Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
That's what he said the going was in Warsaw the other night!! 
CHampions Day - Ascot
- Thread starter On The Bridle
- Start date
I've had a look at some of the other races in details now and my overarching conclusion is that this is a tough card from a punting perspective.
If Haggas has Dancing Rain ready to run, which given his usual modus operandi, you would think she will be, she has to be a bet at 6/1 e/w. That was the price last night anyway. If Great HEavens hadn't run in the Arc i'd back her but that race often leaves it mark.
Sprint is a really difficult puzzle to solve but I think the Cheka, if you ignore his last run, looks a bet at 20/1 e/w. He finished in front of Society Rock the last time the ground has soft. You have to forgive the last run but he's followed up bad runs with good ones in the past so he looks the value.
Stayers race is another puzzle and the safe bet is opinion poll. His only recent defeats on soft have been 2 second places in the Gold Cup, although both horses that beat him line up today. That was over half mile further though and i'm not convinced either F&G or Colour Vision are in the best of form. Ile De Re and Rite of Passage could run well at bigger prices...
QEII is all about Excelebration and can't see the others reversing form. I could see Elusive Kate finishing in front of Cityscape though so might just play the forecast. Unsure on this...
Anyone got any strong fancies for the card cos at the moment my betting is going to be limited!!
If Haggas has Dancing Rain ready to run, which given his usual modus operandi, you would think she will be, she has to be a bet at 6/1 e/w. That was the price last night anyway. If Great HEavens hadn't run in the Arc i'd back her but that race often leaves it mark.
Sprint is a really difficult puzzle to solve but I think the Cheka, if you ignore his last run, looks a bet at 20/1 e/w. He finished in front of Society Rock the last time the ground has soft. You have to forgive the last run but he's followed up bad runs with good ones in the past so he looks the value.
Stayers race is another puzzle and the safe bet is opinion poll. His only recent defeats on soft have been 2 second places in the Gold Cup, although both horses that beat him line up today. That was over half mile further though and i'm not convinced either F&G or Colour Vision are in the best of form. Ile De Re and Rite of Passage could run well at bigger prices...
QEII is all about Excelebration and can't see the others reversing form. I could see Elusive Kate finishing in front of Cityscape though so might just play the forecast. Unsure on this...
Anyone got any strong fancies for the card cos at the moment my betting is going to be limited!!
Colin Phillips
At the Start
It's a beautiful day here!
Bar the Bull
At the Start
They bloody forecast rain.
The tool you use on the website is sh1t. All of their media communications would have been based off the text forecast I gave earlier in the thread.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
I think the course has missed most of the heavy rain that has hit London.
So far.
So far.
Miesque
At the Start
Chris Stickells live on ATR: Ascot now Soft, Heavy in places on the round course. 3mm rain so far today more showers up to midnight.
It looks as though there is a danger that Frankel won't take part.
The rain in London has been persistent for several hours now, hopefully Ascot is missing most of it.
It looks as though there is a danger that Frankel won't take part.
The rain in London has been persistent for several hours now, hopefully Ascot is missing most of it.
Why do you think that? Both Grimthorpe and Cecil have said that if it is worse than soft they will have to seriously look at him not running.
Ascot will be desperate to play down the state of the ground. Looking like it could well be mostly heavy by tomorrow.
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If Frankel won't run if it's heavy can we not do what most CoC's do and call it "good to soft" instead?
...I'm a bit afraid that's what they are already doing. Ascot will be desperate to play down the state of the ground. It's already heavy down the back straight from the mile and a quarter start.
It is expected to be drier tomorrow, but more rain is due tonight.
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http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=1011344
Latest update..... Unless its bottomless I think he'll run judging by Teddy's comments.
Latest update..... Unless its bottomless I think he'll run judging by Teddy's comments.
From ATR:
Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to owner Khalid Abdullah, said: "We will look at it in the morning. It depends what happens. What I have always said is that as long as we are happy the ground is safe for Frankel, that will be our call. We are going to walk it and the intention is to run if we can."
From RP:
"If the ground is soft and safe, we are keen to run. If there is a significant amount of rain then we'll have to look at it," said Grimthorpe.
Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to owner Khalid Abdullah, said: "We will look at it in the morning. It depends what happens. What I have always said is that as long as we are happy the ground is safe for Frankel, that will be our call. We are going to walk it and the intention is to run if we can."
From RP:
"If the ground is soft and safe, we are keen to run. If there is a significant amount of rain then we'll have to look at it," said Grimthorpe.
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the pressure should be quite high for them,
Qipco the sponsors and so many tickets sold
the lack of targets and it would be anticlimax ro retire him in this way
personally I think Cirrus will beat him if the ground is heavybut if he beats the french horse , Frankel is then an unbeatable horse.
I agree they are under a lot of pressure to run him. But there's a lot at stake as well. They won't want to see him beaten and if they consider the ground "unsafe" for him it would probably give them all the excuse they need not to run. It's heavy down the back straight as we speak.
I hope he does take part and I think he'll win. However, I also agree Cirrus should be ready to run the race of his life. Connections reckon they were only getting him ready for tomorrow at Longchamp and he has conditions in his favour.
I hope he does take part and I think he'll win. However, I also agree Cirrus should be ready to run the race of his life. Connections reckon they were only getting him ready for tomorrow at Longchamp and he has conditions in his favour.
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Frankel may not run - connections to walk course in the morning . I hope he runs as I am going to Ascot .
Who knows that may lead to a decision to keep him in training !!!
One thing an Ascot mudbath will rain on is those smug gits at Racing for Change .
Who knows that may lead to a decision to keep him in training !!!
One thing an Ascot mudbath will rain on is those smug gits at Racing for Change .
EC1
On a break
Cirrus has a stone at least to find with Frankel..Frankel has a better action for heavy ground than Cirrus...only one winner for me
i'll go for 6 lengths back to Cirrus in 2nd..with any other another 6 back in 3rd
i'll go for 6 lengths back to Cirrus in 2nd..with any other another 6 back in 3rd
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Personally think if you're going to keep a horse in training it should be to challenge him ie. take on horses he wasn't taking on as a 3yo, he's done that once this year and it was arguably his most impressive performance (Juddmonte International).
Hope if he doesn't run here that they take him for a swansong at the Breeders Cup - afterall he is named after the events greatest ever trainer and it would be brilliant if his fans across the pond could see him race before he retires.
Martin
Hope if he doesn't run here that they take him for a swansong at the Breeders Cup - afterall he is named after the events greatest ever trainer and it would be brilliant if his fans across the pond could see him race before he retires.
Martin
That occurred to me too. It must make it slightly more of an option that he stays in training if he misses tomorrow's race. He's only run at 10 furlongs once and isn't really a miler.
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G-G
Senior Jockey
Any idea as to what time they are walking the course?
" He isn't really a miler ":lol:
Love it . He could quite easily win the July Cup and the King George next year !
A caning of Camelot and Danedream in next year's KG anyone .
If he doesn't run I can see Nathaniel beating Cirrus - Nathaniel is much the underrated horse of the two .
Newmarket is by the way no worse than good to soft !!!
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It wouldn't surprise me either. There's nothing between the pair, Nathaniel also goes well on the soft but it may just tip Cirrus's way as he absolutely relishes heavy, a real specialist in these conditions.