Champion Hurdle 2014

Ardross said:
Is it not "crone" ? A word for an ugly old woman .
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You're quite right, Ardross. I shall correct this going forward.

It may explain why so many of them seem content to await their fate by the quay - they don't know they're being addressed. Those saved may build statues in your honour.
 
Double Handful said:
CH - Fav 1st, 2ndFav 2nd
CC - Fav 1st, 2ndFav 2nd
GC - Fav 1st, 2nd & 3rd were that in the betting too

Markets are accurate Lads ! TNO is joint fav for a reason.

Obviously outside these 4 races there are regular double digit priced winners and there is value to be found.

TNO & HF will most likely be 1 & 2 on the day and MTOY & OC will fight it out for 3rd place. Making this currrent CH market accurate iimo.
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That's just one year in isolation though and critically the Queen Mother and the Champion Hurdle weren't that competitive.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Surely in that case if he doesn't commit until after the second last it won't be a worry?
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Do you think Danny boy will have the balls or even the know how to drop him out and come as late as possible....If even a jockey as good as Ruby can admit to getting drawn into a fcuk up because of the pace then this lad will.

The top speed gallop will begin a long way out...the pace will be dictated by Geraghty aboard Jezki and it will be ferocious with a McManus sting in the tail....Don't go with it and he will escape, follow it and the chief benefactor will be MTOY.
 
Euronymous said:
That's just one year in isolation though and critically the Queen Mother and the Champion Hurdle weren't that competitive.
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Yeah fair point Euro. I was just recalling most recent to memory I suppose. But even again, look at this year, Each Fav in their own right looks strong. BW, SDG, BB & TNO/HF (Whichever goes off fav).

Unlikely all 4 will win but still hard to argue these markets are inaccurate.

I appreciate the stats and prestige of what HF has done, and on paper and past performance he has achieved a lot more than the rest of this field ever likely will in their future. So in that respect grassy makes a very valid point.

But the market is predicated on what people think will happen on the day factoring in all the variables and potential conditions. The potential and possibility of what could happen....

I think a lot on here are not only underestimating the ability of TNO to win the race, but seriously underestimating the potential home support that could come for him on the day. I agree with Slim, betting on the fav is a tight market and a dangerous one to get involved in imo.
 
Double Handful said:
I think you are well off here lads. Certainly regarding the 4 big races. Last year 3/4 Favs won and that would have been 4/4 had BigBucks not been injured.

CH - Fav 1st, 2ndFav 2nd
CC - Fav 1st, 2ndFav 2nd
GC - Fav 1st, 2nd & 3rd were that in the betting too
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CH - Fav 1st, 2ndFav was 4th
CC - Fav 1st, 2ndFav 2nd 1/4...6/1....20/1 bar
GC - Fav 1st, 2nd & 3rd
 
Double Handful said:
I think a lot on here are not only underestimating the ability of TNO to win the race, but seriously underestimating the potential home support that could come for him on the day.
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The New One hasn't got anything hidden that someone insightful could make us aware of. His collateral can be exploded and doesn't put him ahead of the others. If you could elaborate on a reason for the general underestimation then maybe we could discuss it.:confused:
 
Sorry Maxbet. Thought ROR had gone off 2nd fav. Even at that - The 3rd Fav was 2nd in the race. I never mentioned quality of the races in my argument, merely that the markets for the big 4 races last year were very accurate.
 
A year in isolation is no great measure. A decade of stats would be the minimum.

I'm not into stats overly anyway but of all the horses in the ch field now

Worst price -TNO

Best price - Jezki

Winner - Hurricane
 
Maxbet said:
If you could elaborate on a reason for the general underestimation then maybe we could discuss it.:confused:
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You do seem confused Max...... I do not underestimate the TNO, so I've nothing to elaborate on. Why other people underestimate his race chances and market strength is not for me to say. I'm sure they have their reasons.

Who are you on?
 
Double Handful said:
Sorry Maxbet. Thought ROR had gone off 2nd fav. Even at that - The 3rd Fav was 2nd in the race. I never mentioned quality of the races in my argument, merely that the markets for the big 4 races last year were very accurate.
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You don't have to apologize, you make a good point but I do think the size and quality of the field does make a difference to the point your making.
 
Double Handful said:
You do seem confused Max...... I do not underestimate the TNO, so I've nothing to elaborate on. Why other people underestimate his race chances and market strength is not for me to say. I'm sure they have their reasons.

Who are you on?
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My confusion is; how can you be certain that he is being under estimated.


My Tent Or Yours
 
Maxbet said:
My confusion is; how can you be certain that he is being under estimated.
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I suppose i came on to the thread and saw 4 or 5 posts in a row all agreeing that market for the CH was inaccurate. Just disagreeing with that, because I do think its accurate.

It was also mentioned, that its not true and a bit of a myth that the Cheltenham markets are accurate. I then (now to my detriment:o ) used last years main markets/results to strengthen my point. But i do agree 1 year is much too small sample size to make a strong case.....
 
