Champion Hurdle 2015

Introducing a specific parameter like consistency shifts the goalposts to an extent, as I suggested in the Best Mate quip.

My remark about HF not being also in the top 10 all-time hurdlers was also a tad tongue-in-cheek and designed to spark renewed debate in a thread which has been a bit stale for some time and turned nasty until EC1 felt obliged to deprive us of his invaluable input.

I don't think long-term consistency is a criterion for greatness itself. Beating trees once a month could be achieved by your average sandhopper. Prescott gets donkeys to rack up a row of 1s once he's got a beast's mark low enough to start with.

Sure, the Fly can only beat what's put up against him. He's a very good horse. But the opposition isn't great. For most of Istabraq's career it was the same. I remember looking forward to the form book instalment landing on the hall floor so that I could give him another 180+ rating. It didn't happen. He was hacking up time and again against moderate opponents. But he was hacking up. Only when he was undercooked or met heavy ground did he look vulnerable. He regularly ran in advance of 170 but often looked to have a good 10 lengths in reserve.

Hurricane Fly suffers from being in a moderate era for hurdlers but so did Istabraq, whose contemporaries were, if anything, even more moderate than HF's. But every now and again he really laughed at them.

If I were being generous, I could maybe do a Rick Blane and make a place available for HF just as the cafe owner did for Victor Lazlo but who do I move away from Sam at the piano? Hattons Grace? Sir Ken? Rooster Booster? :whistle:

Then again, am I allowed to include Golden Cygnet among my all-time top ten? Valiramix? Dondieu?
 
For the record, my highest rating so far for the grossly over-rated The New One is 167, a good half-a-stone shy of HF's best.
 
I reckon he's agood horse racing at the wrong trip and win the World Hurdle next year...once they get this CH nonsense out there system
 
DO, Valiramix would have gone on to hack-up from those leading-lights HorsLa Loi III and Marble Arch, and in form terms, he didn't achieve anything like as much as Hurricane Fly has. The fact you have him rated higher, rather explains the content of the rest of your post, which I think demonstrates you continue to underestimate HF.

Consistency is a key component of greatness. The ability to execute to your very best (or close too it) in every outing, regardless of the prevailing circumstances or opposition....and to do that over a number of years, is what separates the 'Great' from the mere 'Very Good'.

You're entitled to your opinion, though- even when it's wrong. :D
 
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Walsh in no apparent hurry to choose between Hurricane Fly and Faugheen, if reports today are anything to go by.
 
Agreed.

I wish he'd just get his finger out, declare for Faugheen, and Townend cop the ride in the ICH.
 
Grasshopper said:
DO, Valiramix would have gone on to hack-up from those leading-lights HorsLa Loi III and Marble Arch, and in form terms, he didn't achieve anything like as much as Hurricane Fly has. The fact you have him rated higher, rather explains the content of the rest of your post, which I think demonstrates you continue to underestimate HF.

Consistency is a key component of greatness. The ability to execute to your very best (or close too it) in every outing, regardless of the prevailing circumstances or opposition....and to do that over a number of years, is what separates the 'Great' from the mere 'Very Good'.

You're entitled to your opinion, though- even when it's wrong. :D
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I wasn't seriously suggesting Valiramix & co would be in my top ten, just that there might be a case for asking 'what might have been?' The three I mentioned just happened to be [among] those I killed.

That was indeed a strange Champion Hurdle but Valiramix had given Hors La Loi a 43lbs(++) beating just before that and there were two subsequent Ces winners well beaten. Oh, and a certain Istabraq was well beaten off when he pulled up :). Bilboa fairly drags the form kicking and screaming towards the grubber, though.

I don't have a problem with my opinion being wrong; just so long as it isn't rubbished for no good reason.

