Champion Hurdle 2015

Here's a scenario that no one has thought of.....Keeping in mind nothing is impossible

What IF Paul Townend rode Arctic Fire last time to ensure he got in the money and was surprised how close he got to Hurricane Fly and Jezki.

Most likely he was. But more importantly let's say it wasn't a fluke.

Accepting he couldn't win beforehand is bound to have been a big factor on how he rode the horse.

This time round realising or believing the horse has improved his attitude and the way he rides the horse could be a lot different.

How exactly he would change it I don't know but what I do know is there's a big difference between riding a horse to get placed and riding a horse to win.

So what happens if Artic Fire beats both Hurricane Fly and Jezki?

Apart from TS Pricewise doing handstands all of a sudden we have a new kid on the block and a different CHampion Hurdle
 
Haven't read the article, but even Tom Segal's RP colleagues take a very different view of Arctic Fire's form than he seems to.
RPR have him improving just 3lbs on his previous high, with HF and Jezki running 13lbs and 12lb respectively below the form of their previous outing.
Considering the pacemaker, Plinth (racing over the wrong trip) was right there until the death, and only 15l behind AF despite being heavily eased, there's good reason to suppose theirs the more accurate view, too.
Jezki, meanwhile, carries on learning his job, until he's ready to be released against all these faux rivals.:)
 
Lotta wishful thinking there Reet.

I don't read Segal once was enough.........He reads my posts :lol:

Jezki still learning is he? That's a weird thing to say about a horse who has won a Champion Hurdle.

When you consider Jezki has won as may times on soft ground as he has on ground closer to good and Arctic Fire needs good ground to be seen at his best then stuff where Plinth finished.

Time and time again that kind of form reading tells you nothing.

If that run is worth anything then Artic Fire should go very close to beating both Hurricane Fly and Jezki who will be more intent than tracking Faugheen than Arctic Fire will be.

His jockey's job is to make sure he settles and he's sure to be doodling round nearer the rear before attempting to come there late.

As I said a week or so ago I doubt if either will get near him and both are highly likely to be legless and the way Arctic Fire is likely to be ridden he must have a fair chance of beating both for the places.

You say Plinth was right there to the death but what you should say is he was right there until the serious racing began and the longer that takes to begin then the closer the no hopers finish.

They didn't just beat Plinth they left him standing like a tree and all 3 put 12 lengths between themselves and him in a very short space of time before he was eased.

If you have a horse that can put 5 lengths between him and and animal like Plinth in that space of time believe me you have got a racehorse.

That said I still have severe doubts about the form of last years race as I don't think the fly was 100% and I am on a different page than most when it comes to Jezki...He would need to hammer Hurricane Fly in the ICH before I would take him serious and any sort of threat to Faugheen.

No one can convince me he isn't more forward that he was last year or that he is much worse condition than he was when beating Hurricane Fly in the Racing Post.

They must realise there's no sense in not having the horse as fit as possible for the up and coming ICH and sitting on a wing and a prayer in the hope they might beat Faugheen when the odds are stacked against them.

I doubt if there's anywhere near as much improvement to be had from Jezki as you are hoping.


If I were backing Jezki I'd rather have 6 times more on him to beat Hurricane Fly than have a 1/6th of that on at 6/1 to try and beat Faugheen beacuse if he can't beat Hurricane Fly this time like he did in the R Post he won't be winning any Champion Hurdle.

IMVHO of course
 
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Jezki's profile against HF this year, is the same as last year.....and it didn't stop him beating HF reasonably comfortably both times at Cheltenham and Punchestown.

It would be insane to dismiss Jezki's Cheltenham chance, were he to again be beaten by the Fly in the ICH, because it is simply a repeat of last year's form-pattern, which was effectively thrown in the skip when the Festivals rolled around.
 
Love your style, Fist; I'm suggesting Jezki's gonna do exactly what he did last year, your proposing Arctic Fire might find the stone or so he needs to beat him - and I'm the wishful thinker. :lol:
 
The only real guide to what Jezki is and isn't lies with Hurricane Fly.

To be perfectly frank I don't see that much difference in Hurricane Fly 2 runs 2 wins everything as usual.

Apart from the Champion Hurdle and his defeat by Jezki there is absolutely nothing in his make up to say he has gone backwards.

