Champion Hurdle 2014

The state of that pair in the xmas Hurdle...the Hurricane would've laughed at them. Neither will win the CH. Our Connor has been found out aswell.
 
Double Handful said:
This is a very valid point. We're all guilty of seeing what we want to see when we big up our selections performance.

I've watched the race over and over and unsurprisingly I really don't see MTOY going away. Definitely not. Think about it, if both horses are approaching the final flight at, lets say 25MPH, With TNO clattering the last, he is slowed to let's say 15MPH, while TNO then has to re-accelerate to get back up to 25MPH, all the while MTOY is still traveling at this same speed.

MTOY was not accelerating further away. And in my humble opinion if you really believe this you are trying to convince yourself! It just took TNO time to try and get back up to speed.
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Horses dont go faster at the end of NH races. One just slows down less than the others.
 
And from what I've learnt about the Old Course is that there will be no hiding room for MTOY, as they gallop three furlongs from the second last to the last. He'll be off the bridle well before the last, and won't find enough off it.
 
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Len Madeiros said:
And from I've learnt about the Old Course is that there will be no hiding room for MTOY, as they gallop three furlongs from the second last to the last. He'll be off the bridle well before the last, and won't find enough off it.
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No such evidence of that in last years Supreme Les where he traveled sublimely to the last. The Supreme was run a good 4 seconds faster than the champion. Ruby's tactically genius ride won him the race that day. MTOY came up the hill perfectly fine and the Old Course should suit him down to the ground, excuse the pun.

The Old Course requires a strong traveller with speed & MTOY has that in bucket loads.
 
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Digger said:
Horses dont go faster at the end of NH races. One just slows down less than the others.
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Fair enough Digger. TNO slowed down a lot less than MTOY then. And the reason he slowed down so much was due to the rather LARGE mistake he made at the last. It totally slowed his speed and momentum. I don't think that is even debatable!

I'll take on board the view that TNO hurdling has not been perfect and who's to say he won't make the same mistake at the last in the CH. I can easily accept that as a legitimate reason that people have for opposing TNO.

But the cold hard fact remains, that the last flight in the Xmas hurdle was the single most determining factor in that race.

MTOY needed a mistake from his rival to win. TNO totally holds it in his own hands to reverse that result! Which I firmly believe he is more than capable of doing. Add in the Cheltenham track v Kempton and there is just no comparison whatsoever!! TNO will absolutely hammer MTOY in Cheltenham. McCoy will be half way down the hill wondering what the hell just happened!!!
 
I'm more inclined to agree with Kauto that MTOY will be last off the bridle.

For me it's about the 2 horses who'll be off it at different stages during the race. Based on their respective 2013 runs Hurricane Fly wasn't travelling like a winner as they came down the hill whereas a race earlier MTOY was. However, whereas Hurricane Fly came back on it, MTOY found little off it.

I've not much doubt that MTOY has progressed and won't tie up so much, the question is will HF have been able to stay in contention long enough - during the inevitable kick for home STD will give The New One - to get back into it as the hill climbs ?. In truth I'm not sure but my gut tells me that he will and that he may just out-battle MTOY.

Jezki won't place but Our Connor will be running on past TNO after the final hurdle to take 3rd.
 
reet hard said:
DH
You're the one seeing what you want to see. After his last blunder, TNO regained his impetus and they were both head-to-head with c50 yards to travel. MTOY won half a length, which tells its own story
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In fairness reet, i did admit we are all biased in that same post!
"unsurprisingly I really don't see MTOY going away"

But I have to retort! TNO had to use all his energy and reserves to try to regain that impetus you speak of! Surely that's just physics! The mistake at the last severely slowed his momentum. Can you not see that?
MTOY lost no momentum at all! And only after the mistake, was MTOY able to close the gap! There is just no way MTOY was getting there until the mistake by TNO.

TNO had him hard held and the in running market at the time confirmed that!
If memory serves me correct, TNO traded as short as circa 1.18
 
Kauto Abu said:
No such evidence of that in last years Supreme Les where he traveled sublimely to the last. The Supreme was run a good 4 seconds faster than the champion. Ruby's tactically genius ride won him the race that day. MTOY came up the hill perfectly fine and the Old Course should suit him down to the ground, excuse the pun.

