Champion Hurdle 2014

Hope he does go to Kempton, as he hasn't an earthly of living with MTOY around that track, no matter how he's ridden.
 
Aye, with no hurdles to break the pace.
Agree with EC, he doesn't have the speed for a CH, and beating other slow horses over 2m does nothing to alter that view.
 
hezz said:
I havent seen today's race, but I'll watch it when I can.

For me, to say TNO won't place in the CH is complete nonsense. No way there's 3 better horses out there right now.

I'm a big fan n think he'll take all d beating in march. Worthy fav.
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better in what way?

there might be 5 better than him on the day..what do you think today's form is worth though?..100/1 shot 3rd...poor time

tbh..its possibly nonsense to talk about horse's in terms of absolute merit..particularly when you don't really know the real merit of THO yet..has run in two egg and spooners this season..and is 3/1 for the cream hurdling race of the season...on the back of those two efforts...are you sure about this?

are you sure he isn't a 2m4 furlong horse?..it took him long enough to pass another 2m4 horse today
 
That's ridiculous about the 100/1 shot. It was beaten 12 lengths. Are you really taking that literally? Suppose he would become a ch contender if it was 18 lengths or something?

Also "no hurdles to break pace". Absolutely reinforces mr frisks view rather than opposes it

I'm not hanging my hat on this horse but he opposition to him seems a bit ott at times.
 
clivex said:
That's ridiculous about the 100/1 shot. It was beaten 12 lengths. Are you really taking that literally? Suppose he would become a ch contender if it was 18 lengths or something?

Also "no hurdles to break pace". Absolutely reinforces mr frisks view rather than opposes it

I'm not hanging my hat on this horse but he opposition to him seems a bit ott at times.
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ridiculous?..why?

12 lengths isn't a lot over 2 miles..its not like its 5f...at 5f it would be a 4 length beating...so if in a Group 1 a sprinter beat a 96 horse 4 lengths...would you think the winner is champion sprinter material?

jumps road is rated 131..+12 lengths + 8lbs = 151 for todays win...3/1 fav for a CH?

TNO may be a monster at 2m4f..but at 2 miles he isn't 3/1 material for a CH
 
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clivex said:
Also "no hurdles to break pace". Absolutely reinforces mr frisks view rather than opposes it
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Mr Frisk's view is clearly as misinformed as your own. How many Champion Bumper winners subsequently show the speed to win Champion Hurdles?
 
Ok. Ridiculous was a bit strong but I just take the view that over certain margins it's down to how the race has finished rather than strict interpretation. I'm just not going to rubbish form on that basis. Out of sight margins are just that

Yes maybe he is better at 20f but so have been a few ch winners. Off top of head and ready to be corrected, Morley street, brave inca and rooster perhaps? (Ready to be corrected). The underrated hardy eustace was good at the distance too
 
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I agree Clive that 2.5 mile winners are suited to the CH..but to me that would be occasional 2.5 mile winners,,not horses that were regularly campaigned at that trip as novices. Basically a staple diet 2 mile horse that can stretch out to 2.5 ...rather than a 2.5 miler that gets away with running at 2 miles against certain oppo

as i said..a CH winner should be running 2 miles...when evenly run..faster than a 3yo hurdler..if he doesn't then i would say you have watched an under par performance for 2 miles for a CH contender

imo todays race was between two horses short of their best trip...and one of them had to win...the time and proximity of 3rd horse reinforces that.

I don't really see that 12 lengths is an "out of sight" beating at 2 miles...its 12lbs

at 5f..it certainly is an out of sight beating..36lbs?
 
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I see it as often out of sight ec because it really depends how race finishes. But what NO did today was fumble a couple of times. Again I'm too lazy to look but hats the exception with him rather than the rule?

Euro. Maybe but for me it's not a given now after that reappearance
 
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The only thing you can take away from the race is fu*ck-all.

It's totally nuetral in terms of TNO's Champion Hurdle chance (still one of likelier winners, imo), and cutting his odds on the back of this outing is verging on larceny.

As is the fact that no bookie appears ready to push Our Connor; despite some apparently good performances from the others at the head of the market, the fact an injury kept him out of the Morgiana, and that there's been little real news about how well his recovery is progressing.

They are taking the pi*ss.
 
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Grassy, according to the Stable Tour Dessie Hughes says he is in mighty form and is ready to put on a show at Leopardstown.....he also maintains Minsk will progress and win graded races over fences....:blink:
 
clivex said:
Ok. Ridiculous was a bit strong but I just take the view that over certain margins it's down to how the race has finished rather than strict interpretation. I'm just not going to rubbish form on that basis. Out of sight margins are just that

Yes maybe he is better at 20f but so have been a few ch winners. Off top of head and ready to be corrected, Morley street, brave inca and rooster perhaps? (Ready to be corrected). The underrated hardy eustace was good at the distance too
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Istabraq and Hardy Eustace both won what is now the Neptune. Coming that novice route is certainly no hindrance to TNO's chances.
 
Talking about how impressive other horses would have been in a trial isn't an argument for me. Maybe for the cutting of his price but not as regards his CH credentials. The CH will be run at a helter skelter pace, which will play to tno's strengths.

This horse reminds me of Peddlers Cross, and with HF likely past his best, I can't c anything having the class to get past him in March.
 
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You're reaching with d last 2, we haven't seen Our Conor this season, MTOY is top drawer, I respect him a hell of a lot and would be my selection at this stage outside of d new one, and while i absolutely love hurricane fly, I think this is a year too far.
 
One not to forget until at least his next run is Un De Sceaux, his two wins may have been in heavy ground but the times of those runs were seriously good (Punchestown run comparable to the Fly's Champion hurdle win same day) and he never settled in either of his races, imagine if he does settle.

Not owned by Ricci but he was very keen to say after Annie Power's win in the Ascot Hurdle not to forget Un De Sceaux and how highly rated he is at the yard.
 
Agree that he's much like Peddlers Cross, but he's another that ultimately lacked the speed to win a CH. Every year we see these high-profile classy middle distance horses trained for shorter - unsurprising, considering the disparity in prize money - and the fact is, the great majority of them fail.
Nothing against The New One as a horse, he's undoubtedly one of the best around, but he showed his vulnerability when lacking the speed to pass Zarkandar at Aintree, and wasn't all that impressive against him yesterday - even though the drop back in distance and nothing pace should have been in his favour. Thrashing an out of sorts ROR (himself an embryonic World Hurdle candidate) around a sharp Kempton 2m doesn't cut it either, and (imo) he's yet to show the 2m speed to win a Champion Hurdle.
Maybe he will, but I'd bet against it.
 
Fair argument Reet, but improvement and d pace of a CH personally give me trust in this animal as the most likely winner at d moment. I have a small double with him and briar hill for d Albert Bartlett, but outside of that I haven't got involved as the CH market is so volatile and value is generally available right up to race day.

I just believe Peddlers Cross was beaten (to a pulp) by a class class animal in Hurricane Fly. As of right now, I don't see anything in his league to spoil d party.

Long way to go, but he's a worthy fav right now imo and a place lay would be a guaranteed loss, assuming injury doesn't spoil his chances in the meantime.
 
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