links781
Journeyman
HF will be retired,beaten gallantly into 3rd.
Champion Hurdle 2014
- Thread starter granger
- Start date
you can't say that on what we know. he's completely unexposed and we simply don't know how good he is.
would he win this champion? probably not. could he? absolutely.
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SlimChance
Guest
But we can quantify the chances of each and it's currently 7.14% that he can win, which to my mind exaggerates his chances of being good enough.
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SlimChance
Guest
Freely available at 12/1 NRNB for as much as you like.
thehorsesmouth
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2013
- Messages
- 82
A certainty to go chasing all being well. Highly probably Vautour will go chasing too.
I'd like to see The Tent chasing next season too, built for fences a lot more than Jezki and The New One in my opinion!
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baracouda
Guest
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baracouda
Guest
Come on bite..
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baracouda
Guest
I agree
but the difference is that I think UDS is the only 170+ horse of the field
this is how I rate them at the moment
NOTE RATING ODDSadjusted to 12-00
Hurricane Fly
169 (+7) always runs lower than his best at cheltenham, too old
Jezki
169 will improve his form this season if McCoy is not on and with a stronger pace.
Melodic Rendezvous
163p needs heavy ground
My Tent Or Yours
168+ better suited by good ground and flat course
Our Conor
167+ impressive in the Triumph , can improve this season form, course to suit , bad jockey , unlikley winner
Ptit Zig
164 not good enough
The New One
169+, course to suit, will need a strong pace, maybe better on a longer distance.
Un De Sceaux
178++? conservative with the figures, will lead and no other front runner in the field, the way he finishes his race the hill should suit, Townnend would be a good ride. the price nrnb is simply unreal.
Annie Power
172+t, chaser in the making, will find the trip too short, the mares allowance gives her a place chance but I dont think sh ewill run here.
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baracouda
Guest
I haven't even considered UDS in the betting market or danger as I don't think he will run. I have OC on 169+ currently with a projected figure of 174hopefully by March 11th. Agreed with assessment on OR figures otherwise.
I want him in the race cause of a small ap bet on him but mostly because he adds the wild card factor to an already classic looking line up, visually like UDS a lot but that is a hell of a leap of faith there Suny, its 'nearly' up there with the opposite view that he is a 50/1 French yak...
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Double Handful
At the Start
Ah now suny, 178+ OR for UDS..........
175 is the highest OR of a Champion Hurdle winner in the last 20 odd years! And that was Binocular.
1998 - Istabraq 174 OR
2013 - Hurricane Fly 173 OR
You're suggesting 178+ for a Horse that hasn't even run in a Grade 1 yet.
I think someone may have spiked your breakfast milk with acid or something suny!
175 is the highest OR of a Champion Hurdle winner in the last 20 odd years! And that was Binocular.
1998 - Istabraq 174 OR
2013 - Hurricane Fly 173 OR
You're suggesting 178+ for a Horse that hasn't even run in a Grade 1 yet.
I think someone may have spiked your breakfast milk with acid or something suny!
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SlimChance
Guest
Thanks for posting your workings. Given there will only be 8 runners I'm not sure front running is an advantage.
BigTea
At the Start
- Joined
- Jan 24, 2014
- Messages
- 145
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SlimChance
Guest
If they all go chasing all I can say is ******* hell!
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SlimChance
Guest
I believe this is correct, his figures are more in line with Timeform.
Maxbet
Journeyman
- Joined
- Dec 31, 2013
- Messages
- 2,059
Our Conor is trained by Dessie Hughes and was an impressive winner of last year’s Triumph Hurdle and one reason given for the debateable optimism exuded by his new owner Barry Connell is that he looked so good off a strong pace throughout that race last year.
He said Our Conor is expected to peak on the second Tuesday in March. a statement made by the very same people who also said he would improve in his last two runs but he didn’t.
Despite receiving weight and having been beaten quite imperiously by Hurricane Fly in both of those outings this season Mr Connell feels the way those races were run could have been against his star and is eagerly looking forward to Cheltenham and seeing him close the gap from nearly six lengths to just over one in less than a month.
"He looks the one horse who is capable of improving again," said Connell.
ERRRR...what about Jezki could he not improve if they work out the right tactics.
ERRRR...it wouldn’t be the worst conceived thought to believe The Fly could improve if it turns out to be fallacy that the two times previous winner is not really suited to Cheltenham....and that after the one time he was beaten it was reported he’d had a bad journey over....and Ruby admitted he gave him a poor ride.
"It turned into a sprint in the Irish Champion and that didn't really suit him” said Connell.
Mr Connell ignores the fact that Our Conor got beat 1 length in a race that turned into a sprint but expects him to turn round a 6 length deficit on 3Lb worse terms in a race that will be run identically to the first one and on a completely different course to that of last year’s Triumph hurdle.
Any sprint that lasts more than two furlongs won’t suite Our Conor because he’s a short runner with very little top speed.
A lot of talking but up to now no delivering...
Apart from the collateral evidence suggesting Our Conor can’t win, he also has statistics and one of the best Champion fields ever assembled up against him which to me makes the 11/8 against placing worth taking on.
He said Our Conor is expected to peak on the second Tuesday in March. a statement made by the very same people who also said he would improve in his last two runs but he didn’t.
Despite receiving weight and having been beaten quite imperiously by Hurricane Fly in both of those outings this season Mr Connell feels the way those races were run could have been against his star and is eagerly looking forward to Cheltenham and seeing him close the gap from nearly six lengths to just over one in less than a month.
"He looks the one horse who is capable of improving again," said Connell.
ERRRR...what about Jezki could he not improve if they work out the right tactics.
ERRRR...it wouldn’t be the worst conceived thought to believe The Fly could improve if it turns out to be fallacy that the two times previous winner is not really suited to Cheltenham....and that after the one time he was beaten it was reported he’d had a bad journey over....and Ruby admitted he gave him a poor ride.
"It turned into a sprint in the Irish Champion and that didn't really suit him” said Connell.
Mr Connell ignores the fact that Our Conor got beat 1 length in a race that turned into a sprint but expects him to turn round a 6 length deficit on 3Lb worse terms in a race that will be run identically to the first one and on a completely different course to that of last year’s Triumph hurdle.
Any sprint that lasts more than two furlongs won’t suite Our Conor because he’s a short runner with very little top speed.
A lot of talking but up to now no delivering...
Apart from the collateral evidence suggesting Our Conor can’t win, he also has statistics and one of the best Champion fields ever assembled up against him which to me makes the 11/8 against placing worth taking on.
links781
Journeyman
There's a lot of fishing going on here.178 for a horse that's never run in a Grade 1,against anything quality,on any good ground or at the course.Id back it at 25's though.
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baracouda
Guest
using Zarkandar as a comparison for our conor as a previous triumph hurdle winner and Z placing 6L behind HF in the champion hdl. the following year as a 5yo. that year Z ran on at the finish like the stayer he is.
I can see the same for OC except when he runs on from behind on the tail of a fast pace , he will sail past them.
I can see the same for OC except when he runs on from behind on the tail of a fast pace , he will sail past them.