I could get quite serious and do a trawl of past champions and put up my top 3 ratings for the ones I actually rated but tbh I can't be arsed. (It would mean going up the loft and digging through past annuals but it's baltic up there and I have a life to live.) I can only take others' word for the ability of the likes of Sir Ken. I suspect HF would be knocking at the door of the all-time top ten and would almost certainly be in there based just on the ones I can rate.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Introducing a specific parameter like consistency shifts the goalposts to an extent, as I suggested in the Best Mate quip.

My remark about HF not being also in the top 10 all-time hurdlers was also a tad tongue-in-cheek and designed to spark renewed debate in a thread which has been a bit stale for some time and turned nasty until EC1 felt obliged to deprive us of his invaluable input.

I don't think long-term consistency is a criterion for greatness itself. Beating trees once a month could be achieved by your average sandhopper. Prescott gets donkeys to rack up a row of 1s once he's got a beast's mark low enough to start with.

Sure, the Fly can only beat what's put up against him. He's a very good horse. But the opposition isn't great. For most of Istabraq's career it was the same. I remember looking forward to the form book instalment landing on the hall floor so that I could give him another 180+ rating. It didn't happen. He was hacking up time and again against moderate opponents. But he was hacking up. Only when he was undercooked or met heavy ground did he look vulnerable. He regularly ran in advance of 170 but often looked to have a good 10 lengths in reserve.

Hurricane Fly suffers from being in a moderate era for hurdlers but so did Istabraq, whose contemporaries were, if anything, even more moderate than HF's. But every now and again he really laughed at them.

If I were being generous, I could maybe do a Rick Blane and make a place available for HF just as the cafe owner did for Victor Lazlo but who do I move away from Sam at the piano? Hattons Grace? Sir Ken? Rooster Booster? :whistle:

Then again, am I allowed to include Golden Cygnet among my all-time top ten? Valiramix? Dondieu?
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How old are you DO Sir Ken? Hatton's Grace? First one I remember is Magic Court and I went to school with Jesus :blink:

And where on earth does Rooster Booster fit into things....he and Sublimity were the 2 worst winners of the Champion Hurdle I have seen.

Rooster Booster was a top class Handicapper who won a ridiculously bad Champion Hurdle a race in which the trainer of a leading fancy said "If he wins this it will have to be one bad race"

There really weren't any decent hurlers around at the time and his 170 rating would have been 165 at best if racing during the Fly's time.

If I were to be asked the poorest Champion Hurdle winner I would start with Sublimity, then Rooster Booster, others like Saucy Kit For Auction Flakey Dove Collier Bay, Hardy Eustace Brave Inca Katchit would have been easy meat for Hurricane Fly.

You ask if Golden Gygnet etc should be included.............Golden Cygnet was an outstanding novice and looked really special but was killed way too early in his career to say whether he would have sustained his form long enough to become a True Champion........Personally I have little doubt that he would have and was such a talent maybe even the best we have ever seen but it was not to be so NO you can't include him.........and that's final:lol:

Much depends what one means by Champion Hurdler. As far as I am concerned winning the Champion Hurdle doesn't make you a Champion.

Persian War was a True Champion, as were Hurricane Fly, Night Nurse, Bula, Istabraq, Comedy of Errors, Sea Pigeon and little Monksfield who not only won 2 Champion Hurdles but threw in 3 Aintree Hurdles for good measure.......These horse not only won Champion Hurdles but took on all comers.

Look at what we have today Jezki who runs round getting his ass kicked all season then win a Champion Hurdle against a horse who wouldn't have blown wind up any of the aforementioned backsides.

The fact Hurricane Fly doesn't seem to be at his best at Cheltenham but despite that still managed to win a Champion Hurdle stands him in good stead. He did so after a run of 4 consecutive grade 1 wins and increased it to 16 out of 17, a run only interrupted by his defeat by Rock on Ruby at Cheltenham. To even hint that Hurricane Fly is not in the top 10 CHAMPION Hurdlers is a joke even if you add Sir Ken and Hatton's Grace he is till in the top 10
 
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The only Champion hurdle winner better than Rooster Booster I have seen was Istabraq.


