Champion Hurdle 2014

I wouldn't worry too much about MTOY going straight there. He'll be fit enough, and if UDS runs then he'll settle soon enough.
 
Frankel said:
I wouldn't worry too much about MTOY going straight there. He'll be fit enough, and if UDS runs then he'll settle soon enough.
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I've been a big fan of MTOY and have him at marginally bigger prices than the 6/1 Ladbrokes are offering today - I also have more than a saver on Hurricane Fly - but IMHO a pacesetter isn't what MTOY needs to settle as I feel that while he'll no doubt settle better off a strong pace, it could place a question mark over his stamina.

It's a fairly big if should he not turn out again prior to March, but IF he settles on his own accord and the pace isn't too strong then he will take some beating.

The thing about this race is that while there are a handful of potential winners, there aren't any that could adapt to any style of race. Hurricane Fly perhaps the most versatile but twice he's looked slightly short of pace coming down the hill.

That said HF, to come back on the bridle ala last year and just repel the strong travelling MTOY for me but I'd be happy whatever the result if they fight out the finish.
 
Wilson

MTOY is a massive player in this especially if the ground is not too soft. I think the likely fast pace will find him out after the last. I know Kempton is a different track, but he did at least put his head down and fight. Cheltenham might just find him out though - we shall see.

As for Hurricane Fly, I really think he may struggle if the pace is quick. You potentially have UDS making the running with Our Connor there to take it up if the pace relents, and The New One and MTOY stalking. I think the Fly will be beat before turning for home especially if the word 'good' is anywhere in the description. There will be no respite in the pace for him to get back in to it imho. I'm am trying to whisper this as the fly foot soldiers are out on patrol.

Should be a cracking race and one I can't wait to see.
 
Frankel said:
Wilson

MTOY is a massive player in this especially if the ground is not too soft. I think the likely fast pace will find him out after the last. I know Kempton is a different track, but he did at least put his head down and fight. Cheltenham might just find him out though - we shall see.

As for Hurricane Fly, I really think he may struggle if the pace is quick. You potentially have UDS making the running with Our Connor there to take it up if the pace relents, and The New One and MTOY stalking. I think the Fly will be beat before turning for home especially if the word 'good' is anywhere in the description. There will be no respite in the pace for him to get back in to it imho. I'm am trying to whisper this as the fly foot soldiers are out on patrol.

Should be a cracking race and one I can't wait to see.
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HF stays and is the quickest horse in the race quick pace isn't an issue, he switched off last year and was quickly back on the bridle travelling all over the rest so getting caught for pace I'll never agree with. If good is in the description he just is ridden closer to the pace and doesn't leave himself too much to do, Ruby has learned.

I expect a quick pace to hamper TNO as he isn't as quick as the rest and his jumping will be found out if the pace is quick as he will be off the bridle coming down the hill hitting hurdles. MTOYS, I agree with you that getting the head down in Kempton is different than Cheltenham and this to catch him out. I'm not going to bother with the rest but expect OC to be the biggest danger
 
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Different horse.He's come on even further this year than last.I wouldnt believe a word that come out of the stable though.
 
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Frankel said:
Wilson

MTOY is a massive player in this especially if the ground is not too soft. I think the likely fast pace will find him out after the last. I know Kempton is a different track, but he did at least put his head down and fight. Cheltenham might just find him out though - we shall see.

As for Hurricane Fly, I really think he may struggle if the pace is quick. You potentially have UDS making the running with Our Connor there to take it up if the pace relents, and The New One and MTOY stalking. I think the Fly will be beat before turning for home especially if the word 'good' is anywhere in the description. There will be no respite in the pace for him to get back in to it imho. I'm am trying to whisper this as the fly foot soldiers are out on patrol.