I can see this turning into a 6 horse race if the ground dries out. I really do respect The Fly but I am visualising how the race will be run and I think it will play into the hooves of MTOY.

6 horses don't offer a lot of cover and if Jezki goes for it MTOY has the ability to cover any pace, the faster the better and he will find cover. People say he wont get up the hill but he got up it faster than The Fly, TNO, and Jezki last year.
 
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Maxbet said:
People say he wont get up the hill but he got up it faster than The Fly, TNO, and Jezki last year.
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Eh Max.... Have you not read my signature?!

I know we all have our opinions, and that's what makes this race so great, but the one thing i believe more than anything else, is if it came to a battle with just TNO & MTOY , TNO would eat him up on that hill.
 
Maxbet said:
Do you think Danny boy will have the balls or even the know how to drop him out and come as late as possible....If even a jockey as good as Ruby can admit to getting drawn into a fcuk up because of the pace then this lad will.

The top speed gallop will begin a long way out...the pace will be dictated by Geraghty aboard Jezki and it will be ferocious with a McManus sting in the tail....Don't go with it and he will escape, follow it and the chief benefactor will be MTOY.
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It's a myth that MTOY needs a strong pace; he, HF and OC, are the only horses in the race with the proven gears to win over 2m at tthe top level, whatever the pace. He does need to settle, to conserve that burst of speed for the finishing hill, but that's a lot different from needing an attritional pace, and Jezki will no doubt be ridden accordingly.
Twister might go daft on TNO, as he's one that lacks a killer turn of foot but, as Noel Fehily showed last year, it's a man's job to judge the pace to win a Champion Hurdle from the front, and I'd strongly doubt he's up to it..
 
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The T-D camp have stated more than once that TNO has one burst and I imagine Sam will be under orders not to deploy it until after the last.

We've also had plenty of top races in the past in which the pace angle has appeared easy to foresee yet the race has unfolded entirely differently.

I watched the Triumph again a couple of times yesterday. While Our Conor was heavily backed and was clearly expected to beat Diakali, could anyone really have expected him to do so quite so easily? They looked to go an even pace (not much came from the back) yet OC was always hack cantering in second until asked to take it up. The form has been franked over and over this season and it is reasonable to assume the winner has improved just as much as the average of those he beat, which would put him ahead of Hurricane Fly.

As I said before, in over 30 years of rating races, no Triumph Hurdle winner, not even the really smart ones, ended up with ratings close to Our Conor's.

I also see Timeform noted his race rating last year was 12lbs higher than the five-year average. That would maybe quell any concerns about his age - he's clearly much better than the average 5yo - and he powered clear without having to be asked for anywhere near maximum effort.

The question is, was he really asked for maximum effort in his two runs against the Fly this season?

I just think if there is a monster in the race, it is Our Conor.
 
Jair Du Cochet would have knocked at the door of Our Conor's rating, if he'd been able to take his chance in a Triumph Hurdle.

I find it amazing that some are prepared to place more stock in OC's undoubtedly imperious victory against fellow juveniles last season, than they are in the fact that he's now been beaten twice by the dual Champion Hurdler, receiving weight both times. They are dreamers looking at the wrong page in the form-book.

There is already a monster in this race.

It is the aforementioned dual Champion Hurdler - Hurricane Fly - and justice will be served in ten days time.
 
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I have zero interest in the banter side but here are my thoughts:

Hurricane Fly is by a reasonable distance the best horse in the race and those who say he hasn't got just recognition are probably right
If this race was in Punchestown/Leopardstown, he would most likely win, and 2/1 would be a decent price
It's not, it's at a track where for me he runs 7/8 pounds worse (and 3 runs is a reasonable sample size).
The fact he won 2 of those 3 races is testament to both his quality but also the quality of those he previously raced against; this year, he is racing 3 horses that are, imho, better than horses from his previous Champion Hurdles
The other point with regard to HF is that he is 10, and must be close to starting to regress slightly. Betting-wise, there is no value in waiting for this to happen, imo, it is likely to start in 10 days
I don't think TNO has quite the same pace as the other 2, and there is a slight question mark about his hurdling; the market is upside down with regard to his chances, he should be the longest priced of the 4. He has never won an all aged Group 1.
Our Connor and MTOY are the 2 I feel have the best chance. I agree with most of DO's post on Our Connor, but will just repeat his point that this looks all over a horse who has had his campaign built around the Champion Hurdle, and I think he will improve at least half a stone in 10 days time.
MTOY travels like a rare quality of horse, was pulling away from TNO at the end of Kempton, and if he continues to learn how to settle, he looks like he could be a Champion horse. His hurdling is excellent, and whilst there was a slight worry as to his fight in a finish, I think Kempton was a huge plus on this point.

I think the market is upside down with regard to the front 4, and think MTOY and Our Connor are big ew bets at 9/2. I may add Jezki to place.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Jair Du Cochet would have knocked at the door of Our Conor's rating, if he'd been able to take his chance in a Triumph Hurdle.