When defeated in the Champion Hurdle he actually ran better than he did when defeated by Rock on Ruby and like then he has bounced back and won another 2 Group 1's.

Yes we know he's older but as know through experience not all horses are ready for the paddocks at 10 years of age and some like Sea Pigeon retain their form longer.

Forgetting the Champion Hurdle which I think you'll agree is not his fav pastime. The one he did win wasn't exactly the creme de la creme of Champion Hurdles.

So imo this magical improvement of Jezki's is based or should be based on his defeat of Hurricane Fly in the Racing Post.

Having watched the race a few times Hurricane Fly clearly wasn't himself. You can blame the ground a bit I suppose but he was never really travelling with any authority. He jumped reasonably well but 3 or 4 times he backed off his hurdles, didn't jump with his usual fluency and lost a couple of lengths at them. Even before they turned for home Ruby looked a bit uneasy on him and when McCoy kicked the race was all over bar the shouting.

So either Jezki is the best thing since sliced bread or Hurricane Fly was not at his best.

Personally I think despite Hurricane Fly being a bit of a living legend and definitely in the top ten of all time hurdlers we have gone through an era that is far from being great.

Perhaps they never lasted as long as Hurricane Fly has but Persian War Bula Comedy of Errors Sea Pigeon Night Nurse Mansfield Istabraq...or should I say the mighty Istabraq at their best were far better hurdlers.

I honestly think Faugheen will change that as he simply looks different gravy.and not only am I insane enough to dismiss his chances but bold enough to place lay him on the day if he doesn't beat Hurricane Fly in the ICH
 
Re where HF lies in the pantheon of greats, his high-water-mark in terms of seasonal performance, has generally come at Punchestown, rather than Cheltenham.

Whilst I would agree that his Champion Hurdles have not been ratings-busters (his best would be several lbs short of Istrabraq's, for example), other performances have been better, and need to be taken into account, when assessing just how good he was at his best. Just looking at his Champion Hurdle outings, is too narrow a view.
 
Tbh, Grass, I think The Fly has always been a speed horse and (although he's won over further) his forte has regularly been accelerating better than his contemporaries. The CH, being the test it is the closing stages, mitigates slightly against that gear change. He's certainly never had a problem on other undulating courses.
While there was more pace than usual on his latest excursion (which enabled Jezki to shake him up more), the whole field was still together approaching the 2nd last, and that pace scenario is so unlikely to repeat at the Festival that Fist's whole notion of a return to former glories looks pure pie in the sky.
 
Tanlic said:
When you consider Jezki has won as may times on soft ground as he has on ground closer to good and Arctic Fire needs good ground to be seen at his best then stuff where Plinth finished.
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Sorry mate but which "Good ground" best are you referring to for Arctic Fire?

His defeat off 141 in the County?, or the 7L mauling, when conceding 7lb that he handed out to the mighty 130+ rated Gassin Golf (0-13 over hurdles) ?


He may well be seen to best effect on good ground and he may indeed have improved as much as his Ryanair run would have many believe but I will be amazed if he reverses the form with Jezki at Cheltenham because for me, that best is nowhere near good enough.
 
reet hard said:
Love your style, Fist; I'm suggesting Jezki's gonna do exactly what he did last year, your proposing Arctic Fire might find the stone or so he needs to beat him - and I'm the wishful thinker. :lol:
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No Reet that is not what I am saying. What I am saying is Jezki will beat himself by trying to take on Faugheen coming down the hill and be legless by the time he's halfway up the hill and not so quick but strong finishers in The New One and Arctic Fire and the ones most likely to pick up the pieces.

Racing isn't as simple as this horse is rated this and will beat this one because he's rated much lower.......How the race is run has to come into it.

You could have said the same thing about Binocular when he went off at 4/1 and he finished 4th to Rock on Ruby who IMO is no Faughen but manged to take both Hurricane Fly and Binocular off their feet
 
Grasshopper said:
Re where HF lies in the pantheon of greats, his high-water-mark in terms of seasonal performance, has generally come at Punchestown, rather than Cheltenham.

