Champion Hurdle 2014

Hamm said:
I have zero interest in the banter side but here are my thoughts:

Hurricane Fly is by a reasonable distance the best horse in the race and those who say he hasn't got just recognition are probably right
If this race was in Punchestown/Leopardstown, he would most likely win, and 2/1 would be a decent price
It's not, it's at a track where for me he runs 7/8 pounds worse (and 3 runs is a reasonable sample size).
The fact he won 2 of those 3 races is testament to both his quality but also the quality of those he previously raced against; this year, he is racing 3 horses that are, imho, better than horses from his previous Champion Hurdles
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:thumbsup: someone else can see it aswell. All to clearly alas
 
edgt said:
Agree with you DO.
One day only on Our Conor's radar.
Once The Fly passed him Danny was not at all severe on him.
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Isn't the point that HF passed him?
Having one run on the flat - in late October - is hardly the kind of prep you'd expect for a horse that wouldn't be seriously raced until March, and I doubt OC will find any more improvement for fitness than the other lightly campaigned principals.
For mine. OC is a speed horse. It's what won him a Triumph, and he's shown it in both his subsequent hurdle races. However, he's proven unable to maintain that speed twice at the very top level, and I see no reason to suppose he'll fare better in a better race a week Tuesday..
Next year; maybe, but nothing in his form suggests he'll do so this.
 
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Yes, a very sober analysis. Thing is, everybody has an opinion but nobody really has a clue - and that is why this race is a true gem.

Anybody who is 100% convinced then I applaud you (and Grassy that includes you) but you are clearly deluded.
 
wilsonl said:
Yes, a very sober analysis. Thing is, everybody has an opinion but nobody really has a clue - and that is why this race is a true gem.

Anybody who is 100% convinced then I applaud you (and Grassy that includes you) but you are clearly deluded.
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Most accurate post so far
 
edgt said:
Hence this is post 2085 on this thread !
The joys of talking horses!
"Everyone has an opinion; what is yours worth ? "as the jingle goes.
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It's called filling the vacuum created by the Festival!
Just 1 of the first 6 in the betting has run since late January (and that in a jumpers bumper) and you could count the worthwhile discussion of other races during that period on the fingers of a man with no arms.
Roll on the Lincoln.:ninja:
 
I think the ground issue has been overplayed in relation to outsider Melodic Rendevous.
His sire Where Or When won a Queen Elizebeth at Ascot on Gd-Fm ground, Melodic himself won the 35K Elite Handicap Hurdle at Wincanton in November on Good-Soft, thus I reckon this horse may go nicely on any ground, and can't fault him for having to win his races on Heavy. We'll see, but if there is any e/w value left in the race this appears to be with Melodic Rendevous.
The fancied four cannot all win, there's every chance a horse like Melodic Rendevous can't upset the form guru's getting involved in the process too.
 
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There's nearly always a good longshot at proper e-w odds in the Champion Hurdle.

The first I remember latching on to was Past Master (stable mate of Night Nurse, iirc) being placed at something like 66s or 100s.

I also recall one of Istabraq's races. The cameras were on O'Brien and his entourage and after the winner passed the line he turned away in triumph before turning back to see the rest of the race. A stable mate ran on into third at a big price and you could hear one of the lads saying, 'He got there... that's the gamble landed!"
 
Desert Orchid said:
There's nearly always a good longshot at proper e-w odds in the Champion Hurdle.

The first I remember latching on to was Past Master (stable mate of Night Nurse, iirc) being placed at something like 66s or 100s.

I also recall one of Istabraq's races. The cameras were on O'Brien and his entourage and after the winner passed the line he turned away in triumph before turning back to see the rest of the race. A stable mate ran on into third at a big price and you could hear one of the lads saying, 'He got there... that's the gamble landed!"
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Indeed, don't forget my namesake Marble Arch either!

Have I persuaded you about Melodic Rendevouz yet, DO? :)
 
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I don't think there's any value in MR's price (16-25), even as an e-w stab. If there is a big priced placed horse it might end up being Ptit Zig (OR 7lb higher than MR's), currently 33-50s. And if they decide to race Thousand Stars, whose OR is in the low 160s I think, for third place rather than make the pace then 100/1 would look generous.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't think there's any value in MR's price (16-25), even as an e-w stab. If there is a big priced placed horse it might end up being Ptit Zig (OR 7lb higher than MR's), currently 33-50s. And if they decide to race Thousand Stars, whose OR is in the low 160s I think, for third place rather than make the pace then 100/1 would look generous.
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Now to me your definition of what constitutes value is bonkers!

Melodic put away Ptit Zig last time by 5 lengths. I could make arguments for why that margin will be much higher in the CH. As for Thousand Stars, if I was given a free £20 e/w on the race, I'd rather back Melodic Rendezvous at 16's-25 who I believe could cause an upset, than Thousand Stars at a thousand-to-one, who of course... has no chance.
 
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sunybay said:
Thousand stars is finished
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He only starts warming-up at this time of year.

I reckon they will swerve Chelts and send him to Aintree a fresh horse. I'm not convinced he's good enough to win the Aintree Hurdle (or the Rabobank, for that matter), but they will act as good preps for his main targets at Auteuil in the summer.
 
Grasshopper said:
He only starts warming-up at this time of year.

I reckon they will swerve Chelts and send him to Aintree a fresh horse. I'm not convinced he's good enough to win the Aintree Hurdle (or the Rabobank, for that matter), but they will act as good preps for his main targets at Auteuil in the summer.
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I have been a fan of the horse in the past
Now i think he is finished
 
marble said:
Now to me your definition of what constitutes value is bonkers!

Melodic put away Ptit Zig last time by 5 lengths. I could make arguments for why that margin will be much higher in the CH..
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I dont think ptit zihuatanejo run his race that day.
 
wilsonl said:
Yes, a very sober analysis. Thing is, everybody has an opinion but nobody really has a clue - and that is why this race is a true gem.

Anybody who is 100% convinced then I applaud you (and Grassy that includes you) but you are clearly deluded.
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Anything can happen on the day. Yes its a gem, but the clues are there...
 
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