Should be a cracking race and one I can't wait to see.
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HF struggle for pace? Yep thats always been a problem for the horse.. :D
 
trefflich said:
MTOY being outbattled by a Charlie Longsdon horse in a winners bumper will long stick in my memory. Totally outbattled.
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Outstayed, rather than outbattled.
It's no accident that MTOY began his career in a 14f NH Flat race around a sharp Ludlow, exactly the kind of race you'd introduce a flat-bred horse with doubts about his stamina. In both his subsequent bumpers he pulled too hard early, and simply didn't last home. Neither race was run at any great pace, but still require more stamina than equivalent hurdle races, owing to the lack of obstacles to break the pace up.
He's continued the same trait throughout his career (would've won the Supreme without it), and Nicky will need to orchestrate some special kind of racecourse gallop(s) to take the freshness out before the big one.
Just my opinion, but if they happened to saunter around the CH course, he has enough speed to laugh at the lot of them, but we all know that ain't going to happen.
 
trefflich said:
MTOY being outbattled by a Charlie Longsdon horse in a winners bumper will long stick in my memory. Totally outbattled.
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Two years ago? In a bumper!! Fair play to you if you let bumper form from 2 years ago influence your decison on this years Champion Hurdle.

Actually that same bumper turned out to be very decent with Valdez 8L back in fourth & Turn Over Sivola a further 20L back in 6th
 
Diamond Geezer said:
He's been isolated from the rest of the stable, he's missing engagements and I suspect something is not right. Just a gut feeling, can't substantiate it.
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McCoy on JEZKI / MY TENT OR YOURS: "Things are very much up in the air at the moment, probably won’t make the choice until the day before." :ninja::lol:

McCoy on Jezki: "We have been riding him wrong as he wants two and a half miles and positive tactics will see him to much better effect."
 
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Also McCoy re Chelt : "The water table is so high you just need two days rain and we we will have real soft ground"

and re MTOY not running at Kelso "He would give himself a very hard race if you tried him on this ground" Good to Soft / Soft in places! :blink::blink::blink:

THEFEAR
 
Kauto Abu said:
Two years ago? In a bumper!! Fair play to you if you let bumper form from 2 years ago influence your decison on this years Champion Hurdle.

Actually that same bumper turned out to be very decent with Valdez 8L back in fourth & Turn Over Sivola a further 20L back in 6th
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A leopard doesn't change it's spots. I thought it was thoroughly disappointing that day.
 
reet hard said:
Outstayed, rather than outbattled.
It's no accident that MTOY began his career in a 14f NH Flat race around a sharp Ludlow, exactly the kind of race you'd introduce a flat-bred horse with doubts about his stamina. In both his subsequent bumpers he pulled too hard early, and simply didn't last home. Neither race was run at any great pace, but still require more stamina than equivalent hurdle races, owing to the lack of obstacles to break the pace up.
He's continued the same trait throughout his career (would've won the Supreme without it), and Nicky will need to orchestrate some special kind of racecourse gallop(s) to take the freshness out before the big one.
Just my opinion, but if they happened to saunter around the CH course, he has enough speed to laugh at the lot of them, but we all know that ain't going to happen.
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I've always had a soft spot for MTOY. He was foaled a couple of miles from my house here in 2007 and they always knew he was something special, even tho they had a bit of a job selling him on!! He was bred for the Derby. I've backed him in most of his races and will probably end up backing him again in this years champion.

He is a sublime traveler and tends to pull hard but I've been impressed with how he's settled this year in both of his Gd1 wins. Last year, in pulling the arms out of McCoy, it was remarkable he achieved what he did. He destroyed the betfair field as a novice in soft ground giving weight to 90% of the field but that was expected. He was trained solely with that race in mind which the gamble before it, 12s into 5s, and Henderson alluded to after. He was so impressive in that & with Darlan's death there was all sorts of talk about a champion hurdle appearance, more so by the media to be fair.

In the end they decided they would go for the Supreme where he just got touched off by Champagne Fever again having raced so keenly for most of the race. People have put that defeat down to a number of things, not coming up the hill, getting out battled, getting outstayed but not many have alluded to Ruby Walsh's genius tactical ride on the winner which I'm convinced was the undoing of My Tent Or Yours winning chance.

