Champion Hurdle 2015

Yes, the bastards are trying simultaneously to log onto this site to see what your findings are. We don't stand a chance.


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tiggers1972 said:
Problem is EC us up at the course we won't have the benefit of your findings. Getting any data to get online up there is a nightmare.
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well you could go on official overall time for the supreme..they give the time over the blower at the course..i'm still not a fan of the overall times particularly now they are quicker than the old method. The new method of timing has trashed the past data using full race times unfortunately.

the times i am using this year are purely first hurdle+ times..but to make them the same as the official times I'll add about 7 sec to the first hurdle times..that is a pretty accurate estimate of tape up to first hurdle

just make a note of these for the Supreme ..these are what the official times they use now should be for these goings

Faster than 3m46.5 = Good/Firm
3m46.5 to 3m47.5 = Good [G/F places]
3m47.5 to 3m52. = Good
3m52 to 3m53.5 = Good [G/S places]
3m53.5 to 3m58.5 = Good/Soft
3m58.5 to 3m68 = Soft
 
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WILLIE MULLINS believes Hurricane Fly still has what it takes to win the Stan James Champion Hurdle and rates the two-time winner as the "each-way bet of the week".

Last season ended on a disappointing note for the 11-year-old Hurricane Fly when he was beaten at both the Cheltenham and Punchestown festivals by Jezki.

However, he has left that form well behind this season, getting the better of his old rival Jezki on three occasions, bringing his tally of Grade 1 victories to a record-breaking 22.

Despite remaining unbeaten for the season, Hurricane Fly can still be backed at 8-1 with stablemate Faugheen favourite for the race at 5-4, just ahead of The New One at 3-1.

Speaking in this week's Racing & Football Outlook, Mullins said: "He's been wonderful and it's always bewildered me he hasn't got the recognition he deserves. He was beaten at Cheltenham and Punchestown last season, and there were plenty suggesting he should be retired, but I always said he'd tell me when he had had enough.

"I've been much happier with him this season. The bookies don't rate his chances in the Champion Hurdle, but I think he can win it again - he must be the each-way bet of the week.

"He loves some cut in the ground and if the word ‘soft' is in the going description, I'll be happy."
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:ninja:
 
how can you put a price on it Slim without the knowing the going?..its absolutely key to what the horse shows

are you assuming Good ground?
 
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I'm assuming nothing. I'm purely using Betfair prices.

He's 11.0 to win the race and 2.92 to place. Therefore he is 3/1 to finish 2nd or 3rd so 9.09% to win the race and 5.26% to finish second to Faugheen. That 18/1 (2nd to Faugheen) and 10/1 (win the race) gives you 6/1 on him W/O Faugheen. I'd want 13/2 before placing this bet but would lay all the 5/1 I could because it's a **** bet.
 
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I understand the logic.....I just choose to ignore it where Hurricane Fly is concerned.

Part of your Jedi training will be the evolution of your soul. I refuse to leave you scrabbling for coppers in the sewer all your days.
 
Grasshopper said:
I understand the logic.....I just choose to ignore it where Hurricane Fly is concerned.

Part of your Jedi training will be the evolution of your soul. I refuse to leave you scrabbling for coppers in the sewer all your days.
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Soul?


Picking winners is all well and good but you have to take the right price or at the very least least be aware of the implied correct price from the exchanges etc.

Right now (as EC1 mentions) without knowing some important variables I'd want these prices w/o

9/4 TNO
7/2 Jezki
13/2 HF
 
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There will be one in there somewhere, Slim - we just need to find it, and nurture it.

There's just too much effort in doing the sums for a score, throwaway bet on The Fly. Besides, I expect you to keep me squared-away on the maths front - why do you think I've taken you on as my Padawan??
 
Grasshopper said:
There will be one in there somewhere, Slim - we just need to find it, and nurture it.

There's just too much effort in doing the sums for a score, throwaway bet on The Fly. Besides, I expect you to keep me squared-away on the maths front - why do you think I've taken you on as my Padawan??
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Because no one else really bothers interacting with you.

I'm at the stage now where I'm really bored with the Cheltenham phoney war. This time next week we can really start talking about what's a bet and what's not.
 
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I am of course grateful for your sacrifice.

Tend to agree re phoney war. Half the jollies are going to be a bigger price on the day, than they are right now.
 
EC1 said:
well you could go on official overall time for the supreme..they give the time over the blower at the course..i'm still not a fan of the overall times particularly now they are quicker than the old method. The new method of timing has trashed the past data using full race times unfortunately.

the times i am using this year are purely first hurdle+ times..but to make them the same as the official times I'll add about 7 sec to the first hurdle times..that is a pretty accurate estimate of tape up to first hurdle

just make a note of these for the Supreme ..these are what the official times they use now should be for these goings

Faster than 3m46.5 = Good/Firm
3m46.5 to 3m47.5 = Good [G/F places]
3m47.5 to 3m52. = Good
3m52 to 3m53.5 = Good [G/S places]
3m53.5 to 3m58.5 = Good/Soft
3m58.5 to 3m68 = Soft
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Does this assume the CH will be slightly faster? I was thinking of backing HF if the supreme was over 3.50 but might rethink based on your numbers. Or i might just ignore the numbers, back him and hope i can scream him home :lol:
 
You will incurr the wrath of Slim Chance if you adopt such an approach, Mexico.

There is still something of the Dark Side about him, and I have much work to do.
 
The dark side have got a few good tricks but i cant see how any of them will tell me faugheens true value so there will be some jedi guessing from me whatever happens
 
I'd expect ground close to last year given the forecast. Those times make a very strong case for Jezki by the way.

Any idea which was the last horse to better Jezki's time?
 
I was a backer of Jezki each way last year when he drifted to 9/1 Maruco, but then we had a favourite that was suspect getting home (who ran a cracker to be fair) this year Jezki is near half the price and the favourite has the vibes of being a machine even if he is too short, also not having Geraghty on board is a negative for me no matter how irrational that will seem to many, then I would want BG on every horse i bet as I think he is the best around...

That said unless I was lumping on Faugheen which I wont it only really leaves Jezki as a safe bet, struggling to find any real value in this race.
 
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Maruco said:
I'd expect ground close to last year given the forecast. Those times make a very strong case for Jezki by the way.

Any idea which was the last horse to better Jezki's time?
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The beauty of timing from the first hurdle is that i can still see which are the true times from the past..if you now compare the overall timing method with last years it looks very fast..but in reality its not as extreme as the overall times suggest. Using the old overall times you might have to knock 2..3..or even 4 seconds off them to be comparable with last years time. In fact even comparing the old overall times with each other still has the start error built in.

Last year ..looking at the 1st Hurdle+ times ..Vautour + Jezki both recorded times faster than any other CH or Supreme i've timed...Vautour was faster by 3 seconds than any other Supreme. Some of that will of course be that he is above average winner..rather than the ground being so much faster...sometimes if you get a very clear winner its not a bad idea..if trying to judge the going from the time .. to use the the winning distance halved to get a more average winner type time...or even use the 2nd horse as the average winner...last year it would have been fair to use the second horse as an average winner.

What will happen after the first race is that C4 or RUK will say..oh the time is such and such..possibly a fast time..like last year...because they will be comparing the new method with the old..last year for instance on Betfair forum they were thinking the ground was rock hard because they heard the overall time..compared it to previous times and it mislead them into thinking the ground was extremely quick.
 
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