The Old Course requires a strong traveller with speed & MTOY has that in bucket loads.
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The time of the Supreme was quicker than the CH, but the sectionals at the business end were where the races were won and lost. Which horse will slow down the least when it matters? MYOY was actually beaten by a horse who has since gone chasing, and the runners behind have hardly franked the form of the Supreme.
 
Len Madeiros said:
The time of the Supreme was quicker than the CH, but the sectionals at the business end were where the races were won and lost. Which horse will slow down the least when it matters? MYOY was actually beaten by a horse who has since gone chasing, and the runners behind have hardly franked the form of the Supreme.
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Jezki in 3rd has won 2 Gd1s and a Gd2 since. He's also got within 2L & 3L of HF on both tries this year, one of the greatest hurdlers ever. Technicaly speaking, and I don't like doing it, it puts MTOY bang there if you take the form of the supreme literally. Dodging Bullets has done fairly well this season too.

CF has gone chasing but was always being suited for that. They contemplated putting him straight over fences after his bumper wins.

A lot of this argument about MTOY reminds me of Sprinter Sacre the year he won the Arkle. He won't come up the hill they said, he's too weak, he'll have to come off the bridle etc. That didn't work out too well for them.
 
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Len Madeiros said:
MYOY was actually beaten by a horse who has since gone chasing, and the runners behind have hardly franked the form of the Supreme.
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Yeah; winner's short price fav for the Arkle, 2nd's unbeaten since, the 3rds won 2gp1's and unlucky in another, and the remainder weren't in the same parish.
Crap, innit? :lol:
 
And the 9th Dodging Bullets, who was in a different Parish, has won 2 graded chases too and was 2nd in another. Bad auld form all right.
 
Jezki finishes clear of horses who gone on to win in Graded company - including G1 level.

Jezki himself won the G1 Hattons Grace.

The list of G1 winners who uphold Hurricane Fly's inescapably-superior level of form - either directly or collaterally - is ever increasing.

One day, he will get his due credit - and that day will be Tuesday 11th March 2014. :cool:
 
Correct,people crabbing the form are clutching at straws.Yeah he didn't find but what I'll argue the toss over is that he is a different horse.Its like saying Our Conor is the same horse.
 
Mullins apparently still being irritatingly coy about Annie Power at his press morning . Seems to suggest more likely to be going for the World Hurdle reading the runes as he asked what has she beaten over 2miles - well if you wanted to find out Willie why didn't you send her over for the Christmas Hurdle .

It is all rather pathetic . Can you imagine Peter Easterby sheltering Night Nurse from Sea Pigeon ?
 
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sunybay said:
His form on soft ground is not far behind of the main contenders
And the main reason should be that it looks like Willie Mullins will not be able to convince Paul Nicholls not to run the horse in the champion hurdle .:whistle:
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:D

Thanks
 
Ardross said:
Mullins apparently still being irritatingly coy about Annie Power at his press morning . Seems to suggest more likely to be going for the World Hurdle reading the runes as he asked what has she beaten over 2miles - well if you wanted to find out Willie why didn't you send her over for the Christmas Hurdle .

It is all rather pathetic . Can you imagine Peter Easterby sheltering Night Nurse from Sea Pigeon ?
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it's not hard to read between the lines.

if HF makes cheltenham fit and well. ap goes world hurdle.

if he doesn't. she deputises for him

same for quevega in the mares.

if somehow neither make it. ap in mares. uds in ch.

otherwise uds waits for aintree/punchestown/royal ascot.
 
JamesRB said:
it's not hard to read between the lines.

if HF makes cheltenham fit and well. ap goes world hurdle.

if he doesn't. she deputises for him

same for quevega in the mares.

if somehow neither make it. ap in mares. uds in ch.

otherwise uds waits for aintree/punchestown/royal ascot.
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Exactly... sick to death of people making out Mullins is somehow hurting racing by not stating the obvious. Same goes for the novices - its clear where they are going baring injury.
 
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