Champion Hurdle 2014

reet hard said:
MTOY is a speed horse, and what Timeform see as a lack of resolve was nothing more than him not lasting home up the Cheltenham hill.
Might have the same problem again in this season's CH, but can't see him beaten beforehand, and I'd include the likes of Jezki and HF amongst those he'll be too sharp for.
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Don't know about that Reet.You may or may not remember me pointing out that he wasn't one to trust if it came to a fight before Cheltenham came around.

I don't think it's a case that he's not genuine it's more of a physical thing.He can't seem to get it together when put under extreme pressure.

He showed signs of it very early in his career when going down in a bumper to Up To Something. He was very awkward looking again when beaten by the New One and was all at sea behind Chatterbox.

In a normal year I'd agree a horse like him could easily run up a sequence but the Fighting Fifth has a tough look to it this year.

Unless I am missing something NTD intends to run The New One ? Ok it's not Cheltenham but MTOY 5/4 The New One 4/1 ? surely the course can't make that much difference if the Champion Hurdle betting is to be believed?

If MTOY gets into a fight against a good one on any course he'll come out 2nd best IMO and they don't come much tougher than The New One.

I think if you look closely you'll find if he wins it's always when he's under no sort of pressure......I can't see him having an easy time at Newcastle plus Nicky Henderson will want to make sure he doesn't have a hard race first time up if conditions underfoot are testing.

You could be right about him not been beaten before March but he could just as easily start his campaign with a loss
 
Tanlic said:
Unless I am missing something NTD intends to run The New One ? Ok it's not Cheltenham but MTOY 5/4 The New One 4/1 ? surely the course can't make that much difference if the Champion Hurdle betting is to be believed?
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twister has said the new one's next run is likely to be the international hurdle at cheltenham. hence the pricing.

MTOY just needs to learn how to settle and be a bit more fluent at his hurdles. if he does, he could bear the weight of my money come march.
 
Cheers James........He's definitely a bit keen to get on with it when he runs but I don't know if I'd want him to lose that trait. tbh I don't think it much matters as he simply isn't good enough to win a Champion Hurdle. He traveled well to the last in the Supreme but you need to be something out of the ordinary to be able to do that in a Champion Hurdle.

He failed to find in the Supreme despite given every chance to do so. It is likely like as it is in most Champion Hurdles that the pressure applied after jumping the 3rd will get just about everything at it, the winner included. For me he'll find that very hard to cope with.

I'd take a close look at him in the Supreme he hold his head like a carnival rocking horse when asked to quicken. I couldn't have him at twice his current odds in a win market.

Wouldn't put anyone off backing him AP and laying him off later as he is likely to win a couple of trials if the likes of The New One avoid taking him on but come the big day I expect the bubble to be well and truly burst. If he couldn't pass Champagne Fever I doubt if he'll have the guns to beat all of the top 3 should they turn up in good form.
 
Plan is to send him over fences, I believe.

He's been working very well, and schooling great at home. Although Pitman says he is keen not to get too far ahead of hiimself, he has laid out the following plan:

2m4f novice chase Hennessy meeting.
Feltham
Scilly Isles Novice Chase
RSA Chase
3m Novice at Aintree
3m Novice at Punchestown

Followed by a Betfair - King George - Aon - Gold Cup tilt the following year.
 
he's a worthy favourite but i think he'll get done by MTOY round kempton if he goes there.

will be interesting to see odds.
 
Had a rant on Twitter about sheep bookies shortening horses for no apparent reason and lost two followers. ******* fan boys.
 
they went a really decent pace there..so no excuse for a slow overall time..and yet they ran just about the same time as the 3yo race earlier..TNO isn't a CH winner on that showing...should have been a lot quicker than the 3yo race to be anywhere near CH level

won't place in March imo

for reference Khyber Kim ran this race 8 seconds faster than the 3yo race..and even he was beaten at Cheltenham
 
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They were fighting to the line in that previous race. That is bound to minimise the time but either way, that alone could never rule anything out for me.

What bothered me was the lack of decent hurdling at stages. He's been fine up to now but a run at xmas might not be a bad thing at all. There's too much cotton wool thinking these days and nothing wrong with experience

He shouldn't have shortened in the market
 
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I havent seen today's race, but I'll watch it when I can.

For me, to say TNO won't place in the CH is complete nonsense. No way there's 3 better horses out there right now.

I'm a big fan n think he'll take all d beating in march. Worthy fav.
 
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