Champion Hurdle 2015

Not a case of The Fly not running to his best Tanlic. The times of his Champion Hurdle runs tell the story.
 
Last years CH was described as being strongly run early by the commentator ..but the reality was they just looked to be going fast due to the ground being quicker..the early pace on the faster ground was slower than even pace early..all the real pace was late.

Compare it to the best even paced race..probably the most perfect CH ever ridden for even pace by a jock was Hardy Eustace in 2004

lbs faster than even pace are minus figures

....................................H3 H5 H6 H7 Fin


HARDY EUSTACE ...........1... 0 ..0 ..1.. -3
JEZKI............................6... 0 ..4 ..-6. -4

When HF won the CH on both occasions they were with different early pace scenarios,,but both wins did have something in common..there was at some point before 2 out a sustained period of above even pace which sucked the energy out of the oppo

....................................H3 H5 H6 H7 Fin
2011 Hurricane Fly.........7... 0..-6 ​..-1 ...0
2013 Hurricane Fly........-8.. -8 ..1 ..-2.. 18

HF looks to need early or middle pressure above even pace to really get going..we have seen him come under pressure a few times some way from home..it could be due to a quick pace change that throws him. He seems to prefer a more grinding effort rather than like last years race where the oppo had juice left from two out.

Last years race was actually what the perception about HF should have suited..slower then sprint..he isn't that type of horse imo

To me i think he will benefit from a strong pace early or mid pace..he didn't get that last year..all the real pace then was at the end of the race. Obviously the ground was an issue to.

What do we think the pace is likely to be this year?

Jezki won't want a real test..he wants it like last year where he wears them down from 3 out after conserving petrol early
 
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frontrunner said:
I think the Fly could surprise a few on here and think he's a great e/way bet and the fact there is now a shitty rain front being forecast to sit above Cheltenham on Monday and Tuesday morning ,along with the small field could play right into his hands.
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WHAT! Dont tell me i'm going to have to bring jumpers again!
 
i assume Kitten Rock is there as JP's pace horse..if that is the case then he won't want to make it a real test for Jezki..he will want it even or less than even to suit Jezki...and it won't really suit any other horse bar jezki if that is the case..good plan i would think

will they use KR as the lead horse?

there is nothing else in there that would want to lead...unless Ruby leads on Faugheen...i could see Fehily setting it early on and Ruby thinking..no its not fast enough... and taking the lead off him well before the end of the race to make it enough of a test for Faugheen

if they leave Fehily in front off a softish pace too long then jezki could take all of them again late..out pace all of them

the pace scenario is very interesting..and will play a large part in what wins this..and JP could hold the aces unless Ruby takes up the mantle on the far side

a fascinating race this is going to be
 
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Very interesting, EC1.

The Fly is a different horse these days, from what he used to be.....which is in line with what you would expect, given his advancing years. He no longer has that killer turn-of-foot which buried other horses in a matter of strides, and is now probably more dependent on the stamina he used to display early in his career (2m4f runs in France, Hattons Grace) plus his sheer guts and determination. He is probably also now more dependent on ground slowing-up the animals around him, because age has blunted his overall speed.

If your numbers are right, Hurricane Fly might benefit from Kitten Rock's pacemaker role.......though quick ground would still likely blunt his chances.

Always a fascinating race......but it will be bitter-sweet for me regardless. Every chance this is the last time we'll see Hurricane Fly in a race - a thought that makes me quite sad. :(
 
ECI
Your data and your interpretation of it has really had a major impact on the way I look at a race. No stats but I have a strong feeling that my pocket has also benefitted. Thanks for that!
I'm a Jezki man through and through and the scenario of Jezki having plenty of juice entering the final stages appeals. I've backed him to win less than I did last year since imo the 'unleash hell' style of AP which can be so effective in a finish is not suited to Jezki. I think BG's ride last year was awesome. Can AP replicate it if your scenario unfolds, well he is the most successful jump jockey ever, he isn't stupid, but Jezki isn't Wichita Lineman. We'll see.
 