But i imagine for You
denman and arkle were handicappers
 
Tanlic said:
How old are you DO Sir Ken? Hatton's Grace? First one I remember is Magic Court and I went to school with Jesus :blink:
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My age is irrelevant if we are talking about 'all time'. Sir Ken & Hatton's Grace were well before my time but they are down in the annals of greats so I mentioned them. In a generation or two people will probably mention HF too, without knowing he would always be in the relegation dogfight.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My age is irrelevant if we are talking about 'all time'. Sir Ken & Hatton's Grace were well before my time but they are down in the annals of greats so I mentioned them. In a generation or two people will probably mention HF too, without knowing he would always be in the relegation dogfight.
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For anyone interested, this is what we call irony. :whistle:
 
I think Istabraq would have had HF measure. Just that bit more class and able to travel stronger off a pace. Just because Istabraq didnt take on Moscow Flyer or Limestone Lad in England doesn't mean that he didn't beat grade 1 horses. I thought Istabraq was most impressive when beating a fit Limestone Lad at Tipperary one year. Do you rate those races DO? HF's last five grade 1s are where he beat the current champion hurdler and are called Grade 1 in name only. I find that strange. Is it only what happens in Cheltenham that counts. Rooster Boosters claim of being above average doesn't take into account that it was Westender, who blew the start, that finished second to him. Im guessing it was his Tote Gold Trophy efforts. Would Westender beat three times second Theatreword on the big day?
 
Plenty of Rooster Booster fans cant seem to understand why he was mullered 5l by Hardy Eustace. Plenty of unwarranted blame for Richard Johnson, Im guessing. Find it hard to square the idea that Rooster Booster was above average and Hardy Eustace was below average. Not sure Rooster Booster could ever beat him in a Grade 1 championship race.
 
HawkWing said:
I think Istabraq would have had HF measure. Just that bit more class and able to travel stronger off a pace. Just because Istabraq didnt take on Moscow Flyer or Limestone Lad in England doesn't mean that he didn't beat grade 1 horses. I thought Istabraq was most impressive when beating a fit Limestone Lad at Tipperary one year. Do you rate those races DO? HF's last five grade 1s are where he beat the current champion hurdler and are called Grade 1 in name only. I find that strange. Is it only what happens in Cheltenham that counts. Rooster Boosters claim of being above average doesn't take into account that it was Westender, who blew the start, that finished second to him. Im guessing it was his Tote Gold Trophy efforts. Would Westender beat three times second Theatreword on the big day?
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Istabraq would have been 'way too good for HF. Your point about the Irish races is well worth making but it throws up a difficulty. Those days - someone please do correct me if I'm wrong - I'm pretty sure were before the official alignment of the better Irish horses with the British ones. There was a difference between the ratings before then but an agreement was reached a few years back whereby the respective senior handicappers discussed and agreed a rating for the Irish horses. Until then the Irish ratings were some way below the UK ones, as they still are lower down the rankings. Again, I won't be going back through the old form books because of the physical difficulties it wold involve for me.

As for old Foghorn Leghorn, long-term forumites will remember I highlighted his chances immediately after he beat Mr Cool at Kempton on his 02-03 seasonal debut. Mr Cool was a well established mid-150s horse and off for his life but RB was never off a tight rein to dismiss him with contempt. That form alone wouldn't have been good enough on its own. It was the promise of what was in reserve that screamed out 170+ to me.

I was at Cheltenham for his next race and was talking to Ardross and erstwhile forumite terry about him being a stone cold bonking cert for the Greatwood. Ardross was open-minded about it but terry was highly sceptical. After the race he shook my hand and told me I was dead right. Quazar had been a good second (btn under 2L) in the Elite off the same 137 but the grey, off 155, hacked all over him, again putting distance (9 lengths) between them without coming off the bit, posting a rating easily in excess of 170.

