Champion Hurdle 2014

Grasshopper said:
Timeform wonder it MTOY will have the stomach for a scrap, Hamm. :cool:
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I hate these kind of summations! He battled really, really well, just got beaten by a better horse on the day who was given a better ride.

Don't you find that in sports analysis the winner always seems to be near perfect and those who don't must have a huge defect, even if the margins are so close that this kind of analysis is madness? It's often shown most in football analysis.
 
Hamm said:
I hate these kind of summations! He battled really, really well, just got beaten by a better horse on the day who was given a better ride.
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Again, I'm open-minded about it. However, if he was in a business-end battle with a horse like TNO, I think I'd probably want to be on the latter of the pair.
 
I don't see much difference between the battling showed by MTOY v Champagne Fever or TNO v Zarkandar?
 
There isn't, but there is a perception about MTOY that he's a bridle horse - it's the year's Sprinter Sacre won't get up the hill.
 
Hamm said:
I hate these kind of summations! He battled really, really well, just got beaten by a better horse on the day who was given a better ride.

Don't you find that in sports analysis the winner always seems to be near perfect and those who don't must have a huge defect, even if the margins are so close that this kind of analysis is madness? It's often shown most in football analysis.
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Very good point.
 
Watched it again and agree a little with grass. It's not conclusive but there is a sense of it as I thought on day. Backing him didn't help I suppose.
 
They all still have The Fly to beat. TNO impressive but he's beaten a one paced horse today. Our Conor was nothing but a fitness session..
 
I think HF doesn't run anywhere near his best at Cheltenham, he's getting older now and will be overtaken relatively easily by most of those near the head of the market. 10s wouldn't tempt me as I just can't see him winning.
 
If he remains unbeaten in Ireland (3 race prep) will he likely be overtaken in the market?

He is getting older, but no evidence yet to say he is on the wane. Remember he has only been beaten once in last 14 starts
 
Hamm said:
I think HF doesn't run anywhere near his best at Cheltenham, he's getting older now and will be overtaken relatively easily by most of those near the head of the market. 10s wouldn't tempt me as I just can't see him winning.
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Until we see a decline on the track he remains the one to beat. Of the rest i would be on TNO (but not at todays price)
 
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Timeform have given TNO a 170 for the race today. Same rating as the Fly got for Chelt and Punch last season. :blink:
 
That's as bad as one of the bookies making him 7/2 favourite. Every year we get this crap when these would be Champion Hurdles start popping up.

But for the demise of Darlan Rock On Ruby wouldn't have one a race last season. On his first outing he was beaten 8 lengths by Zarkandar and he's certainly never going to be winning a Champion Hurdle.

This race for me has about as much bearing on the Champion Hurdle as a Hamilton seller would. Rock On Ruby did finish 2nd in the Champion Hurdle but he'd was probably 100 gallops fitter than he was yesterday.

The New One for me is already fully exposed and looks more of a stayer for the future as he does a Champion Hurdle horse. I wouldn't have taken the 7/1 he was never mind 7/2 which is a joke.

Taking it they all turn up on the day the Irish have this Champion Hurdle in the bag with Hurricane Fly Our Conor and Jezki flying the flag.

Jezki looks the least likely of the 3 to succeed and Our Conor may have been somewhat flattered at Cheltenham but they both have better chances of success than the New One IMO.

For some reason people worry way too much about Hurricane Fly not turning up. There is absolutely nothing to say that will be the case. He has shown no signs of deteriorating and like old Sea Pigeon he seems to have retained his speed as he reaches double figures.

He's actually a very similar typeto what Sea Pigeon was and I'd bank on him turning up fit and well with the main and probably only danger being Our Conor. We won't need to wait long to find out how well he is as WM is looking to run him next month.
 
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MTOY is a speed horse, and what Timeform see as a lack of resolve was nothing more than him not lasting home up the Cheltenham hill.
Might have the same problem again in this season's CH, but can't see him beaten beforehand, and I'd include the likes of Jezki and HF amongst those he'll be too sharp for.
 
Cant agree with that reet. Watch race again. But i still think hes a likely winner.

Why is jezki being touted? Need soft which is hardly guaranteed at the festival and was easily put in place by MTOY.

I also dont get how anyone can blithely claim the ROR was not fit yesterday when all the evidence both visual and rhetorical was the opposite

Yesterdays win was all you would want to see from a contender. Writing it down doesnt make sense
 
clivex said:
Why is jezki being touted? Need soft which is hardly guaranteed at the festival and was easily put in place by MTOY.
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Clive, Jezki would probably not have won but might have ended up around a length behind MTOY if not making a mess of the last.

Also, don't confuse he likes it soft with he needs it soft (no evidence for the latter at present).

Also, it was soft on the first day of last season's festival.
 
Digger said:
Until we see a decline on the track he remains the one to beat. Of the rest i would be on TNO (but not at todays price)
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If you take this approach the boat will already have sailed when his descent starts. I am pretty confident he will not win the Champion Hurdle this season, even if he might do well in Ireland (though I would fancy Jezki against him from Xmas, and maybe before).
 
Hamm said:
If you take this approach the boat will already have sailed when his descent starts. I am pretty confident he will not win the Champion Hurdle this season, even if he might do well in Ireland (though I would fancy Jezki against him from Xmas, and maybe before).
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Well, yeah - but plenty have been "confident" he wouldn't have won any Champion Hurdles.

Given triple-Champion Hurdlers are a rare beast indeed - let alone one who lost and regained the title - puffing the chest-out and opposing Hurricane Fly this time around, isn't really all that bold a position to adopt.

Throw enough arrows....
 
Oooh, you are coming across like I have insulted your own son.. :p

If he is a great, great horse, he has every chance of winning. I feel he is a very, very good horse, but there are horses this year who I feel will beat him at a course where I think his form has been below his best in Ireland.
 
granger said:
Didn't meet the last well and that was his goose cooked Clive. He also had no prep when it looked like he needed one.

Also sluiched up the next time out at Punchestown. Not one to write off for me
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Take point and that follow up was something to see, but was CF up to scratch that day? Cant recall..or be bothered to look

A lots of ifs and buts but just sense he wouldnt have won even if he met last well.
 
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