Champion Hurdle 2014

A few points, 3 runs is not a good sample size to base opinions on but I accept people need to base opinions on something. The evidence so far is the fly isn't as good at Cheltenham but this isn't conclusive but he probably doesn't need to be.

Dessie saying our Conor excels around Cheltenham is a laughable statement, he may well do but has only ran there once.

Last years triumph form was strong, someone has already pointed out this is incorrect and a clear pointer is the distance Sametegal was beaten in the Xmas hurdle.

Unsurprisingly as a fly fan, I agree with grassy that Our Conor's two runs this year should be looked at with regards his ability and improvement with more relevance than last years triumph especially considering the form of the race.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Grey said:
Our Conor has his campaign geared to next week for sure, but so does every other horse in the race, so I don't know that he will pull out an extra 7lbs relative to them.
Click to expand...
Yes but for some, like Hurricane Fly, they will be trained to within y% of peak fitness in order to pick up something along the way; a trial or whatever. It looks like they've decided for some time that trials or other Gr1s along the way are irrelevant. They've wanted to be sure they have the Fly where they want him so they've been keeping him company to see what he's got, knowing what they themselves have in reserve.

Grey said:
He was a monster relative to his age group last year but that could be down to him maturing more quickly and there might not be as much improvement to come as some imagine.
Click to expand...

Yes, that's a possibility.
 
I just don't get this kind of thinking re Our Conor.

Where is the evidence that they've been ignoring the trials and keeping something in reserve?

The plain truth is that there is zero evidence for this, ofher than what OC fans concoct in their own minds. Hughes statements before the Ryanair and Irish Champion were confident and moreso - in that order - suggesting they thought him very-much ready to do himself justice; especially in the ICH. Post-race Hughes was reported to look as confused as he was crest-fallen.

OC fans hope he has something in reserve - and hope is all it is. And they better hope they're right, because OC is going to need it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes but for some, like Hurricane Fly, they will be trained to within y% of peak fitness in order to pick up something along the way; a trial or whatever. .
Click to expand...

This was an argument used against him two years ago, that he was taking in all the grade ones as he was on the way out.

He is a super horse, that's why he keeps winning. DH was certain that OC was fit enough to win the irish CH.

Do you not think that the Maestro Mullins will have left some work to do with the fly and/or the ch hasn't been his main target all season?
 
granger said:
Do you not think that the Maestro Mullins will have left some work to do with the fly and/or the ch hasn't been his main target all season?
Click to expand...

In one of the (many) interviews he's done Mullins said he was worried that he had been too easy on Hurricane Fly before the Irish Champion. In virtually all of the interviews it's pretty clear that Mullins is desperate for the horse to win at Cheltenham (and Quevega to win the mares race).

Even if Hughes has been training Our Conor to peak in the middle of March - and I think that's a pretty safe bet as well - it would only be of any relevance if Mullins hasn't, which I find nigh on impossible to believe.

Those that are banking on improvement on "fitness" grounds are clutching at straws. Of course, that doesn't mean that Our Conor hasn't got the improvement in him to get closer to or past Hurricane Fly.

I honestly don't know what to make of the race.

T-minus 11 days. :cool:
 
Last edited:
I don't get the poopooing of the Triumph form.

Far West 2nd off 145, subsequently found only Melodic Rendezvous too good in a Gr2 handicap before running a big race in the Betfair (rated alongside Dell’Arca), suggesting he’s comfortably a 150+ horse.

Sametegal, arguably should have won the Greatwood, again tying in with Dell’ Arca) and looking a 150+ horse.

Diakali subsequently won the Irish juvenile championship and was this seasona close fifth in the Hatton’s Grace, running to an RPR of 156.

Rolling Star, Chris Pea Green and Lac Fontana have all shown form this season significantly in advance of their juvenile ratings.

And Our Conor laughed at them all.
 
I think Our Conor will reverse the form with Hurricane ,but I dont know if he will be good enough to win,
the jockey is a negative
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
I don't get the poopooing of the Triumph form.

Far West 2nd off 145, subsequently found only Melodic Rendezvous too good in a Gr2 handicap before running a big race in the Betfair (rated alongside Dell’Arca), suggesting he’s comfortably a 150+ horse.

Sametegal, arguably should have won the Greatwood, again tying in with Dell’ Arca) and looking a 150+ horse.

Diakali subsequently won the Irish juvenile championship and was this seasona close fifth in the Hatton’s Grace, running to an RPR of 156.

Rolling Star, Chris Pea Green and Lac Fontana have all shown form this season significantly in advance of their juvenile ratings.