The thing is though..Kitten isn't going make it a strong pace Grass..thats the worst case scenario for JP's main hope isn't it?..every horse in the race bar his own horse needs the petrol emptying before they come into play. If Fehily goes faster than par then he sets it up for any horse bar the one he is really trying to help

To be fair..there is only Ruby going to change JP's race plan..i don't see any other horse going near Kitten early doors..they are all horses that jocks will hold on to..and will be quite happy with Kitten leading..i think JP has the AOB pace plan for the race..the exact opposite of what a pace maker should do

if they hit 3 out like last year without expending a lot then Jezki will just set sail for home and totally out pace them.

Ruby's tactics will be so key in this race..if he sits off a slighlty less than even pace for too long..i cannot see it playing to Faugheen's strengths..same as the rest of them.

we know how pace savvy Ruby is..i'm pretty sure he will take it up to try and scupper the JP plan
 
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EC1, you know that KR wants to go steady to benefit Jezki........but do they know? :lol:

And if Ruby lays it on thick.......will he think it's for or against HF? He will have to be pretty cute regardless........or be on the best horse in the race by a good stretch.
 
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i think JP knows full well that his chance to win with Jezki is the same tactic as last year...then again if he hadn't run KR..it would be a pace that suited Jezki anyway..maybe he just wants to guarantee it.

its a good tactic though because other jockeys are just happy to get something leading..saves them having to be the one that does it..also if he leaves it to someone else they might think..i'm going to go for it and stretch them..by having KR there running even pace they will be happy..then try and steady it on the far side when they climb up and down to 3 out..then let jezki take over coming down the hill..deja vu time

i can't see Ruby allowing it tbh
 
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I think it's an imperative that Faugheen will either force the pace or make it, and the stronger the pace the more it will suit Jezki. Such a scenario would also suit TNO, but I doubt he's good enough
 
Grasshopper said:
Faugheen as pacemaker for Hurricane Fly....I like it.

:lol:
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or vice versa:)

its a stamina [mullins] v speed [JP] race

the fact that Mullins hasn't got a horse entered to make the pace you would assume that Faugheen will make it...if he doesn't or take it up far side then JP wins
 
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reet hard said:
Such a scenario would also suit TNO, but I doubt he's good enough
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He made up a hell of a lot of ground before-(and-after) the last hurdle last season...looked like he would just manage to finish fifth before the turn for home.

I suppose being hampered as bad as he was last year is like if one of us was running a 10,000, metre race at the Olympics and when you've every chance after 9,000 metre's you lose lengths because something unfortunate happens and you get stopped.

Things like that can be tough and take big hearts to overcome. I think The New One did as much as he reasonably could after that unfortunate incident.
Over the course of the last year I don't think people appreciate how well he did to finish as fast as he did.
I'm definitely happy to be In The New One camp.
We'll see a different show to the one at Haydock that's for sure.
 
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marble said:
He made up a hell of a lot of ground before-(and-after) the last hurdle last season...looked like he would just manage to finish fifth before the turn for home.

I suppose being hampered as bad as he was last year is like if one of us was running a 10,000, metre race at the Olympics and when you've every chance after 9,000 metre's you lose lengths because something unfortunate happens and you get stopped.

Things like that can be tough and take big hearts to overcome. I think The New One did as much as he reasonably could after that unfortunate incident.
Over the course of the last year I don't think people appreciate how well he did to finish as fast as he did.
I'm definitely happy to be In The New One camp.
We'll see a different show to the one at Haydock that's for sure.
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In your 10000 example it would have be more like after 3000 metres though..the 3rd hurdle is 85 ish seconds into the race...there is still over 10f of the race left to run

I'd have a look as well more closely at that the 3rd hurdle where OC falls..on the outside of TNO is grumeti just before the fall Grumeti is 0.5 lengths behind TNO..after the fall Grumeti is no more than 2 lengths in front of TNO after TNO gets round OC...he lost 2.5 lengths max.

