Champion Hurdle 2014

frontrunner said:
Anybody writing of Jezki for a top 3 finish is brave, 12/1 is very tempting for e/way bets.
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Yeah I agree Brian, he is a bit of value now he is 12's, I understand why plenty dismiss Jezki but putting it mildly I don't think he has been made best use of so far, a more enterprising ride and his stamina will see him in the mix, he is in my mind three to four points bigger than I thought he would be for what will probably be a five horse race (assuming UDS & Annie dont run).
 
Digger said:
HF struggle for pace? Yep thats always been a problem for the horse.. :D
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Has been in two of his champion runs Dig. Got away with one, not the other. Most certainly won't get away with it this year :whistle:

You'll convince yourself eventually :D
 
Kauto Abu said:
Racing UK done a very fascinating comparison on split screen between the Supreme and the Champion which highlights that fact. In the Supreme Champagne Fever went off very quickly and was a good 3-4 seconds ahead of the champion pace for the first 3 hurdles. In contrast Rock on Ruby took them to the first four hurdles at a more sedate pace before cranking it up big time. He had Ruby niggling at the fly in or around the time Grandouet hit the deck. By the time they came down the hill approaching home ROR had started to empty such was the gallop he had set. The Fly breezed past and powered up the hill.
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Great post Kauto but that's not how the two races were run. I have run these two races side by side from every angle you can think of.

They jumped the first hurdle virtually upsides, the Supreme was 1 second faster to the second but from there on The Champion hurdle pace was a second faster over each of the next two hurdles, two seconds faster to the 5th, 3 seconds faster between the next.

The pace then slowed to 2 seconds faster to the 7th after which the Champion pace starts to collapse. The Supreme pace is 1 second faster from two out to the last and they are 2 seconds faster from the last to the line.

The Fly came off the bridle momentarily to close the gap as they approached the flight Grandouet fell at but Ruby immediately puts him back on the bridle as they climb and crest the rise round the bend.

He remains on the bridle all the way to the last before he puts the race to bed. The 2 seconds up the hill to line equates to about 5 Lengths the 3 second lead in the middle of the race was nearer 12 lengths.

IMO MTOY would have beaten Champagne Fever had they had the same paced race.
 
Maxbet said:
Great post Kauto but that's not how the two races were run. I have run these two races side by side from every angle you can think of.

They jumped the first hurdle virtually upsides, the Supreme was 1 second faster to the second but from there on The Champion hurdle pace was a second faster over each of the next two hurdles, two seconds faster to the 5th, 3 seconds faster between the next.

The pace then slowed to 2 seconds faster to the 7th after which the Champion pace starts to collapse. The Supreme pace is 1 second faster from two out to the last and they are 2 seconds faster from the last to the line.

The Fly came off the bridle momentarily to close the gap as they approached the flight Grandouet fell at but Ruby immediately puts him back on the bridle as they climb and crest the rise round the bend.

He remains on the bridle all the way to the last before he puts the race to bed. The 2 seconds up the hill to line equates to about 5 Lengths the 3 second lead in the middle of the race was nearer 12 lengths.

IMO MTOY would have beaten Champagne Fever had they had the same paced race.
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Thanks Maxbet. It's been almost a year since I watched that on Racing UK but a work colleague and I were talking about this the other day, he having watched it on Sky Plus recently, and I was relying on his time figures to each hurdle. Fair play to you for claryfing this. It does tell the same story tho and I wanted to highlight the fact that Rubys ride on Champagne Fever was genius, having slowed the pace early before cranking it up again. That's the telling fact behind MTOY getting beat that day in my opinion. The notion that he didn't come up the hill or was out battled doesn't stick with me. He came up the hill and battled all the way to the line.
 
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links781 said:
Has any other race or horse caused so much divided opinion.....
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That's the beauty of horse racing isn't it. So many opinions based on fact yet inevitably most of those facts will end up being blown out of the water. One thing's for sure, which ever horse wins this race will have earned it and I hope everyone will recognise that at the end of the day. The winner will have certainly earned the right to be called Champion Hurdler. The greatest prize of all.
 
http://horses.about.com/od/understandinghorses/a/Comparing-Horse-To-Human-Age.htm

Hurricane Fly has aged 5 months since his last race and would be approximately 35 1/2 human years old.

