CHampions Day - Ascot

SteveM said:
You see this is where I can't agree. I know that times don’t tell us everything but Hawk Wing was about a second and a half quicker and won by a good deal further (perhaps against weaker opposition) on what was reported and to the eye appears to be virtually identical going. Who can say which one won easier?
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but using bare times without removing ground speed is a completely pointless way of comparing horses..imo

are you telling me you can judge ground conditions to the nearest 5lb just by eye?
 
sunybay said:
Steve

Hawk Wing maybe in theLockinge

but Zilzal or Zafonic would have been a breakfast for Frankel
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I think it would have been closer than you think. Look at the way Zafonic finished his Guineas. He was pulling a train and pulverised really smart horses like Barathea. I'm not sure he wouldn't have beaten Frankel in that race. He certainly would have if Frankel had tried to do to Zafonic what he did to lesser horses in that race. Zafonic plainly had more in hand at the death.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hU364f-w85s

Zilzal was also very good at Ascot and Goodwood. Frankel would have known he'd been in a race, but I agree would have won.
 
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EC1 said:
but using bare times without removing ground speed is a completely pointless way of comparing horses..imo

are you telling me you can judge ground conditions to the nearest 5lb just by eye?
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I've already said times don't tell us everything, but to my eye Hawk Wing was even more impressive than Frankel in that race.

Let me turn that round... how can you say that Frankel was certainly better in that particular race (on reportedly the same ground) when he ran a slower time and didn't win as far.
 
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what is amazing about Frankel is the way he has been able to perform above 140 so many times.

I have seen some single performances above 140 , all of them making the horse to underperform next time or being injured


Daylami irish champion
Royal Anthem International
Hawk Wing Lockinge
Harbinger King George
Overdose in Italy
Generous in the King George
Arazi Breeders Cup
Celtic Swing in the Racing Post trophy




even Bosra Sham in the Prince Of Wales or Dubai Millenium inthe same race
Deep Impact in Japan not far behind eihter.
Queens Logic in the Chevely Park, the best 2yo fillie I have seen
St Jovite was not the same after the King Goerge
Montmartre in the GP Paris was impressive too


About Frankel
his most brutal performance has been the Guineas and that was part of his underperforming in the St James Palace.


Back to milers
I rate Mark Of Steem in his queii better than Zafonic or Zilzal at their best


about consistency on top level
Miesque and Goldikova would be remarkable too
 
sunybay said:
what is amazing about Frankel is the way he has been able to perform above 140 so many times.
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I absolutely agree with this, which is why I rate Frankel so highly.

But have a look again at what Zafonic did to horses like Kingmambo and Barathea and tell me hand on heart that Frankel would have dismantled him at the same stage of their careers:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hU364f-w85s
 
SteveM said:
I've already said times don't tell us everything, but to my eye Hawk Wing was even more impressive than Frankel in that race.

Let me turn that round... how can you say that Frankel was certainly better in that particular race (on reportedly the same ground) when he ran a slower time and didn't win as far.
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i think you are trying to twist what i'm saying..i never said that Frankel's performance in the Lockinge was better than HW's. I said that Frankel would beat HW even on that run...i never mentioned Frankel's lockinge

Frankel's Lockinge was not a strong early pace..so just on that alone..the time comparison is totally pointless...as is a speed figure comparison ...someone with your knowledge shouldn't be comparing times like that really..and also the fact that the pace was slacker should also tell you that direct times are pointless.

You say the ground was the same..which is a bit like saying the grass was the same colour..it wasn't the same when you calculate the going allowance..the difference between those days is 15lb per mile..it was slower when Frankel ran.

saying that official goings being the same can be used to make a time comparison is not an accurate way of making a conclusion..imo

Timeform rate Frankel at 147..thats not his best either..never been pushed...Hawk Wing at 137..who wasn't really going to run much faster...which one wins when they meet?
 
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SteveM said:
I've already said times don't tell us everything,
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they won't tell you anything with the way you used them in this comparison..i agree..not even worth quoting to be fair.

if you think all these horses are as good as Frankel or even near him..then there isn't much anyone can do to change your mind really..you are making arguments fit what you believe.
 
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I wonder what the contingency plan is if ascot is waterlogged and has to be abandoned - it is already soft and heavy rain is predicted .

Run the three races on the straight course ? And move the other three ?
 
Proper heavy ground would test Frankel's stamina as it's never been tested before, and with nothing to lose and everything to gain, Nathaniel's bound to ensure a stiff examination.
Wouldn't be within a stone of Frankel, over 10f on regular Ascot ground, but I could see this being a whole lot closer than current betting suggests.
 
EC1 said:
we don't know how good Frankel really is as no horse has ever pressed him to full effort since he has learned to settle.

if he is a 147 horse just rated on him cantering away from oppo..then just what would his max effort be?

i think at full effort there isn't a miler from the past that would get near him..including the brigadier
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I think sometimes the true greats make it look easier than it is. They may be giving maximum effort without requiring too much coercion from the saddle. How often do we see good horses canter to the front only to find nothing more when let down?

Brigadier Gerard was hardly ever hit with the whip. I think his King George (the previously uncharted 12f territory in good-to-soft) was his hardest race since I believe he was under par at York and Mercer eventually eased him when he realised he wasn't getting to Roberto. But he was ridden out hands and heels in nearly all his wins. Frankel was stopping once or twice after riding ****-ups by Queally, suggesting there is a limit to him (as there is to every horse).
 
I get the impression you quite rated the brigadier do? Im not sure but educated guess?

Its rubbish to compare hawk wing with frankel. Everyone now knows that camelot is the best aob has trained.
 
Champions Day my arse - look at the fields bar Frankels race - a glorified bumper - a glorified Wokingham and a poor realtion of the Prix deL'opera. Mile race looks weak too with the exception of Excelebration..
 
On The Bridle said:
Champions Day my arse - look at the fields bar Frankels race - a glorified bumper - a glorified Wokingham and a poor realtion of the Prix deL'opera. Mile race looks weak too with the exception of Excelebration..
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So true but to be fair, the Arc card was shocking this year too with the Foret resembling a Yarmouth handicap and the Cadran won by a Sir Mark Prescott plot type. Even the Abbaye was full of types that run in that big Musselburgh sprint bar the winner and Mayson.

Take Frankel away and this flat season has been absolutely dire in terms of quality.
 
clivex said:
I get the impression you quite rated the brigadier do? Im not sure but educated guess?
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Nijinsky captured my imagination (I was 14 and had been determined not to get sucked into the mug's game the way my father and older brothers were) that summer. Then the following year we had Brigadier Gerard and Mill Reef! We even got to see both in their 4yo campaigns although MR's was cut short by injury. The figures these two chalked up bettered even Nijinsky's so I was well and truly hooked.

I've been waiting for a Frankel ever since!
 
Bar the Bull said:
I don't know what forecast you are looking at, but I see it as very unsettled for a few days.
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Is there any chance Frankel won't run if its heavy. 12mm last night and something similar forecasted tonight with showers until Saturday....

Chris Stickels.....what an excellent name
 
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I backed him ante-post last year (believe a few others on here did as well Euro was definitely one) but hE drifted out to a ridiculous price on the day....was a strange feeling watching him win...will he drift again...I love the horse but 4/1 to beat Frankel...mmmm
 
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