Champion Hurdle 2014

links781 said:
Happy they have given him a pipe opener,wouldn't be surprised if he needs another or something similar/a racecourse gallop before the big day.
Click to expand...

Ya I think Henderson has said if it's needed they'll go to Kempton again. That was a hell of a lot better than the horse getting bottomed out at Wincanton yesterday. Jps other horse set a decent gallop and it was the fastest race on the card by 9 seconds so he got to stretch his legs anyway.
 
links781 said:
Happy they have given him a pipe opener,wouldn't be surprised if he needs another or something similar/a racecourse gallop before the big day.
Click to expand...

Agree with this. Even off a decent pace today, he pulled too hard for comfort, and you'd think he'd want another outing of some sort to prime him for the big one.

DH
Anyone ''nailing their colours to the mast" more than 3 weeks before the race, without knowing the field, the ground or the likely pace, is either inspired or barmy, imo.
 
reet hard said:
Agree with this. Even off a decent pace today, he pulled too hard for comfort, and you'd think he'd want another outing of some sort to prime him for the big one.

DH
Anyone ''nailing their colours to the mast" more than 3 weeks before the race, without knowing the field, the ground or the likely pace, is either inspired or barmy, imo.
Click to expand...

Yeah very fair point. If you are still considering your options I fully agree that ground, the field size and maybe other various conditions still need to be taken into consideration. But the way I look at it, none of those factors are going to change my mind on TNO. I think he is ground versatile.

But realistically Reet - barring an injury to one of the big 5, UDS, AP & and the ground are really the only variables.

Bookies have it odds on that the ground will be Good to Soft on Day 1.

Based on what we know and we've been hearing I'm going to estimate:
Annie Power chances of actually lining up in CH - 25%
Un De Sceaux chances of actually lining up in CH - 50%

Outside of those 3 factors is there much else that will drastically change your current view?
 
Double Handful said:
Nice Signature update Kauto Abu ;)
Click to expand...

Thanks DH. My colours are nailed to the mast. Like you were saying I think MTOY is versatile enough in terms of going, tho naturally he'd prefer a bit if good in there, he has won on soft and heavy. I think the only negative is pace up front. However I fully believe Jezki to set a good pace from the start. The faster they go for MTOY the better. McCoy has kind of alluded to the fact that Jezki will be ridden differently.

I'm sure they were aware that UDS probably wouldn't run so he'll be the one to set the fractions up front with Geragthy more than likely taking the ride. One thing team MTOY don't want is a slow steady pace.
 
Few interesting stats to go by for the race taken from ATR website;

Backing a last-time-out winner has been a crucial factor over the last three decades with 25 of the last 30 winners also successful on their most recent start. On the basis of that stat Our Conor, TNO, Jezki will struggle.

Our Conor will try and overcome the poor win record of five-year-olds of just one winner since 1985 and 90 have tried in the interim.

Now aged ten, Hurricane Fly became only the fourth horse since 1951 to win the Champion Hurdle over the age of eight last season, so he has already overturned one age stat and if he can win as a ten-year-old then he will become only the second horse to do so.

Prior to the Christmas Hurdle, The New One had previously won the International Hurdle and winners of that Grade 2 race don’t have a good Champion Hurdle record as only Rooster Booster of the last 24 to then take their chance stretching back to 1973 has won.

Eight of the last 14 winners ran in the previous season’s Champion Hurdle (and 19 of the last 29 winners finished in the first four at the previous season’s Festival) but also note the Fighting Fifth Hurdle won by My Tent Or Yours as that featured three winners between 2008 - 2010 and the winner has gone on to be placed for the last three years. Five winners since 1990 also contested the Kingwell Hurdle. That said, My Tent Or Yours also won the Christmas Hurdle and only Kribensis of the last 22 winners of that Grade 1 race to take their chance in the Champion Hurdle has won so you pays your money you takes your choice which to believe holds more weight.