Our Conor has reached adulthood and physical maturity - the 5 months (human equivalent) will be of greater benefit to Our Conor.

2m over hurdles would be the equivalent of a jumps sprint race I would suppose and some human sprinters have won good races at 35+ yo, however this is rare and exceptional circumstances.

Hurricane Fly is an exceptional horse and if anything beats him it will be age, thats why I'm against him and for Our Conor. If the champ wins I will acknowledge him as an all time great, which he is already of course.
 
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swedish chef said:
http://horses.about.com/od/understandinghorses/a/Comparing-Horse-To-Human-Age.htm

Hurricane Fly has aged 5 months since his last race and would be approximately 35 1/2 human years old.

Our Conor has reached adulthood and physical maturity - the 5 months (human equivalent) will be of greater benefit to Our Conor.

2m over hurdles would be the equivalent of a jumps sprint race I would suppose and some human sprinters have won good races at 35+ yo, however this is rare and exceptional circumstances.

Hurricane Fly is an exceptional horse and if anything beats him it will be age, thats why I'm against him and for Our Conor. If the champ wins I will acknowledge him as an all time great, which he is already of course.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_world_records_in_masters_athletics


Think again
 
Jumper's Bumper meeting at Kempton on Sunday, which might save Nicky having to choreograph MTOY's prep with his own horses?
 
I'd say they'll gallop him at home. They done similar with Simonsig last year and Grandouet too because of the frost. As regards Jockey, I'd be extremely surprised if McCoy didn't partner My Tent Or Yours.

Fairly similar to last year prior to the supreme. "I don't know who'll I'll ride. I'll make that decision the day before. Both horses are similar enough" and he knowing full well he'd be on MTOY. That's the diplomatic stance, he has trainers to keep on the right side of. He can't very well come out and say, "well Jezki was beaten by Captain Cee Bee last time and doesn't hurdle well enough so I'm definitely not riding him in the champion". Then 2 weeks later something happens MTOY (touch wood it doesn't) and he's back singing Jezki's praises. The fact alone that he's got 2 choices in the race means he wont declare his decision......publicly anyway, 'til the death ala Ruby Walsh when Kauto & Denman clashed. He has the exact same decision to make in the World hurdle between More of That & At Fishers Cross. He'll know who he wants to ride in it now but publicly wont say it until a day or two before.

The fact there that he said Jezki would have an ew chance if tactics were changed in his latest blog says exactly what he's thinking. Since when does AP go out to have an ew chance. The man's a born winner.

He picked MTOY last year. He comprehensively beat Jezki then and his reputation has been more than enhanced since then.
 
I'd say they'll gallop him at home. They done similar with Simonsig last year and Grandouet too because of the frost. As regards Jockey, I'd be extremely surprised if McCoy didn't partner My Tent Or Yours.

Fairly similar to last year prior to the supreme. "I don't know who'll I'll ride. I'll make that decision the day before. Both horses are similar enough" and he knowing full well he'd be on MTOY. That's the diplomatic stance, he has trainers to keep on the right side of. He can't very well come out and say, "well Jezki was beaten by Captain Cee Bee last time and doesn't hurdle well enough so I'm definitely not riding him in the champion". Then 2 weeks later something happens MTOY (touch wood it doesn't) and he's back singing Jezki's praises. The fact alone that he's got 2 choices in the race means he wont declare his decision......publicly anyway, 'til the death ala Ruby Walsh when Kauto & Denman clashed. He has the exact same decision to make in the World hurdle between More of That & At Fishers Cross. He'll know who he wants to ride in it now but publicly wont say it until a day or two before.

The fact there that he said Jezki would have an ew chance if tactics were changed in his latest blog says exactly what he's thinking. Since when does AP go out to have an ew chance. The man's a born winner.

He picked MTOY last year. He comprehensively beat Jezki then and his reputation has been more than enhanced since then.
 
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