Champion Hurdle 2014

sunybay said:
If I were Ruby and would ride Hurricane
I would like Mullins doesnt run the horse

I prefer the opinions of owners and what about Townnend

the 2 keys are
the pace he would put is a negative for Hurricane


if the trainer wants him chasing then try once in the champion hurdle
the other is the horse is healthy now but could be fit next season

you have to hit the iron when the iron is hot


also note Hurrican is not an odds one chance, so why not run another horse with chance in the stable.



can you imagine how stupd can look Willie if this horse doesnt run , Hurricane is beaten and UDS wins the Champion Hurdle next season?
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Why would he look stupid? He'd just have trained the Champion Hurdle winner.

And even if UDS were to win it next season, it has no bearing whatsoever on his chance this season. In my view, you have this one rated far too high; based on a ropy, literal interpretation of winning distances in egg-and-spoon races in bottomless ground.
 
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Wouldn't believe a word that comes out of the mans mouth.They have no intention of running him there.They'll wait til punchestown and preserve his price for next year.
 
sunybay said:
the pace he would put is a negative for Hurricane
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I agree there is definitely something in this. I've heard a lot of people saying - why would Mullins not run UDS & AP. Triple your chances of winning the Biggest race.... Just in case HF does not perform. Nothing to lose...

I think Willie has a fear that if he runs UDS, it will not suit HF. And then with the likely stronger pace on good/soft ground, UDS at the same time hampering HF chances, will be setting the race up perfectly, for HF BIGGEST current market rival.

I'd love it of UDS runs. I think would set it up perfectly for TNO!
 
From Willies point of view if he thinks HF is better than the other two and will beat them, why would he want to risk their confidence given their inexperience in this company by running in such a hot race when chasing is prob the long term target.

As a spectacle for us fans it's better if they run but he prob doesn't want to risk it so I'd imagine if they run it's the owners choice.

As a HF fan I have no issue with a quick pace as his tactics will adjust accordingly and I expect a few others TNO especially to struggle in the jumping department with that pace.
 
Would this Hurricane Fly, that supposedly needs a slow pace, be the same one that won last year when the principals were reported as going off at100 mph? :)
No surprise at all to see UDS not run, but it probably means STD having to make his own pace on The New One. No matter how good the horse is, I'd severely doubt the jockey is equal to it.
 
If it's a strongly run affair it will suit both HF and MTOY.I wouldn't have confidence in the New One jumping if he's put under pressure.It'll be between HF and MTOY with Jezki holding on for a place just.
 
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I agree with the comment that uds wold have been more highly tried if he was expected to line up. I also think that the reason he may not is nothing to do with hf's chances. They can be confident but they know full well that they are up against probably their best opponents to date and HF could quite easily hit a wall at this stage of career

Uds and ap may be geared towards long term. Good luck with that at Mullins stable
 
Apart from the few very notable and obvious ones, I find it difficult to remember and know who everyone fancies for the CH when quickly scanning the posts on the thread.

The way things have been going on the CH thread I expect the banter to ramp up even more now with the festival drawing closer.

Be great If everyone got get a pic or a quote on their signature up clearly nailing their colours to the mast!
 
I'm going to watch a couple tno's races again. The hurdling has been high profile last hurdle errors but is he clumsy all the way round? Hadn't really noticed that so far

Kauto has this last obstacle thing too for a while too. It passed
 
i'd have to take another look but i suspect a bit has been made of TNO's hurdling as he's made mistakes at the last in both his last two races.

i'd be surprised if it's been any worse than say, jezki's.
 
clivex said:
I'm going to watch a couple tno's races again. The hurdling has been high profile last hurdle errors but is he clumsy all the way round? Hadn't really noticed that so far

Kauto has this last obstacle thing too for a while too. It passed
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Clive.... We're on the same page tonight. I just spent the last 20 mins watching his 3 previous races from this season. 3 Races. 8 hurdles in each race. 24 Hurdles total.

He clattered the last in xmas hurdle and at Chelt when beating Zarkandar. That's 2 hurdles. Of the remaining 22 Hurdles, he reached a bit for 3, and gave 1 a lot of air. The rest are fine! Not the most technically beautiful or fluent hurdler. But only 2 or 3 Hurdles this whole season have slowed his momentum when jumping them.

