Champion Hurdle 2015

Of all the firms already going NRNB, BET365 currently best priced @ 22/1.
BET 365 are also the only firm currently offering BOG on the CH.
 
he tipped annie power last year didn't he?

seems daft picking a horse that might not even give you a run for your money
 
Made perfect sense to pick Arctic Fire. Predictable yes, choices were thin on the ground.

Pace and better ground will suit. Whether he's good enough reflects the price. Who else is going to gatecrash I ask.
 
JamesRB said:
stable already mob handed. he could sweve the race/cheltenham for something else in the end.
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Faugheen, Fly and Arctic Fire are each in separate ownership, so I don't think the trainer would deny any of them a chance of glory in the biggest race of the year.
 
Frankel said:
Made perfect sense to pick Arctic Fire. Predictable yes, choices were thin on the ground.

Pace and better ground will suit. Whether he's good enough reflects the price. Who else is going to gatecrash I ask.
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okay, I've mentioned this before but at the time purely tongue in cheek in response to those who were starting to consider Arctic Fire

Arctic Fire

As I see it these are the form-lines people are considering when giving him a chance in the Champion Hurdle, as the rest of his form gives him a mountain to climb.

  • As a 5 year old in Dec 14 is 3rd, beaten 1L by Jezki (level weights) in the Ryanair Hurdle
  • County hurdle last March, is beaten 1/2L off 10-13 (OR 141)
  • Has contested 10 GB+IRE hurdle races
  • Has earned £73 K to-date

Diakali

  • As a 4 year old in Dec 13 is 3rd beaten 2L by the then 5yo Jezki (in receipt of 4lb WFA) in the Hatton's Grace
  • Country hurdle last March, is beaten 4 3/4L off 11-12 (OR 154)
  • On his subsequent and last UK contest finished in a 3 way photo with The New One and Rock On Ruby over a trip they're arguably more suited to at Aintree
  • Has contested 9 GB+IRE hurdle races (+4 in France, of which the latter was over an extreme distance on testing ground)
  • Has earned £308 K to-date

Aside from the races mentioned above and from when trying to make all in Our Connor's Triumph (still managed to hold on for a more than respectable fourth, all things considered) Diakali's domestic hurdles form has been excellent and in fact reads;

1st by 2L (2m G3)
1st by 2L (2m G1)
2nd btn 5L (2m G1 behind Our Connor)
1st by 28L (2 m G3)
1st by 12L (2 miles maiden)


Mullins' campaigning of him has been questionable to say the least - surely as a flat bred he was unlikely to stay 3 1/4 miles and arguably his best races have been run on decent ground - so what on earth was he doing in that Auteuil race in June ?

but that said there is nothing I have seen that comes close to explaining why Arctic Fire is now as short as 14/1 for the Champion and yet Diakali is available at 66/1.


Interestingly Mullins is quoted in this morning's RP as saying they're both likely to run in the ICH.

Am I saying Diakali can with the Champion Hurdle ?. Not really but IMO he has at least as good a chance as Arctic Fire and if there is to be a 3rd WPM horse lining up for the big one (assuming Hurricance Fly does go there) then I think in 12 days time it's more likely to be Diakali of the above two.
 
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Grey said:
Faugheen, Fly and Arctic Fire are each in separate ownership, so I don't think the trainer would deny any of them a chance of glory in the biggest race of the year.
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You might want to ask the owner of UDS....or indeed Annier Power.....whether that rings entirely true, Art!

Edit: Len got there before me.
 
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wilsonl said:
okay, I've mentioned this before but at the time purely tongue in cheek in response to those who were starting to consider Arctic Fire

Arctic Fire

As I see it these are the form-lines people are considering when giving him a chance in the Champion Hurdle, as the rest of his form gives him a mountain to climb.

