Cheltenham 2015

The New One- Champion Hdle
Sire Des Gruges- QM Chase
Annie Power- Arkle
Vautour- RSA
Faugheen- JLT
More of That- World Hdle.
Dynaste- Gold Cup
 
I also availed myself of a decent ew bet at 20/1 for Champagne Fever
to win the Gold Cup. Nowt wrong with his jumping, indeed seems very efficient .Can lob along at a good pace, highly likely to stay and has tremendous attitude.
I also think Jezki can win the 2015 Champion Hurdle. Those that are dismissing his win this year are those that said he had no chance in such a quality field.
Normally I would back both horses in singles and a double. Unfortunately bookmakers will not accept the proviso- only if ridden by Geraghty -applied to a bet on Jezki.
 
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Took 50/1 Holywell for the Gold Cup. My Cheltenham rating for him is better than the ones I have for Taquin Du Seuil (25/1, non-stayer?) and O'Faolin's Boy (16/1). At the rate he's improving, he's likely to overtake Champagne Fever (14/1), Lord Windermere (12/1) and Western Warhorse (33/1).

If Ballynagour stays the trip he'd be a bigger danger but he's not quoted.

They have a year to iron out Holywell's jumping.
 
Took 50/1 Holywell for the Gold Cup. My Cheltenham rating for him is better than the ones I have for Taquin Du Seuil (25/1, non-stayer?) and O'Faolin's Boy (16/1). At the rate he's improving, he's likely to overtake Champagne Fever (14/1), Lord Windermere (12/1) and Western Warhorse (33/1).

If Ballynagour stays the trip he'd be a bigger danger but he's not quoted.

They have a year to iron out Holywell's jumping.




Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

1. Holywell>>>>Up 12lb to 157

Holywell racked up his second consecutive win at the Festival and such was the manner of his victory he was whacked up 12lb to 157 - the best rating for a staying novice chaser all week. Jonjo O'Neill's charge didn't even jump that well, but he was so well handicapped he sprinted up the hill like he'd just joined in for the final quarter of a mile (he was another one with fresh headgear on, the cheekpieces being replaced by blinkers). According to the ratings he's only 8lb off what was the required standard to win this year's Gold Cup, he's 1lb better than Grade One RSA winner O'Faolains Boy and 2lb better than stablemate and Grade One JLT winner Taquin De Seuil. If you agree with such ratings, the 50/1 available about him for the 2015 Gold Cup looks huge. And, remember, he did beat Smad Place over hurdles when second to Solwhit in last year's Liverpool Hurdle. Yet after three completed starts over fences, including one victory, BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith couldn't even bring himself to give him a mark. He told sportinglife.com: "After three runs I refused to rate him. But when he'd run a fourth time, having had four qualification runs and won two of them, I felt I'd got to give him a rating. At that point, you have to discard the hurdle rating, so the decision for me was to go either 145 or 146, the latter rating of which would have disqualified him from the Kim Muir. I let him in the Kim Muir and that was my call at that point. With hindsight, I suppose I wish I hadn't had him in that race. It would have been interesting to see how he would have got on in the other handicap. There was a Pipe horse who was second to him [Shotavodka at Catterick] and I went through him and that's why we got him to 145. The irony is that Jonjo was critical of the rating. He was one of only two people with horses in that race who contacted me beforehand to tell me he was too high. But I imagine he's pleased he was wrong now."
 
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Good shout. Can't have TDS at all. He was iffy at a number of fences and the JLT very much fell his way.

Although he's becoming a cliff horse for me now Al Ferof I've not given up on. He stumbled early doors in the Ryanair and if that is when he struck into himself he's run a cracker.

Josses Hill reminds me a little of Sprinter Sacre and not just because Barry chose a stablemate in the Supreme. He skied most of his hurdles and heading to the last he draws the eye as easily the most robust looking individual in the race, a little like SS did in the same race in 2011. I think 12s for the Arkle is fair.
 
Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

1. Holywell>>>>Up 12lb to 157

Holywell racked up his second consecutive win at the Festival and such was the manner of his victory he was whacked up 12lb to 157 - the best rating for a staying novice chaser all week. Jonjo O'Neill's charge didn't even jump that well, but he was so well handicapped he sprinted up the hill like he'd just joined in for the final quarter of a mile (he was another one with fresh headgear on, the cheekpieces being replaced by blinkers). According to the ratings he's only 8lb off what was the required standard to win this year's Gold Cup, he's 1lb better than Grade One RSA winner O'Faolains Boy and 2lb better than stablemate and Grade One JLT winner Taquin De Seuil. If you agree with such ratings, the 50/1 available about him for the 2015 Gold Cup looks huge. And, remember, he did beat Smad Place over hurdles when second to Solwhit in last year's Liverpool Hurdle. Yet after three completed starts over fences, including one victory, BHA head of handicapping Phil Smith couldn't even bring himself to give him a mark. He told sportinglife.com: "After three runs I refused to rate him. But when he'd run a fourth time, having had four qualification runs and won two of them, I felt I'd got to give him a rating. At that point, you have to discard the hurdle rating, so the decision for me was to go either 145 or 146, the latter rating of which would have disqualified him from the Kim Muir. I let him in the Kim Muir and that was my call at that point. With hindsight, I suppose I wish I hadn't had him in that race. It would have been interesting to see how he would have got on in the other handicap. There was a Pipe horse who was second to him [Shotavodka at Catterick] and I went through him and that's why we got him to 145. The irony is that Jonjo was critical of the rating. He was one of only two people with horses in that race who contacted me beforehand to tell me he was too high. But I imagine he's pleased he was wrong now."

