Champion Hurdle 2014

I have BW around 5L clear of SC on C/D. If last Instalment runs he's the one to trouble 'The Champ'.
My main hope is for Captain Chris to place at 40/1 in e/w multis. I want to see him hugging the rail using those outside as a buffer. Please follow riding instructions!
 
Maxbet said:
I have played with the video's all day....had to laugh at NTD's comments; "Someone showed me some statistics. He (TNO) covered the last two furlongs, over the same track as Hurricane Fly last year, unbelievably quicker. I don't understand how to access such information but that's what they showed me".

I put the two field’s level at the top of the hill 6 furlongs into the Neptune, the champion field opened up a 5 second gap by the next hurdle and maintained it until they started to row from 3 flights out, the Neptune field closed to jump the last level with TNO crossing the line 2 lengths to the good.

In contrast the Supreme field led the champion for 3 flights whereby Rock on Ruby then opened up, they ran 2 seconds faster until they began to row. The supreme field picked them up and dumped them 6 lengths.

Ruby is absolutely correct with his assumption that they were going too fast in the champion, this from the same pilot that gave the Supreme its perfect fractions aboard Champagne Fever.

Several things I clean from this; firstly Hurricane Fly’s performance was from the top draw, to cover the crazy pace and be able to put the race to bed.

Secondly how MTOY pulled McCoys arms out throughout and he still cruised into the race down the hill, I honestly believe he would have looked even more stylish off the champion pace and would probably have won off of it.

Thirdly and more difficult to predict is the merit of TNO because compared to the champion the pace they ran was very sedate, yet they still managed to claw them back but fall well short of the Supreme.

Lastly and after hours of deliberation, playing scenarios from all distances I am going to stick my neck out and say the finish will be between MTOY and Hurricane Fly.

Jezki will give the pace to the race and he won’t hang about, Chief beneficiaries will be MTOY, Our Conor and TNO. Our Conor will crack before the last the Fly will battle to get into the race behind Jezki and MTOY approaching the last.

The Fly and MTOY will forge on battling all the way to the line with Jezki hanging on for third from the keeping on TNO. McCoy stands in the saddle and punches the air as they cross the line.

Our Conor cracks from the top speed gallop and weakens before the last this I deduce from what I have already documented about his short top speed.
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Good stuff, Maxbet.

Still not sure how you can dismiss OC in terms of his top speed.
 
"He was too free the first year. I sat too far back on him the second year - he wasn't 100 per cent - and last year I shouldn't have followed the ones in front"

Not sure what tactics are left other than Hurricane Fly to run from the front then!!! :blink:
 
From Emmet Kennedy on Twitter:

"I'm sitting beside Henry De Bromhead who says Ricci told him he wants to run Annie Power in the Champion."

What Ricci wants, Ricci gets, surely?
 
Gareth Flynn said:
From Emmet Kennedy on Twitter:

"I'm sitting beside Henry De Bromhead who says Ricci told him he wants to run Annie Power in the Champion."

What Ricci wants, Ricci gets, surely?
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could have been months ago. decision will ultimately come down to the owner but he'll take the lead of the champion trainer and swerve it methinks.
 
sunybay said:
Walsh sometimes is a Joke
The other horses placed were running more prominently than him,
So they were given worst rides.
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HF was never more than 3-4l off the pace, and the leaders both needed further, so could hardly have been ridden much differently.
 
At the Waterford preview night. Jessie Harrington says Jezki will more than likely bowl off in front to ensure a gallop. Says he stays 2m 4f but doesn't really like it round there. Has a good ew chance. Corky Brown says it's between the two English horses and MTOY schooled very well this morning. Has strengthened up a lot since last year.


Davy Russell reckons Annie Power wont run in any race at the festival and instead will be kept for the G1 mares hurdle at Punchestown.


John francombe is brilliant.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Good stuff, Maxbet.

Still not sure how you can dismiss OC in terms of his top speed.
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I watched and measured both Leopardstown videos. The first race saw Our Conor return after being side lined through a minor injury...an injury that had caused some lost work but not enough in receipt of 3Lb to dampen the confidence of connections. The second race saw connections boasting of a much better performance even though they were a 1Lb worse off.

The two races were run entirely different, the first saw the principles having to come off the bridle some way out in an effort to reign in CCB and the second was run far less rigorous and ended in a sprint finish.

In both races Our Conor was last off the bridle but the first to crack, first race he could be excused and given the benefit of the doubt, the second with all previous excuses seemingly pushed aside by the confidence exuded by connections he could not.

