Champion Hurdle 2015

Tanlic said:
and guess what Bear he'll ride Hurricane Fly if Faugheen fails to impress:) Don't need Grassy or anyone else to tell us that.

As for you Mr Fuckwit my favourite poster:lol:



"If Ruby rides the fav then it must point to him being a 175 horse minimum to get him off of HF."

Must have been a clerical error on your part EC

I think what you meant to say is if Faugheen is a 175 rated horse Ruby will ride him

or maybe you meant if Faugheen is chosen by Ruby he's a 175 rate horse

or was it Ruby doesn't know what he's talking about but I know he'll chose him because Faugheen is a 175 horse

Fucked if I know why you even mentioned a rating if you didn't think it would influence the mans decision

Yer a funny fells and even you don't know what you are talking about........dam keyboard must have a mind of it's own......wish I had one like that :lol:

I'm just waiting for the headline "Ruby considers riding Arctic Fire" LOL Gotta love the media.latest saying everytime he sits on a horse "The Retiring Tony McCoy"
which is even less interesting after hearing it 50 times than "Ruby has a hard decision to make"
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You need to start reading things a bit more carefully I feel, the above post makes you look very simple. You seem to want to twist my words so that you can then take the m1ck out of what you say I have written..the only problem there is that you are taking the m1ck out of yourself as it makes it look like you can't read properly.

Its very boring..and i would also suggest that you are probably stopping potential posters from taking part fearing they have to put up with the complete nonsense you spout... and the invention you put on what other people actually write... just so you can try and make yourself look a smart alec.

Its getting very tiresome Tanlic.
 
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I wasn't serious or trying to be abusive when I wrote that I just thought it comical you couldn't remember what you said a page or two back. Anyone else would have laughed it off but not you Mr High and Mighty.

You take it the worst possible way and want to start a war over nothing by throwing abuse at me by saying I am spouting rubbish and other posters don't want to converse with me ? Yet again you attempt to drag other people into your web by telling them what to think in your own childish sneaky way...............absolutely anyone who disagrees with you or tries to defend themselves on here gets the same shyte thrown at them from you........pure ignorant abuse.

Nothing more to say because you went through the same shyte with other posters a few weeks back..

Take a long look in the mirror sunshine. But on second thoughts don't!!! you probably wont like what you see and end up throwing abuse at the mirror for being on your wall.
 
FFS, not again. EC's point wasn't that Ruby would take ratings into account when choosing, rather that we may be able to infer something about the horses' abilities from his choice - namely that he's need to be sure F was 5lbs clear to feel comfortable deserting HF.

It's not that complicated if you can read.
 
Tanlic said:
I wasn't serious or trying to be abusive when I wrote that I just thought it comical you couldn't remember what you said a page or two back. Anyone else would have laughed it off but not you Mr High and Mighty.

You take it the worst possible way and want to start a war over nothing by throwing abuse at me by saying I am spouting rubbish and other posters don't want to converse with me ? Yet again you attempt to drag other people into your web by telling them what to think in your own childish sneaky way...............absolutely anyone who disagrees with you or tries to defend themselves on here gets the same shyte thrown at them from you........pure ignorant abuse.

Nothing more to say because you went through the same shyte with other posters a few weeks back..

Take a long look in the mirror sunshine. But on second thoughts don't!!! you probably wont like what you see and end up throwing abuse at the mirror for being on your wall.
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no..thats total rubbish..i haven't forgot anything i said..you've tried to invent a scenario to use it in an attempt to belittle..either that or you aren't very bright if you can't grasp whats written in simple terms

yes i can laugh at something if its funny..but when someone constantly plays the games that you do with me then i'm tired of it

i haven't started a war with you..i've told you to pack in with twisting my words to to try and make yourself look smart..anyone else would do the same

i haven't told you what to think...what do i care what you think?

no i don't think what you do with twisting words does encourage anyone to post...they look at the way you go on..like with the SS stuff..where again you didn't read what i originally posted..put your own slant on it.. so you could dish out ridicule..for days on end.

i haven't abused you here..you've been told i'm fed up with the twisting/ridicule...not one person on here would do any different in my position

A number of people won't post interesting stuff on here because of people like you..because they don't want the ridicule and backlash. Anything you aren't interested in or don't understand you just ridicule it...that doesn't encourage anyone to post

Others can make their own mind up about what you think you are achieving with such as your last few postings on this thread

All i know is i have posted something i thought was interesting..then get utter rubbish from you deriding it...and if left unchecked you'd be on about it for days.

tedious
 
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Tanlic said:
and guess what Bear he'll ride Hurricane Fly if Faugheen fails to impress:) Don't need Grassy or anyone else to tell us that.

"
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You're missing the subtle difference. He's already decided on Faugheen in his mind. If both horses work as well as can be expected at home it will be Faugheen that he chooses. The only way he'll choose HF is if something goes amiss with Faugheen.
 