Thanks for this, Maxbet. It's nice to see others on a similar wavelength. Can I ask where the quote came from?
 
Champagne Fever is next years gold cup winner. I never start backing horses this far in advance but this horse ticks just about every box; I've started an investment fund at 14's and I'm planning on going all year.
 
Champagne Fever is next years gold cup winner. I never start backing horses this far in advance but this horse ticks just about every box; I've started an investment fund at 14's and I'm planning on going all year.


Out & Out 2 miler
 
Just had a bit on CF at 14 and Holywell at 50. Whatever happens the interest will last a while; it's better than pissing it away on some wanky all weather dross.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
To be honest it looks like this years gold cup wasn't the strongest, so if one of the novices is half decent I could see them going close
 
He has always been viewed as a potential Gold Cup horse in Willie’s yard and I very much see it that way as well.

But I would also love to ride him in the King George at Kempton next Christmas. I just feel he has the ideal blend of speed and staying power for that test.

Champagne Fever
 
Got to jump a bit better and still got to prove he stays. Not exactly with a stable that converts as many as they should to chasing successfulyy perhaps or even gets them to a third season at all

He's a nice horse and I'm not sure what price he is, but he's far from being my idea of a bet at this stage
 
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That's already won a 3m point, a Champion Bumper, a 2m4f chase at Punchestown, and is half-brother to a 3m 3f winner? :lol::lol:

Laugh all you like, its all about opinions and only time will tell.


When Champagne Fever won his maiden point to point at Quakerstown he clocked the fastest time on the card, he personally beat six opponents that between them never posted a rating above 108 in any of their subsequent events and that to me speaks volumes for the quality of the rest of the card. Using maiden point to points as a guide to the future chances of a horse producing their best performances over those distances in my opinion is a big mistake, the quality of horses competing in those events is often so poor that a good horse can win without even coming off the bridle, hardly a stamina test but more of a guide to soundness for prospective buyers.


Champagne Fever does not seem to have a definitive turn of foot, he appears to rely more on good crisp clean and accurate jumping coupled with well judged pace by his pilot, one who can also use the characteristic nature of a particular track to compliment his horses strengths. Having stamina present in the pedigree isn’t a definitive rule or a measure that defines distance as the order in a horse, it can equally contribute to a horse being able to last out or having the requisite stamina needed for a very strongly run race. Many 2 mile Champion chase winner’s pedigrees were laden with stamina.


I don’t think he can win a Gold Cup from the front, I say this because if you look at the sectional times he set in the grade 2 Slaney Novices Hurdle at Naas, ok it was notable for the fast early pace he set, but no faster than that of the Supreme yet he stopped like shot from the fourth last and from there he actually ran it 16 seconds slower than the maiden hurdlers did earlier on the card, a result that subsequently saw him resorted to 2 miles. I am more inclined to think that once he fully fills his frame, strengthens up and refine’s his already fantastic jumping technique that he will be a formidable opponent over the minimum trip.


Let’s not forget he only just got touched off in a very good quality Arkle field, historically a relative breeding ground for future QM winners and he did this by using a tactic that his trainer had recognised as one that ought to suit the combination of speed and stamina; from the off, run and jump them ragged.


Let’s also not forget that he was touched off on the line by Western Warhorse, a horse that also has a great deal of stamina in his pedigree. By Westerner a thorough stayer himself and a fairly new conscript to the breeding world, a Sire that saw a few of his other progeny successfully strut their stuff at Cheltenham recently, all be it over much further and seemingly over the optimum distances that the various pedigree balances had suggested to the very astute trainers who successfully campaigned them accordingly.


Finally I would like to mention One Man, after years of being campaigned unsuccessfully at Cheltenham he eventually got to taste the champagne once he was put over his optimum distance at that track.
 
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The betting in the weeks leading up to Cheltenham last year led us all to believe that Champagne Fever would take in either the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett but after a bit of a gamble on the eve of the meeting he was diverted to the supreme and successfully too.

If anyone sees value in betting him now for a race that he is just as certain to take in as he was the Supreme last year, then they need to factor in the chances that he wont, when shopping for a price...33/1 would be about right, after all he still has to get there and win it even if you manage to guess right...
 
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The betting in the weeks leading up to Cheltenham last year led us all to believe that Champagne Fever would take in either the Neptune or the Albert Bartlett but after a bit of a gamble on the eve of the meeting he was diverted to the supreme and successfully too.

If anyone sees value in betting him now for a race that he is just as certain to take in as he was the Supreme last year, then they need to factor in the chances that he wont, when shopping for a price...33/1 would be about right, after all he still has to get there and win it even if you manage to guess right...

He took in the Supreme because that was the most prestigious race he was entered in. Same with the Arkle.
If Sprinter Sacre and/or Simonsig go for the QM no way does Willie run him in that. And the Ryanair is a non starter.
 
He took in the Supreme because that was the most prestigious race he was entered in. Same with the Arkle.
If Sprinter Sacre and/or Simonsig go for the QM no way does Willie run him in that. And the Ryanair is a non starter.

He took in the Supreme because he had other options in each race, likewise this years only other option was to take on his own horses...I'm more inclined to think he chose between Felix and Champagne in the respective races they took in because they were the races best suited, so why or what should change is pure guess work.
 
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