Racing UK done a very fascinating comparison on split screen between the Supreme and the Champion which highlights that fact. In the Supreme Champagne Fever went off very quickly and was a good 3-4 seconds ahead of the champion pace for the first 3 hurdles. In contrast Rock on Ruby took them to the first four hurdles at a more sedate pace before cranking it up big time. He had Ruby niggling at the fly in or around the time Grandouet hit the deck. By the time they came down the hill approaching home ROR had started to empty such was the gallop he had set. The Fly breezed past and powered up the hill.

In contrast Ruby had slowed the pace right up to ensure his horse could fill his lungs but also knowing full well that the more sedate pace would affect the strong travelling favourite more than anyone else in the field. Coming down the hill again he picked it up once last time and kicked for home knowing that neither stamina or a turn of foot was not an issue. MTOY loomed large to the last but the damage had already been done. He had wasted a lot of energy asking McCoy to speed things up for the best part of a mile but battled very gamely to the line. I'm convinced MTOY would have taken that race if anyone else but Ruby and Champagne Fever had have been in front.

I'd have no issues with MTOY or yours going into the champion hurdle. He proved last year he handles the course and against The New One, when he settled better, that he's game for a fight. He will probably travel the best of the field into the race too. Also one other positive for him, along with Hurricane Fly & Our Conor, he is a sublime hurdler at top speed. Something which may very well decide this years race.

Hurricane Fly is a worthy champion and again will take all the beating again but I'd be worried about the proximity of Marito & Captain Cee Bee to him twice this year. Captain Cee Bee is a senior citizen at 13 now but finished 3L behind the fly last time out and that was with Mark Walsh taking it handy on him coming to the last. If Katie really wanted to the first day out I don't think he'd have broken the world record of Gd1s on that day! The New One has good course form both his hurdling leaves to be a lot to be desired. One mistake in the champion and it's good night and God bless. Our Conor looks good but perhaps needs to strengthen up a bit. He's only 5 and has lots of years ahead of him.


On a side note I see this morning that Kelso is gone from good/soft soft in places to Soft-good/soft in places and with more rain forecast today it's probably the right decision to leave him at home. Henderson is no mug having trained a record amount of festival winners he knows what it takes. No point in leaving any chance he might have in the champion in Scotland.

Looking forward to what will be the most anticipated race of this years festival. Most important, hopefully they all come home safe.
 
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Eleven entries stand their ground

Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
1111-111 ANNIE POWER (IRE) 6 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
131/4-35 GRUMETI 6 McNeill Family Alan King
1111-111 HURRICANE FLY (IRE) 10 George Creighton & Rose Boyd Willie Mullins IRE
131-1124 JEZKI (IRE) 6 J P McManus Jessica Harrington IRE
2111-151 MELODIC RENDEZVOUS 8 Cash For Honours Jeremy Scott
1121-11 MY TENT OR YOURS (IRE) 7 J P McManus Nicky Henderson
1111-32 OUR CONOR (IRE) 5 Barry Connell Dessie Hughes IRE
131-2122 PTIT ZIG (FR) 5 Barry Fulton, Chris Giles & Richard Webb Paul Nicholls
212-112 THE NEW ONE (IRE) 6 Sarah Such Nigel Twiston-Davies
632-405 THOUSAND STARS (FR) 10 Hammer & Trowel Syndicate Willie Mullins IRE
1/111-11 UN DE SCEAUX (FR) 6 Edward O’Connell Willie Mullins IRE
 
MTOY was held at Kempton until TNO's error - I'm convinced of that now. And he refused to go past in the Supreme - I'm convinced of that too, having watched the race back again last weekend.

Squiggle is in the post.
 
Great post Kauto, and I'd agree entirely that Ruby's artistry won him the Supreme. Also the Kelso ground would likely be a piece worse than some blithely anticipate.
Wouldn't write the Fly off on Captain Cee Bee's proximity though as that was merely a function of the poor pace the latter set.
 
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