And still people weren't convinced.

His CH win stacks up, even taking account of Westender in second but that's old ground. EC1 got fed up explaining that race too.

When he went for his repeat on 04, he left his prospects behind at Newbury in the tote Gold Trophy. I've mentioned before that BrianH and I had a gentlemen's arrangement regarding the CH that year, made before the TGT. Off 166 in arguably the most difficult handicap hurdle of the season, RB had plenty of naysayers but was ultimately backed down to 9/2f. Only serious money can do that. He got a poor ride that day and ended up having a much harder race than necessary, being short-headed by Geos. Quazar got a 16lbs beating and Westender a 15lbs beating. Lord H pmd me that evening to offer to settle, which I accepted. The amount you need in hand of your mark to win a TGT is a minimum of 7lbs and an average of over 12lbs.

This was Persian War stuff.

When Hurricane Fly wins the TGT equivalent (Betfair) or County Hurdle off 166, I'll cement him in the top ten.
 
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Istabraq and Persian War are some way clear of a dozen Champion Hurdle winners for me. There are several I would agree as sub-standard winners but wouldn't agree with some on Tanlic's list, specifically in relation to Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace, who I include in that dozen along with the likes of Hurricane Fly. The others I agree were winners of sub-standard renewals, or won races that were miscalculated by jockeys on better horses, Sublimity being the most obvious example of being the beneficiary of the latter, and Katchit and Punjabi being the winners of the worst Champion Hurdles of my lifetime. Rooster Booster's was also the winner of a weak renewal in my opinion, but was certainly a better winner than Katchit and Punjabi.

I have the utmost respect for DO's handicap marks, particularly with 2 mile hurdlers, and his ability to find potential Champion Hurdle class contenders, and in my opinion he was on the mark with Rooster Booster in relation to the Grade 1 opposition of the time. I was another who was a doubter, and I freely admit DO was right and I was hopelessly wrong. Getting this right with a progressive handicapper is only likely to happen in a season where there in an unproven 170+ multiple Grade 1 winner though, and the research against probability of finding the winner this way is all about the relative merits of the opposition.

For example if there was to be a surprise contender come form the handicapping ranks this season a la Rooster Booster it's unlikely said contender would be good enough to beat the top three in the market unless the race fell apart or was run at a false pace.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Istabraq would have been 'way too good for HF. Your point about the Irish races is well worth making but it throws up a difficulty. Those days - someone please do correct me if I'm wrong - I'm pretty sure were before the official alignment of the better Irish horses with the British ones. There was a difference between the ratings before then but an agreement was reached a few years back whereby the respective senior handicappers discussed and agreed a rating for the Irish horses. Until then the Irish ratings were some way below the UK ones, as they still are lower down the rankings. Again, I won't be going back through the old form books because of the physical difficulties it wold involve for me.

As for old Foghorn Leghorn, long-term forumites will remember I highlighted his chances immediately after he beat Mr Cool at Kempton on his 02-03 seasonal debut. Mr Cool was a well established mid-150s horse and off for his life but RB was never off a tight rein to dismiss him with contempt. That form alone wouldn't have been good enough on its own. It was the promise of what was in reserve that screamed out 170+ to me.

I was at Cheltenham for his next race and was talking to Ardross and erstwhile forumite terry about him being a stone cold bonking cert for the Greatwood. Ardross was open-minded about it but terry was highly sceptical. After the race he shook my hand and told me I was dead right. Quazar had been a good second (btn under 2L) in the Elite off the same 137 but the grey, off 155, hacked all over him, again putting distance (9 lengths) between them without coming off the bit, posting a rating easily in excess of 170.

And still people weren't convinced.

His CH win stacks up, even taking account of Westender in second but that's old ground. EC1 got fed up explaining that race too.

