He was also giving 8Ibs away from an uphill launch pad
He's alwats struck me as being a horse who possessed tactical acceleration, possibly the only one of the recent crop who could compete with Hurricane Fly on that score. He first came to my attention (like he would a few peoples) when he skipped away at Warwick. He followed up doing the same to Fishers Cross at Cheltenham (probably went too early) but as McCoy said on the winner at the time in immediate winning post interview "sometimes the best horse doesn't win". I took the 6/1 at that point, and was counting my money after the first curcuit of the Neptune. They went so slow there that the extra half mile wasn't going to make any difference and it would come down to a sprint. again he skipped away from the field with a decisive burst of acceleration and won. At Liverpool he was stretched a lot more thorughout the duration of the race, but was a novice taking on older horses. In last years Xmas hurdle we saw the same thing as when defeated by Fishers. He accelerated away from My Tent, but was eventually overhauled as he ran out of steam
The horse he most reminds me of (perversely) is George Washington. He had that ability to opne up 2 or 3L's in the space of half a furlong and then try and defend it. His great asset is tactical acceleration, but a stop watch needn't tell you this. Even a sectional analysis can conceal it, and especially if it's spread between two timing points. What you really need to check out whether your eyes are decieving you is a radar speed gun like those used to stick 9pts on Live's driving license, othjerwise you're relying on your eyes. Well I'm a poor judge to the eye, but to me, he looks like an accelerator, and I'm sure if NTD had ever armed himself with a some proper performance telemetry he'd stop spouting this unproven nonesense about 3 miles.
The only way the New One becomes a factor at three miles is if they go slow - slow - fast and the race becomes a jog and sprint. His Neptune was the slowest renewal I hold a record for, but this was because of pace.
If you take the view that it could be a slow tactical affair in March (and they sometimes happen) then I'll be tempted by The New One and Hurricane Fly in a reverse forecast as the two horses I think have the most tactical speed, but since this market is invariably the most mature from an ante post point of view, I personally don't intend wasting much more time looking at it. The Champion Hurdle in the last decade has been pretty well priced up accurately months away and it's really just a case of picking one and crossing your fingers it gets there. Bear in minf though that it's very unusual for all five at the front of the market on Dec 31st to get there in March, so I'd expect some more casulaties yet and it's being on the right side of this lottery that defines the value for the most part as prices more often than not repsond to the field thinning out rather than any informative runs, most of which were anticipated and discounted in the price before the race