If MTOY wins he'll give Nicky Henderson a record breaking 6th champion hurdle and the owner JP McManus gets a £1 million bonus having all ready won the Fighting Fifth & The Christmas Hurdle. Only Kribensis of the last 22 winners of the Christmas Hurdle race to take their chance in the Champion Hurdle has won.

AT A GLANCE SUMMARY

POSITIVES
Finished in the first four at last season’s Cheltenham Festival
Contested the Fighting Fifth Hurdle or Kingwell Hurdle
Trained in Ireland or by Nicky Henderson
Horses beaten in the Christmas Hurdle and International Hurdle have a better record than the winner


NEGATIVES

Beaten last time out
Not run during the same calendar year
Five-year-olds (for win-only purposes)
The International Hurdle winner
 
"POSITIVES
Finished in the first four at last season’s Cheltenham Festival
Contested the Fighting Fifth Hurdle or Kingwell Hurdle
Trained in Ireland or by Nicky Henderson
Horses beaten in the Christmas Hurdle and International Hurdle have a better record than the winner"

Daft stats completely weighted towards a winner based in the UK. Or, to be more specific, trained by Nicky Henderson...

And sure enough, you fancy MTOY

Hurricane fan here with TNO as second most likely and can't buy the above
 
Jambo said:
"POSITIVES
Finished in the first four at last season’s Cheltenham Festival
Contested the Fighting Fifth Hurdle or Kingwell Hurdle
Trained in Ireland or by Nicky Henderson
Horses beaten in the Christmas Hurdle and International Hurdle have a better record than the winner"

Daft stats completely weighted towards a winner based in the UK. Or, to be more specific, trained by Nicky Henderson...

And sure enough, you fancy MTOY

Hurricane fan here with TNO as second most likely and can't buy the above
Click to expand...

"Daft" stats to you maybe but on the evidence of winners over the years, true all the same. I didn't just make them up you know. Have a look here for yourself.

I don't know where you're specifically getting a UK bias when one of the positives is for Irish trained horses.

http://www.attheraces.com/cheltenham/article.aspx?hlid=541348&raceid=800462&day=1
 
Last edited:
My Tent Or Yours is a big stats negative. There have been 83 Champion Hurdles, and none of them had their final race before the Champion Hurdle in a Jumpers Bumper.
 
SlimChance said:
Stats and trends should be thrown in the bin.
Click to expand...

Not true Slim, but people who follow them blindly should have their bank accounts frozen.

Stats and trends are definitely useful if combined with genuine form study and if they're used to help find winners and not to blindly decide a horsecan't win.
 
With Henderson thinking he can not beat hf
Un de sceaux waiting for the 2016 edition
Our connor with Danny mullins on the saddle

Whats next?
Mullins asking the other trainers only to run grumeti and melódic rendevouz?
In that he could use also thousand star to put a slow pace for the superchampion.
 
I'll nail my colours now that everyone is coming out with such sweeping statements.The only way my tent or yours is not involved in the finish is if they crawl.This is a champion hurdle that isn't going to happen.He'll be travelling all over them coming to two out,the horse last year was a shell of what it is now.The only negative is the energy expended by how hard he pulls which could well be evened out by the strong pace.its between HF and the tent,preference for the latter though.
 
I worry though, and not for my bets. This is the best renewal of any race I can remember since the 1986 Arc - and that contest had Nemain and Baby Turk setting a good pace.

I think NTD and Hendo have been out thought by Mullins here. They assumed UDS would run so pacemakers weren't needed.

I have to wonder about the Ricci's as well. You have two genuine contenders and run neither in the race, that is a complete lack of balls. Fair enough, they want to bring along UDS slowly, but these horses are fragile creatures, what if he gets injured? Strike while the iron is hot. And as for Annie Power, the World Hurdle is for failed chasers and horses that are too slow for the Champion. Annie Power is niether.
 
Back
Top