When he went for his repeat on 04, he left his prospects behind at Newbury in the tote Gold Trophy. I've mentioned before that BrianH and I had a gentlemen's arrangement regarding the CH that year, made before the TGT. Off 166 in arguably the most difficult handicap hurdle of the season, RB had plenty of naysayers but was ultimately backed down to 9/2f. Only serious money can do that. He got a poor ride that day and ended up having a much harder race than necessary, being short-headed by Geos. Quazar got a 16lbs beating and Westender a 15lbs beating. Lord H pmd me that evening to offer to settle, which I accepted. The amount you need in hand of your mark to win a TGT is a minimum of 7lbs and an average of over 12lbs.

This was Persian War stuff.

When Hurricane Fly wins the TGT equivalent (Betfair) or County Hurdle off 166, I'll cement him in the top ten.
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So its not Grade 1 form that you are taking into account with Rooster Booster. Is that the short answer. Hurricane Fly needs to prove himself as a handicapper?

Its definitely arguable that Rooster left his 2nd Champion Hurdle behind him at Newbury when he was hammered by ultimate dual Champion Hurdle winner Hardy Eustace. Fits the narrative I suppose. That he could not repeat his handicap form in Grade 1 suggest those who labelled him "a handicapper" may have been onto something. Needed a breakneck gallop and horses coming back into his lap as his cruising speed carried him forward. He did exactly the same in the second champion, cut through the field but there was a horse at the head who wasn't folding (cos perhaps he was a grade 1 animal , and not Westender, or a 140 rated handicapper getting 1.5 stone)
 
I love Rooster Booster and I remember the day he beat Mr Cool at Kempton, but while he might be a ratings darling, ultimately he had too many holes in his make up to be considered a top ten "champion".
 
HawkWing said:
I love Rooster Booster and I remember the day he beat Mr Cool at Kempton, but while he might be a ratings darling, ultimately he had too many holes in his make up to be considered a top ten "champion".
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A very fair comment. I spent long enough picking holes in Istabraq's form and he only had to really show what he had a couple of times but when he did it was exceptional. I think a lot of the negativity surrounding RB was that he didn't really reach champion level until late in his career and it only lasted a season and a half until, in my opinion, the TGT finished him. He was never the same after that.

Sea Pigeon was, relatively speaking, an underachiever over hurdles until late in his career too yet he is always cited among the best because he was around in the 'golden era'.
 
Maruco said:
For example if there was to be a surprise contender come form the handicapping ranks this season a la Rooster Booster it's unlikely said contender would be good enough to beat the top three in the market unless the race fell apart or was run at a false pace.
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I think such a prospect would have appeared by now but I think the only one of the front three in the market that looks beyond the reach of a big improver is Faugheen. I had hopes, as you know, for Sign of A Victory but he disappointed last time behind Faugheen. Tanlic says there is a reason for that so the flickering candle of hope for that one is still gasping for oxygen, especially as I have it in a big-priced ew double with Road To Riches. I don't see that The New One or Jezki has a 170 performance in its locker. I suspect Faugheen has in excess of 175 and is a hugely exciting prospect.

If Sign Of A Victory wins the Betfair off 150 it wouldn't mean much either, unless it absolutely hacked up, and I mean hard held throughout, as it was at Ascot. After all, higher-rated horses have tried and won, only to end up gubbed at Cheltenham. I also suspect Henderson now realises the CH probably is out of SOAV's reach, unless some misfortune befalls the favourite.
 
HF is 23 from 28 over hurdles and the last 26 in a row have been grade 1's. Istabraq won 23 from 29, he was effectively following the same path as HF each year although the December festival hurdle was a G2 then.

Regardless of how good the opponents are, it takes a special horse to do that. I suspect HF's record will be the same as Isty's after the CH but 24 from 30 after Punchestown and then they'll retire him.

When it comes to the jumps I am a firm believer that longevity and consistency at the highest level are key to a horse being a true champion.
 
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