Champion Hurdle 2015

Grasshopper said:
Can I ask what it is you dislike so much about Hurricane Fly, Tiggers?

You show him absolutely no respect whatsoever.
Click to expand...

It's nothing personal I'm just looking at the facts, faster pace and quicker ground don't suit him do they? If he wins and raises the roof I'll be the first to doff my cap.
 
EC has pretty much proven that its all down to ground with the Fly. He needs a bit of juice to slow the overall time down so he doesn't get caught for absolute pace. Last years race on quick ground found him out. If we get any rain and it looks like being good to soft i'm going to back the Fly e/w. If I can get 9/1 under those ground conditions i'd be delighted.
 
Grasshopper said:
I didn't say he would win, Frankel, but Tiggers seems to positively enjoy the fact that he probably won't win.
Click to expand...

Sorry, where did you read that??
I said they would go too fast for Hurricane Fly, that's for sure?

Surely if I'd have been enjoying the fact I'd have added a Keeganesque I'd love it if he got beat?
 
Watch last year's race again. Hurricane Fly was bang there on the run to the last, before folding in uncharacteristically tame fashion up the run in. Maybe he used up too much energy getting into the race, but he was back with the leader half-way down the hill going to two out.

Was he really found out by the pace? I dunno. TNO was definitely found out by the pace, because he never ever got there, but HF did, and he got there a good 3f before the finish. Maybe, just maybe, there was another reason for him not seeing out his race.

I am not suggesting Hurricane Fky will win the Champion Hurdle. I'm just wondering if the "He can't go the pace on quick ground" theory is 100% the reason for defeat last year.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Sorry, where did you read that??
I said they would go too fast for Hurricane Fly, that's for sure?

Surely if I'd have been enjoying the fact I'd have added a Keeganesque I'd love it if he got beat?
Click to expand...

Just a few comments aimed at me after last year's race and since. I genuinely thought you had a dislike of the horse for some reason.

Apologies if I was wrong.
 
The last win, he was under the pump way before Jezki was, more of a tow from Plinth would have accentuated it even more.
Even when he won the year before he was getting pushed along down the back, similar place to where Our Connor fell last year. (some clowns on here said that Ruby was changing his hands).
Like I say if he wins the roof will come off of the place on Tuesday and I'll be the first to doff my cap.
 
Last edited:
I think the Fly could surprise a few on here and think he's a great e/way bet and the fact there is now a shitty rain front being forecast to sit above Cheltenham on Monday and Tuesday morning ,along with the small field could play right into his hands.
 
I hope there's plenty of sentimental bets on HF over the coming week. Might push Faugheen's price out a little!
 
Grasshopper said:
Just a few comments aimed at me after last year's race and since. I genuinely thought you had a dislike of the horse for some reason.

Apologies if I was wrong.
Click to expand...

The comments were ala the fishwife debate! I'm pretty sure I said i hoped he'd win for you at Leopardstown when you were doing the brekkie thing?
 
Jezki 6/1 e/w backers have got around 10% edge on their place bet and just over 1% on the win bet. Nothing clever but it was so obvious from so far out that this race would cut up terribly.
 
Last edited:
frontrunner said:
I think the Fly could surprise a few on here and think he's a great e/way bet and the fact there is now a shitty rain front being forecast to sit above Cheltenham on Monday and Tuesday morning ,along with the small field could play right into his hands.
Click to expand...

No forecast can predict the weather at a certain time of day 6 days in advance. They can have a rough guess but it'll change half a dozen times between now and Tuesday.
 
Grasshopper said:
Watch last year's race again. Hurricane Fly was bang there on the run to the last, before folding in uncharacteristically tame fashion up the run in. Maybe he used up too much energy getting into the race, but he was back with the leader half-way down the hill going to two out.

Was he really found out by the pace? I dunno. TNO was definitely found out by the pace, because he never ever got there, but HF did, and he got there a good 3f before the finish. Maybe, just maybe, there was another reason for him not seeing out his race.

I am not suggesting Hurricane Fky will win the Champion Hurdle. I'm just wondering if the "He can't go the pace on quick ground" theory is 100% the reason for defeat last year.
Click to expand...

Pretty much answered it yourself. Sustained pace on better ground will likely find him out.
 
In both Champions he's lost, the fly has been beaten by a horse running to a TS figure of 160+

Perhaps its a combination of quicker ground and the overall time... But then Grassy is right that he travelled very well last year then emptied at the end... Very uncharacteristic. Either way, he's still a good e/w bet if he lines up on genuine good to soft. And EC will confirm that for us :)
 
I think they thought Our Conor was their main danger.

They pretty well knew that he was going to be up there and at some point try and slip them, so they were going to track him as closely as possible.

When he came down everything changed and Hurricane Fly found himself right up there with CCB.

Perhaps seeing daylight way too soon had him racing inside expended more energy than normal and he simply burned himself out.

The other possibility is he simply wasn't in the best of form. The way Jezki absolutely destroyed him back in Ireland was too bad to be true.

Certainly this season it's been a totally different story and yes you can blame the ground and you can say Jezki is more suited by the ground
but for me there was more to it than that.

It's a bit weird that last year he went off the outsider of the 5 main contenders last year and no one was shouting he would win on better ground from the rooftops

That's all changed and now it's mentioned every time his name comes up because he won that Champion Hurdle.

For me he won nothing more than what turned out to be a match because Our Conor fell hampered TNO and the Fly for some reason never ran to his best.

The fact he only beat MTOY by a neck who had pulled like a train for the entire race and he was pulling him back up the hill only strengthens my belief he won what turned out to be a bit of a farce.

I am far from alone thinking this and if I am wrong why isn't he sharing favouritism with Faugheen and ahead of TNO in the market.

I'll be amazed if he finishes better than 3rd and the way the race is likely to be run he has more chance of being unplaced that he has of winning.

I think there will be a match bet available on the day between Hurricane Fly and Jezki and if there is I'll be in The Fly's camp to beat him yet again.
 
Back
Top