above all.
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Son Of Flicka didn't do a tap last season before the Coral Hurdle. It's too early to be giving up on CAA and he might be grossly overpriced on the big day. Not at all saying I fancy him, just fancy he might return to form by then.
 
Maybe he's getting CAA's mark down just in case he's not good enough for the big one. I suspect the ground might be the issue, though. Two runs in awful ground are easily forgiven if the horse hates it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Son Of Flicka didn't do a tap last season before the Coral Hurdle. It's too early to be giving up on CAA and he might be grossly overpriced on the big day. Not at all saying I fancy him, just fancy he might return to form by then.
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DO
the difference
is Son Of Flika was preparing his handicap mark, and not building up for a big race like the champion hurdle
 
Desert Orchid said:
Maybe he's getting CAA's mark down just in case he's not good enough for the big one. I suspect the ground might be the issue, though. Two runs in awful ground are easily forgiven if the horse hates it.
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i mentioned before the FF i don't think he wants slow ground..the races he won on slow were easy races..his best form is on better ground
 
links781 said:
I was sweet on Darlan yesterday,he has a chance and will improve on better ground.I have said it before but they need to be running Oscar whiskey in this as it would have a massive chance.Im sitting on some vouchers on Darlan at tidy prices but from what I have seen in the last month I keep returning to The fly.At the moment I see him,Grandouet and Darlan fighting it out,not necessarily in that order.
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The fly is the one to beat for me.
 
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