Whilst I would agree that his Champion Hurdles have not been ratings-busters (his best would be several lbs short of Istrabraq's, for example), other performances have been better, and need to be taken into account, when assessing just how good he was at his best. Just looking at his Champion Hurdle outings, is too narrow a view.
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Not sure I agree with this, Gh. It's a bit like saying a horse that racks up a string of impressive wins at 7f deserves to be compare with the truly great milers. Thes Irish G1's he's been mopping up are mostly G1s in name only. Istabraq did the same but with far more authority and backed it up at Cheltenham.

I wouldn't be sure about HF being in the top 10 all-time hurdlers in terms of best ever performances regardless of where they took place.

It's a bit like saying Best Mate was one of the 10 all-time best staying chasers. :whistle:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Not sure I agree with this, Gh. It's a bit like saying a horse that racks up a string of impressive wins at 7f deserves to be compare with the truly great milers. Thes Irish G1's he's been mopping up are mostly G1s in name only.
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I find it hard to blame the horse for not having to prove his worth against Purple Bay, Irving, Blue Heron and Aurore d'Estruval. What have Jezki, Rock on Ruby, Solwhit or Our Conor ever done??
 
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Has there been a grade 1 2m hurdle outside of the Champion Hurdle worth its status in the last ten years?
 
I agree with you Do but only to a certain extent. I could mention more than a few Champion Hurdlers who would not have won those in name only Group 1's because they simply weren't constantly fit

But when you look at what Persian War did......sorta puts it in perspective he won the Victor Ludorum Hurdle, the Triumph Hurdle. The Challow Hurdle the Schweppes Gold Trophy with 11st13lbs on his back, Lonsdale Handicap Hurdle,Welsh Champion Hurdle,The Irish Sweeps Hurdle and 3 Champion Hurdles and he had the greediest owner in the world who insisted he ran in every race worth more than a tenners.

The worst race of his career was when he was beaten into 7th place by guess who?.......Tanlic :lol:

You can't blame WM or the Fly if some of the races were shyte the big yard in England do the same only this time they got Faugheen to contend with and what do they do......they all run for the hills.
 
HawkWing said:
Has there been a grade 1 2m hurdle outside of the Champion Hurdle worth its status in the last ten years?
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How about Punchestown 2011 where HF hammered the previous season's Champion Hurdler out-of-sight? Or the 2013 edition where HF beat that season's Champion Champion Hurdler out-of-sight?

Poorly-contested my sister's hole.
 
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In a word Yes, there have been plenty.
For consistency alone any one of the top ten hurdlers would have to performed to within 7lbs of their best to beat HF on any of his wins.
How many of them would have done that on 20 occasions ?
Not all ten I guarantee you.
 
HawkWing said:
Grade 1 in name only.
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Now that I've had the rather obvious pointed out to me, the "Irish G1's are soft" line has been a constant irritant over the duration of HF's career.

Firstly it was Solwhit that held the form down - until after about his 6th Grade 1 win, when some reluctantly accepted he was top-class. Then it was Thousand Stars who held the form down, ignoring his mutliple placed runs in G1 company at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown each year (and ignoring his G1 in France).

The list of G1-winning hurdlers who have had a mauling at the hands of Hurricane Fly sjnce his novice days is endless.

Grivette, Quevega, Go Native, Binocular, Rock On Ruby, Jezki, Our Conor, Peddlers Cross, Zarkandar, Unaccompanied and others can be added to the three named-above - all of them outclassed at one point or another, by Hurricane Fly.

If you're prepared to write all of them off, then you might as well throw the last six years of form-books in the bin.
 
If there's one thing I have learned about Hurricane Fly is for every negative you have Grassy will give you 3 positives.........do try and look back on the Grade 1's he has won before sputing how bad they were. Compared to what The New One has won this season they were Rolls Royce affairs.

His last 4 he's beat the Champion Hurdle Twice. A very serious horse in Our Conor Twice and Jezki in his first year in the seniors twice.

In the meantime The New One beat Rock on Ruby, 2 cart horses and Vanituex

I'd say Hurricane Fly has had more to beat Than Faugheen or The New One and by some way.

No one is saying he's the greatest of all time (Except WM) who took a bit of a roasting for that but the races he has won only look poor because he keeps winning them and people get a bit contemptuous and think after he's won "Geez not another Hurricane Fly walk in the park"
 
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