And Our Conor laughed at them all.
Click to expand...

I agree. The Triump form is rock-solid, but all it does is prop-up a higher figure for HF, on a line through Our Conor himself.
 
Grasshopper said:
I agree. The Triump form is rock-solid, but all it does is prop-up a higher figure for HF, on a line through Our Conor himself.
Click to expand...

Only if you believe Our Conor has been trying 100% this season. He looks to have been running as far ahead of last year's form as the other ex-juveniles but I just don't see why Hughes would risk leaving his Cheltenham hopes behind in Ireland in races against Hurricane Fly he doesn't need to win. There's more of an agenda with the Fly. He's the champ, exposed and chasing Gr1 after Gr1 while he's got the chance to do so. Mullins probably knows he's got better coming through but there's always next year for them.
 
As granger says, Hughes is campaigning OC no differently to bow Mullins is campaigning HF - get them as ready as they need to be for the preps, and make sure they peak at Cheltenham.

The notion that HF won the Ryanair and ICH because OC wasn't trying 100% - and HF was - isn't sustainable, imo.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Only if you believe Our Conor has been trying 100% this season. He looks to have been running as far ahead of last year's form as the other ex-juveniles but I just don't see why Hughes would risk leaving his Cheltenham hopes behind in Ireland in races against Hurricane Fly he doesn't need to win. There's more of an agenda with the Fly. He's the champ, exposed and chasing Gr1 after Gr1 while he's got the chance to do so. Mullins probably knows he's got better coming through but there's always next year for them.
Click to expand...
if the roles were reversed and there were reports of OC working badly in the week leading up to the irish champion everybody would be pointing toward it that OC hadn't been primed for any races this season and his best is yet to come. it seems to have been forgotten about that this happened to the fly.
 
I reckon HF was probably 95% in those races. I don't imagine OC was anywhere near that or was asked to try to win the races.

HF's seasonal programme was clear from the outset. Pick up the usual clutch of Gr1s and hopefully win another Champion.

OC's was equally clear: only one day and one race matters.
 
Last edited:
granger said:
He was ahead after the last hurdle in Feb, meeting it better.

You think the jockey was under instruction to not push him out at this stage?

Really?
Click to expand...

I think DO's suggestion - probably reflecting that of other OC supporters - is that OC was less ready than HF in those races, granger.

Presumably, they take the view that OC will win because they think he will improve a good deal yet; and with him already finishing reasonably close to Hurricane Fly in both outings, and with good course form, and with added fitness, and with them expecting HF to underperform, and with them generally under-rating the champ anyway......the reckon OC is the logical winner.

I think it's pie-in-the-sky nonsense myself.
 
I can't see any way that OC can reverse the form with HF, he keeps getting beat and they keep coming up with excuses, once fair enough, but anymore I don't believe it.
HF has nothing to worry about from Ireland, his threat will come from the pair who fought out the Xmas hurdle.


What do we all make of Ladbrokes offer?? Money back if the champ comes first or second?

I watched a re run of the 2005 CH the other day, showed a young lad at work who is going to his first festival this year. He couldn't believe it.
What a liar and a thief Harchibald was (re-incarnated in Our Connor!).
 
Last edited:
I'm looking at the body language of the jockeys in question.

First race
Walsh's says: Yes! Another Gr1!!
OC's says: That'll do, lad.

Second race
Walsh's: F&ck, I'm beat... oh hang on... yes!! Another Gr1!!
OC's: F&ck, I'm gonna win... where's the Fly... oh there he is .. oh well... not to worry... today isn't the day...
 
tiggers1972 said:
I can't see any way that OC can reverse the form with HF, he keeps getting beat and they keep coming up with excuses, once fair enough, but anymore I don't believe it.
Click to expand...

Sorry to bring the flat into this but I read the exact same thing before last year's Sussex Stakes and when the whole Henrythenavigator/Raven's Pass thing was going on. The Champion Hurdle test will be right up OC's alley and he is trained by a man who is almost as good as Mouse at getting his beasts in prime condition for March and leaving their winter form behind.
 
Bold though isnt it? Hes 5 and will be back for more surely. Tend to think that horses that have been there and done a bit will be aimed "at one race" rather than those building experience for both horse and connections
 
edgt said:
Agree with you DO.
One day only on Our Conor's radar.
Once The Fly passed him Danny was not at all severe on him.
Click to expand...

Being hard on him wouldn't have made a difference, when the tanks empty the engine don't run....18 seconds of top speed both races and chug chug.
 
Back
Top