I find it amazing that some are prepared to place more stock in OC's undoubtedly imperious victory against fellow juveniles last season, than they are in the fact that he's now been beaten twice by the dual Champion Hurdler, receiving weight both times. They are dreamers looking at the wrong page in the form-book.

There is already a monster in this race.

It is the aforementioned dual Champion Hurdler - Hurricane Fly - and justice will be served in ten days time.
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Jair Du Cochet pretty much sparked a new era in juvenile hurdling. He started posting ratings that I was finding hard to believe but a flood of other French imports pretty much offered strong evidence either that our trainers were until then taking things too easy with juveniles or they were pretty ordinary. The latter seems unlikely since the likes of Persian War and See You Then were great champions in their own right.

But ratings in the 138-143 mark suddenly became second rate as first JDC then Katarino etc started hitting 150+. That's been the pattern for some years now, yet OC was, according to Timeform, 12lbs better than the previous 5 year average, and my figure for OC is some way beyond that.

I know a lot of people don't buy into the 'take .. out' argument, but take OC out of the Triumph and we'd still be saying it was a very solid renewal given the way the form has panned out.

Grassy, go back and have a look at last year's Triumph.

Of course it isn't the Champion Hurdle. Of course I wouldn't dream of saying the form is good enough to win the Champion Hurdle.

But it would be good enough for second or third place - before taking into account natural improvement (averaging about 10-12lbs if the other juveniles are anything to go by).
 
Why when the horse is so clearly called Our Conor do so many forum members feel the need to add an " N' as if he were Tom O'Connor ???

I was concerned a little by the way he seemed to curl up close home at Leopardstown last time but my biggest fear is Danny Mullins - Ireland's answer to Tom Scudamore - he is very likely to make a hash of it .
 
Desert Orchid said:
I know a lot of people don't buy into the 'take .. out' argument, but take OC out of the Triumph and we'd still be saying it was a very solid renewal given the way the form has panned out.
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I'd be arguing the opposite to be honest. I think the form of last years Triumph has worked out poory. Take the top 3, Our Conor, Far West & Sametegal. Those 3 horses have run 11 times between them since that race with only Semetagal winning once. That's a fairly poor return.

You have to go back to the 4th horse Diakali to get a bit of decent form in France when he beat Pitit Zig, a 66/1 shot for the champion hurdle.

Dessie Hughes is on record as saying 'Our Conor excels around Cheltenham. That's a bit of a misleading statement, sure he has a 100% record there but he's raced once there in a poor Triumph. Bob's Worth excels around there, he's 5/5 at the track. Hurricane Fly excels around Leopardstown but to say OC excels around Cheltenham is very premature in my opinion.
 
Hamm said:
I have zero interest in the banter side but here are my thoughts:

Hurricane Fly is by a reasonable distance the best horse in the race and those who say he hasn't got just recognition are probably right
If this race was in Punchestown/Leopardstown, he would most likely win, and 2/1 would be a decent price
It's not, it's at a track where for me he runs 7/8 pounds worse (and 3 runs is a reasonable sample size).
The fact he won 2 of those 3 races is testament to both his quality but also the quality of those he previously raced against; this year, he is racing 3 horses that are, imho, better than horses from his previous Champion Hurdles
The other point with regard to HF is that he is 10, and must be close to starting to regress slightly. Betting-wise, there is no value in waiting for this to happen, imo, it is likely to start in 10 days
I don't think TNO has quite the same pace as the other 2, and there is a slight question mark about his hurdling; the market is upside down with regard to his chances, he should be the longest priced of the 4. He has never won an all aged Group 1.
Our Connor and MTOY are the 2 I feel have the best chance. I agree with most of DO's post on Our Connor, but will just repeat his point that this looks all over a horse who has had his campaign built around the Champion Hurdle, and I think he will improve at least half a stone in 10 days time.
MTOY travels like a rare quality of horse, was pulling away from TNO at the end of Kempton, and if he continues to learn how to settle, he looks like he could be a Champion horse. His hurdling is excellent, and whilst there was a slight worry as to his fight in a finish, I think Kempton was a huge plus on this point.

I think the market is upside down with regard to the front 4, and think MTOY and Our Connor are big ew bets at 9/2. I may add Jezki to place.
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Well argued.

Regarding the age angle, the evidence so far is that Fly is still up there but you never know when the decline might start. About Cheltenham, it might be that the downhill section is not his favourite part of the track but he knows how to get up the hill.

Our Conor has his campaign geared to next week for sure, but so does every other horse in the race, so I don't know that he will pull out an extra 7lbs relative to them. He was a monster relative to his age group last year but that could be down to him maturing more quickly and there might not be as much improvement to come as some imagine.

I agree with you that MTOY is a bigger threat than The New One. His cruising speed is impressive but if (when, more likely) it comes down to an eye to eye battle I would rather be with the Fly.
 
So many arguments, so many differing opinions, it's great. I just can't wait until The New One changes a lot of people's minds.
 
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