So it is nowhere near as bad as some are making out.

People opposing TNO will point to the fact that the 2 biggest mistakes were at pivitol points in races when the pressure was on.

But he absolutely pinged the last when Beating ROR and at Cheltenham last year. And I've every faith he'll do that again come 11th March!
 
reet hard said:
Would this Hurricane Fly, that supposedly needs a slow pace, be the same one that won last year when the principals were reported as going off at100 mph? :)
No surprise at all to see UDS not run, but it probably means STD having to make his own pace on The New One. No matter how good the horse is, I'd severely doubt the jockey is equal to it.
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The fly was in trouble last year make no mistake. The fact was that ROR couldn't sustain it. The difference is this year the likes of OC, TNO, Jezki will be able to sustain the relentless gallop for much longer. If you want to forget last year or the year he was beaten then fair enough, There will be no hiding place, Shame UDS is probably not going to run, obviously Willie realises he could ultimately aid to the demise of his beloved pet :D

Your 2nd point regards STD is potentially a valid one. Just don't fooking panic Sam, good lad.
 
Yeah dh. these things register don't they?

Think the mistakes have been "just one of those things" . It happens in sport. Not everything can be analysed

One thing about tno which I really like is the way he really battles and sticks neck out. Could mean an awful lot on the day especially if its been a gruelling race. I can see a couple flattening out badly at the end too

With all due respect to the other possible winners and hurricane fly too, no horse will be more up for it at the end of the race
 
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Doesn't the fact that TNO hasn't had a run this calendar year worry you?
I think its a very long time since a horse won the Champion without having a prep run that calendar year.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Doesn't the fact that TNO hasn't had a run this calendar year worry you?
I think its a very long time since a horse won the Champion without having a prep run that calendar year.
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Yup.. Definitely one of the trends not in TNO favour.

22 of the last 24 winners won a race previously that season.

But imo in the case of TNO this season it has been done specifically and delibertately. I personally don't see it as an issue. I hope NTD knows best!

Other trends very much in his favour:

19 of the last 23 winners started in the first five of the betting
18 of the last 25 winners had winning form at Cheltenham
Only 4 winners older than eight since 1951
No horse has won the Supreme Novices' the year before and gone on to win the Champion since 1971 (I know MTOY did not quite win the Supreme last year but I'm using this trend as a negative for him!)

And then in my own opinion I think the Neptune in recent years has been a stronger pointer for the Champion than the Supreme. (Hardy Eustace & ROR).
 
tiggers1972 said:
Doesn't the fact that TNO hasn't had a run this calendar year worry you?
I think its a very long time since a horse won the Champion without having a prep run that calendar year.
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2 years I think - Rock On Ruby. ages before that but the same stat existed for the Supreme until Captain Cee Bee buried it.
 
That's right simmo. We had the 5 year old stat endlessly in here before katchit. Strangely quiet about our Conor

Doesn't worry me too much tigger. Main thing is he's been properly raced and tested this season. I like the overall experience rather than the stat.
 
UDS owned by the man who sponsors the Hilly Way Chase in Mallow.
O Connell Transport is his business .
Originally from near Buttevant I have no idea of his preference for chasers over hurdlers.
Just thought I would share that .
 
Maybe Mullins ask him to wait until 2016 to run the horse in the champion hurdle because he has annie power for the 2015 edition.

This is a bizarre debate
I imagine if the man owns national hunt horses is to win races at the festival in march.

Ruby looked like trying to win yesterday by shorter distances and could not stop the horse going to the línea.

I wonder how long nicholls will ask Townnend to be his stable jockey.
 
Would imagine that UDS runs in either the Aintree or Punchestown equivilant. Unless he can win one very impressively, I'd imagine he goes novice chasing.

Nicholls may try get young Twisty
 
granger said:
Would imagine that UDS runs in either the Aintree or Punchestown equivilant. Unless he can win one very impressively, I'd imagine he goes novice chasing.

Nicholls may try get young Twisty
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I dont see UDS as a chaser, i think he is more a limestone lad type


About tw. Davies, he is a good jockey but Townnend is to steps ahead,
 
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