  • As a 5 year old in Dec 14 is 3rd, beaten 1L by Jezki (level weights) in the Ryanair Hurdle
  • County hurdle last March, is beaten 1/2L off 10-13 (OR 141)
  • Has contested 10 GB+IRE hurdle races
  • Has earned £73 K to-date

Diakali

  • As a 4 year old in Dec 13 is 3rd beaten 2L by the then 5yo Jezki (in receipt of 4lb WFA) in the Hatton's Grace
  • Country hurdle last March, is beaten 4 3/4L off 11-12 (OR 154)
  • On his subsequent and last UK contest finished in a 3 way photo with The New One and Rock On Ruby over a trip they're arguably more suited to at Aintree
  • Has contested 9 GB+IRE hurdle races (+4 in France, of which the latter was over an extreme distance on testing ground)
  • Has earned £308 K to-date

Aside from the races mentioned above and from when trying to make all in Our Connor's Triumph (still managed to hold on for a more than respectable fourth, all things considered) Diakali's domestic hurdles form has been excellent and in fact reads;

1st by 2L (2m G3)
1st by 2L (2m G1)
2nd btn 5L (2m G1 behind Our Connor)
1st by 28L (2 m G3)
1st by 12L (2 miles maiden)


Mullins' campaigning of him has been questionable to say the least - surely as a flat bred he was unlikely to stay 3 1/4 miles and arguably his best races have been run on decent ground - so what on earth was he doing in that Auteuil race in June ?

but that said there is nothing I have seen that comes close to explaining why Arctic Fire is now as short as 14/1 for the Champion and yet Diakali is available at 66/1.


Interestingly Mullins is quoted in this morning's RP as saying they're both likely to run in the ICH.

Am I saying Diakali can with the Champion Hurdle ?. Not really but IMO he has at least as good a chance as Arctic Fire and if there is to be a 3rd WPM horse lining up for the big one (assuming Hurricance Fly does go there) then I think in 12 days time it's more likely to be Diakali of the above two.
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Good post, wilsonl.
 
Diakali had pretty-much the same credentials last year, but was used to manage the weight for Arctic Fire in the Coral Cup. I'm not convinced they'll have a change of mind this time around.
 
Thanks DO.

Grass - If they both run in the Irish Champion and Diakali comes out on top, with no hard luck stories etc. then which one are they more likely to send to the Cheltenham equivalent ?

Quite possibly none, maybe Diakali, but I doubt it would be Arctic Fire in those circumstances and on most, if not all known form to date he will finish behind Diakali in two weeks time.
 
It's a fair enough position to adopt, Lee, if you think Arctic Fire didn't necessarily improve in the Ryanair, and don't believe him capable of further improvement as he gets races under his belt.

AF is an odd animal; possibly looking slightly exposed as not good enough in his runs prior to the Ryanair - which does look slightly anomalous when set against his other outings.

Ones view of the Ryanair form, and AF's proximity to HF and Jezki, will undoubtedly colour ones view as to how good AF is, relative to Diakali. Overall, I'm neutral.Diakali was one of the no-mans-land types I was referring to in an earlier post, and there's every chance that he and Actic Fire are of very similar ability, imo.
 
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I'd agree with that insomuch there's probably not much between them yet one is now 3 x the price of the other and as Mullins has already suggested he aims to run both in the Irish version I just think Arctic Fire is a risky AP proposition for March.

He finshes 3rd to Hurricane Fly & Jezki again and his price doesn't really change or maybe shortens slightly but if he also has Diakali in front of him...
 
Will he really run both Diakali and Arctic Fire in the ICH?

If the former does run, I'd expect it to be not a great deal more than a pipe-opener, in preparation for spring targets at Aintree and Auteuil - the 'Thousand Stars' approach, if you like. Even if they get him race-ready at the end of the month, it's a tough ask to finish in front of AF first-time-out, and on balance, I'd expect AF to beat him most times (given the particular circumstances)

I'm not expecting any price-crash from AF (or to get rich trying), hence the Lay target-price of 18. It's mainly a scientific bet, to see what impact Segal's advice has on the CH market. With people still happy to lay between 22-25 to the tune of a monkey, his impact would appear to have been marginal.
 
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Likely they will be campaigned differently being in same ownership. Think Diakali will need further than 2 miles to be shown at his best.
Granted a mega run in the Irish could change that. Though it will be his 1st run so will be up against it.

Agree in that I don't think he needed subjecting to that trip last season.
 
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Whatever happens in the ICH (a win is out-of-the-question, imo), I reckon Diakali swerves Cheltenham and runs in the Aintree Hurdle instead.

He was close-enough to TNO in the race last year, and that came on the back of a mighty-run under top-weight in the County (thanks, Frankel). There's a case to be made that Diakali lost the Aintree Hurdle at Cheltenham, and given they have at least two runners who are fundamentally better - and another in the same ownership who is a potential CH candidate based on Ryanair form - there's every chance they will choose not to run at the Festival, and focus on Aintree, and then Auteuil, instead.
 
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