EC1 said:
no..thats total rubbish..i haven't forgot anything i said..you've tried to invent a scenario to use it in an attempt to belittle..either that or you aren't very bright if you can't grasp whats written in simple terms

yes i can laugh at something if its funny..but when someone constantly plays the games that you do with me then i'm tired of it

i haven't started a war with you..i've told you to pack in with twisting my words to to try and make yourself look smart..anyone else would do the same

i haven't told you what to think...what do i care what you think?

no i don't think what you do with twisting words does encourage anyone to post...they look at the way you go on..like with the SS stuff..where again you didn't read what i originally posted..put your own slant on it.. so you could dish out ridicule..for days on end.

i haven't abused you here..you've been told i'm fed up with the twisting/ridicule...not one person on here would do any different in my position

A number of people won't post interesting stuff on here because of people like you..because they don't want the ridicule and backlash. Anything you aren't interested in or don't understand you just ridicule it...that doesn't encourage anyone to post

Others can make their own mind up about what you think you are achieving with such as your last few postings on this thread

All i know is i have posted something i thought was interesting..then get utter rubbish from you deriding it...and if left unchecked you'd be on about it for days.

tedious
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Nobody is ridiculing you.....

"posters from taking part fearing they have to put up with the complete nonsense you spout" I would say that is being abusive and offensive....You could have taken what I said the way it was meant but you chose to take it in the worst possible way. Where did I offend you so badly you have to turn into a Mr Hyde.

I'm sorry but I can't handle people like you....you have no sense of humour and can't take a bit of crack without losing the plot.
 
RW will have more info than handicappers and odds compilers but no harm using it to quantify what you think his thought process would be.

Part of me thinks that he would want the comfort of a few lbs in hand to get off hurricane and part of me doesnt.
If he cannot split them, then youd want to try for the 3 time 11yo winner all day long imo. I think Richie would understand that.

But if he thinks faugheen is even 1 pound better off in the race then he might just back his judgement and live with Townend possibly winning on HF. PT deserves to be part of it all anyway and the horse would still be a hero. And RW can sleep knowing he made a proper decision. Still, couldnt blame RW if he makes HF 5lbs inferior and goes for glory on him anyway.
 
As the betting suggests, Walsh picking Faugheen is the biggest cert of the Festival.

The Fly has, to all intents, had two inexplicably poor outings at Cheltenham, and two wins in the CH where he's run below what he's capable of. He is also now an 11yo, who has had to dig deeper than ever before to win his prep races - races that he routinely used to win with his head in his chest. Contrast that with Faugheen, who - regardless of the true value of the form - has won his preps in common canters, has track form, and has age and progression on his side.

Walsh won't hesitate to pick Faugheen if he is in good order, and if he chooses the wrong one, then at least the pill of seeing Paul Townend win on the Fly, will be less bitter than if it was anyone else.

There is very little in the way of downside in relinquishing the ride on Hurricane Fly, and it's (pretty-much) all upside if he chooses Faugheen. I will be absolutely amazed if he ultimately rejects the young pretender in favour of the ageing warrior.
 
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Champion hurdle thread right here :D
Who is the likely frontrunner here then?
The only chance I can see for TNO is if they were able to make it a test for him a'la Rock on Ruby and Overturn.
 
The New One matched at 11 and 22 (for tiny money) before settling back down - BOT gone rogue or more than that?
 
Hurricane Fly's was given an RPR of 170 for beating Jezki in the Morgiana but only 157 for winning the Christmas hurdle at Leopardstown. Presumably they did this because of Arctic Fire finishing close behind and being considered to hold the form down. But the Fly is put back up to 170 for his win in the Irish Champion Hurdle, and Arctic Fire's rating goes up 10 lbs even though the result of the two races were very similar.

Either the Christmas rating of 157 is way out of line or the Morgiana and Ir Champion Hurdle ratings are too generous. Which do we reckon?
 
Not sure, but the time of the Xmas hurdle was very good. I can't crab that form personally.
The 157 looks low. Way too low!
 
basing ratings on improving horses is dodgy..its quite reasonable to think AF has improved..we don't bat an eyelid when a horse wins and we see his mark increase..but when a horse is improving in races he can't win..the improvement is still there..but not as obvious if he won two races and went up say 15lb
 
Perfect example of my oft-voiced opinion that the compilers of RPRs are fu*ckwits.

Next question please.
 
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Firstly
the xmas hurdle ..using Tiger roll would make HF a 169
using Plinth + King of picts would make HF 157

so as two of them make it 157 that would probably be % call..possibly a bit higher if we throw in TR..i can't see why its not a 160 mesen

Irish Champion
using tiger roll makes HF ..a 169
using Plinth makes HF..170

so 170 makes sense

so Arctic Fire started season on 147..then improved to something like 153 behind Irving ..then 158 in the xmas race ...then 166 in the Irish Champion

so has improved 20lb since start of season imo
 
Haven't gone through the thread in great detail, so may have already been raised, but I as an antepost backer of Faugheen at prices would be concerned about him having to travel and jump as a fast pace around here, at such an early stage in his career, ala Our Conor last year. I backed the horse purely because I thought the price would contract, I will most likely lay my stake on the day and back one against it and have green for both.
 
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