When they jump 3 out he loses a length...then when they accelerate away from him 2 out..he probably loses another length at that hurdle trying to keep up. His jumping under pressure is not CH class really..on top of not having gears..the infringement is minor in comparison to his hurdling

the infringement is the most over exaggerated item in the last 10 years of horse racing imo...especially when you add up how many lengths he loses at the hurdles..which oddly enough never gets mentioned..one costs him 6 lengths over the course of a race..one costs 2.5L...the one that costs least isn't really going to make a difference come tuesday..other one will though
 
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After being hampered early (more like 10,00 metres into your 10,000 metre races, Marble), TNO made the ground-up to the leaders easily enough, and was not at all rushed to do so. He was only about 3L off Jezki as they were turning down the hill, but was outpaced as they quickened, and was basically the same distance behind at the line, as he was at the top of the hill. He lacks tactical pace, imo, and he isn't helped by his jumping, which - whilst generally being fluent enough - does seem to carry him to the right a touch. I'd also support suggestions that his form this season is not so good as it was last season, going into the Festival, and is hard to fancy.

I'd never actually noticed out before, but Sam TD actually gave the horse a peach of a ride, after he was hampered by the fall of Our Conor. He could quite easily have panicked, but he was very patient, and got him back on the heels of the leaders without seemingly expending too much of TNOs energy.
 
EC1 said:
he lost 2.5 lengths max.
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I wouldn't disagree, that seems a fair approximation. That alone would have put him in a photo with MTOY and Jezki though.

I'd be much more concerned about this seasons form if I was a Jezki backer.
There's a chance he's saved himself all season for this race or that he's just not achieved what he was supposed to and the exceptional win last season was like a pop star with a one-hit-wonder. The New One did win at Haydock, regardless of the style or manner of victory.
 
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Whatever he gains from not being hampered this year he will more than lose again jumping right at every obstacle. It's been a developing issue this season and I'd be surprised if they've fixed it.
 
I have my own doubts about TNO winning a Champion. But he was massively compromised last year, not just a wee bit imo.
This is an elite race. Giving top horses not just a lead but one that has taken you out of your own rythem. It may have looked like he made it up easy enough, but he would still have used energy in doing so. I always thought after that incident that he was given a good ride.
Yes he does appear outpaced at a crucial point, but I would also add that I think Sam was careful not to go for the full shebang to early because of the earlier incident.
 
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adding lengths lost early in a race to the end doesn't mean much though Marble..

they are cheap lengths really aren't they?..when you trying to beat horses at the end they are a bit more expensive lengths..it doesn't always work what you lose early can be added back on or Mr Mole would be odds on for the QMCC after that last run

i doubt the infringement cost any more than a hurdle mistake..and he makes enough of those
 
Frankel said:
But he was massively compromised last year, .
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i'd look very closely at it..you are way over egging it..check out his proximity to grumeti before and after..he loses very little in real terms..unless there is two versions of the race

i've never seen such a small incident get so much airplay..his hurdling..hardly gets a mention ..that costs him more
 
EC1 said:
i'd look very closely at it..you are way over egging it..check out his proximity to grumeti before and after..he loses very little in real terms..unless there is two versions of the race

i've never seen such a small incident get so much airplay..his hurdling..hardly gets a mention ..that costs him more
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His hurdling is clearly not top notch.
It's not just the gap EC. It's the fact he was nearly stopped in his tracks and taken out of his rythem, that is the more the key part for me.
 
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He has so many negatives though Frankel..and now the biggest one of all..8 runners..no real pace..he needed a very strong pace..something that not one horse will give him..if Kitten leads it will be be soft..if Faugheen leads it will be even so he gets home

in such a field a horse that took two days to pass bertimont at Haydock is not going to pass far better horses off a lesser test imo

he is the most disadvantaged horse in the field pace wise

watch when they accelerated at two out last year..he was left flailing..they will arguably quicken even more on Tuesday

if he has instant acceleration then he has kept it well hidden..Tuesday will be like a whirlwind to him
 
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