I concluded that in both races at precisely the same length of top speed he capitulated, 18 seconds to be precise. I can see him travelling very well throughout the Champion hurdle but the top speed run generally starts on the decent to the second last and I think he will fold.
 
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Kauto Abu said:
At the Waterford preview night. Jessie Harrington says Jezki will more than likely bowl off in front to ensure a gallop. .
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Lovely. Some pacemaker! Set it up for a horse who will love a good gallop re-Melodic Rendevoux.
 
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Dessie on Oor Coonor.


"The thing about our horse is that he excels at Cheltenham.

"His win in the Triumph was exceptionally good and we are hoping he can repeat that performance again this year."

Zero confidence then... he is hoping he puts in the Triumph performance... well that Triumph performace aint every going to win a Champion Desmond. Leave it to the best Hurdler of our generation.
 
Maxbet said:
I watched and measured both Leopardstown videos. The first race saw Our Conor return after being side lined through a minor injury...an injury that had caused some lost work but not enough in receipt of 3Lb to dampen the confidence of connections. The second race saw connections boasting of a much better performance even though they were a 1Lb worse off.

The two races were run entirely different, the first saw the principles having to come off the bridle some way out in an effort to reign in CCB and the second was run far less rigorous and ended in a sprint finish.

In both races Our Conor was last off the bridle but the first to crack, first race he could be excused and given the benefit of the doubt, the second with all previous excuses seemingly pushed aside by the confidence exuded by connections he could not.

I concluded that in both races at precisely the same length of top speed he capitulated, 18 seconds to be precise. I can see him travelling very well throughout the Champion hurdle but the top speed run generally starts on the decent to the second last and I think he will fold.
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Surely in that case if he doesn't commit until after the second last it won't be a worry?
 
Digger said:
Dessie on Oor Coonor.


"The thing about our horse is that he excels at Cheltenham.

"His win in the Triumph was exceptionally good and we are hoping he can repeat that performance again this year."

Zero confidence then... he is hoping he puts in the Triumph performance... well that Triumph performace aint every going to win a Champion Desmond. Leave it to the best Hurdler of our generation.
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What he meant was, they are hoping he can win 15 lengths on the bridle...

(but will probably settle for five.)
 
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The New One, who has never won an all-aged G1 hurdle, is a shorter price in the Champion Hurdle market than Hurricane Fly.

Hurricane Fly has won nineteen Grade1 hurdles, is the twice-victorious reigning champion, and is undefeated this season - comfortably accounting for two of the emerging talent in his prep races.

How the FU*CK can this market possibly be correct?

I urge all croans to clear the harbour and head for high ground.
 
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people expect progression & conversly regression. that TNO has the scope to improve and Hurricane will regress.

unfortunately there's simply no sign of the latter happening yet. :cool: (or the former)
 
granger said:
People are generally dumb. Markets need not be correct. Desperate people always have hope, sensible people have reason.
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This is the great myth about Cheltenham: that because it is the most analysed meeting of the season the markets on most races, certainly the mature ones, will be settled and correct. Utter bilge.
 
Great market. What if the great man played the tent? The market had a massive hard on for The New One at Kempton. It will surely love him even more in Cheltenham. Hurricane Fly is no certainty to be fav.
 
Grasshopper said:
The New One, who has never won an all-aged G1 hurdle, is a shorter price in the Champion Hurdle market than Hurricane Fly.

Hurricane Fly has won nineteen Grade1 hurdles, is the twice-victorious reigning champion, and is undefeated this season - comfortably accounting for two of the emerging talent in his prep races.

How the FU*CK can this market possibly be correct?

I urge all croans to clear the harbour and head for high ground.
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granger said:
People are generally dumb. Markets need not be correct. Desperate people always have hope, sensible people have reason.
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Euronymous said:
This is the great myth about Cheltenham: that because it is the most analysed meeting of the season the markets on most races, certainly the mature ones, will be settled and correct. Utter bilge.
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I think you are well off here lads. Certainly regarding the 4 big races. Last year 3/4 Favs won and that would have been 4/4 had BigBucks not been injured.

CH - Fav 1st, 2ndFav 2nd
CC - Fav 1st, 2ndFav 2nd
GC - Fav 1st, 2nd & 3rd were that in the betting too

Markets are accurate Lads ! TNO is joint fav for a reason.

Obviously outside these 4 races there are regular double digit priced winners and there is value to be found.

TNO & HF will most likely be 1 & 2 on the day and MTOY & OC will fight it out for 3rd place. Making this currrent CH market accurate iimo.
 
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